Opinion: Ukraine Plan Emboldens China on Taiwan

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00:00When you talk about what Bloomberg opinion and what they're saying here now,

00:03Karishma Bashwani has been talking about this and really saying that President Trump's peace plan

00:06for Ukraine will embolden China over the Taiwan issue. Karishma now joins us now from Singapore

00:12with more on that piece. You know, many have tried to kind of tie, I guess, the similarities

00:18between Ukraine and Taiwan. Karishma, how do you think, you know, what lessons do you think

00:23China can take from the Trump administration's Ukraine peace plan? Yeah, Yvonne, I think the

00:30first lesson that China is sort of taking from the administration's peace plan is that everything

00:37is up for grabs, right? Like when we first saw the sort of initial details about what appeared to be

00:44quite a vague peace plan for Ukraine from the U.S., there was a lot of confusion about where it was

00:49actually coming from, how many points were in it. And certainly this week, there is expected to be

00:54a little bit more clarity. But I think the big takeaway from that, certainly from scholars and

01:00academics that I've been speaking to, was that China saw an opportunity here in terms of the kinds

01:07of concessions that it looked like Washington was willing to give Moscow in an attempt to come to

01:14some sort of peace agreement. Now, this is something that has been expressed before,

01:20the relationship between Taiwan and Ukraine, most notably, of course, by the former Japanese

01:26Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, back in 2022, when he talked about the fact that first Ukraine,

01:32then East Asia, in a reference that many took to be the kind of precarious situation that Taiwan

01:39would, could well find itself in if bigger countries are allowed to go in and sort of,

01:47you know, find a way to challenge the sovereignty of other places and other territories. And I think

01:54this is one of the key concerns for Taiwan as it looks at what is happening between Ukraine,

02:00Russia and the United States, but certainly opens a window of opportunity for China.

02:04Karishma, we know, of course, the long term goal for Beijing for Taiwan, and that's reunification. But

02:13do you think what's happening right now and this prospect that we see a deal between Ukraine and

02:19Russia changes Beijing's calculations, or maybe its timeline as well?

02:26I think that the timeline and the calculations have always been pretty clear. If you look at the

02:32white paper that Beijing put out back in 2022 about how it sees unification with Taiwan,

02:40the line from the Chinese has always been that this is part of the plan, that it's going to happen

02:46either through peaceful means or by force. And it's a very clear roadmap as to how this fits into the

02:52national rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. It's part of Xi Jinping's legacy-making project.

02:58And I think what we've seen in the lead up and certainly in the run up in the last few years

03:03is that consistently, the idea seems to be to try and take Taiwan without having to fire a shot. And

03:11what that means is, you know, increasing the kinds of military activities you see that the Chinese have

03:18been doing around the island, but also putting diplomatic pressure wherever Beijing can do that.

03:24You've seen the rhetoric against Japan in recent weeks, even with diplomatic allies that Taiwan

03:30has left. There is that consistent pressure. So I think that it doesn't change the calculus so much

03:35as it allows there to be an opportunity for China to see how is the U.S. going to manage this peace plan

03:43with Ukraine and Russia and what that could mean for Taiwan.

03:46And this is also coming at a time when I think President Trump is trying to seek a better relationship

03:55with China here right now. Where does that leave Taiwan? How has Taipei responded?

04:02Well, in a really precarious position, and I would argue that it is in one of its most dangerous positions

04:08that we've seen in recent years. Now, what we've seen from the Taiwanese president is an announcement

04:13that there will be more money spent on defense, something like $40 billion. I think that is a

04:18very wise move. Of course, the fact that it has to go through a gridlocked, a politically gridlocked

04:24parliament is going to be challenging for him. But it is as much a message for Beijing as it is for

04:30Washington. President Donald Trump has been ambiguous. I think it's fair to say about his position on

04:38whether the United States would come to Taiwan's defense. I think there is a lot of concern in

04:44Taipei about this. And I think it's something that the Chinese see as an opportunity to exploit. As you

04:51point out, Yvonne, what Trump seems to be very keen on doing is cementing that relationship with Xi

04:57Jinping. There are plans for both leaders to visit each other's countries in 2026. And I think that

05:03politicians in Taipei right now are going to be looking at 2026 with a great deal of trepidation

05:10and concern.

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