00:00And Min Min, it seems like there is really no let-up right now when it comes to commentaries on Chinese state media.
00:07Why is Beijing responding so strongly to this?
00:10Yeah, it's because China really sees this as a strategic shift in Japan's stance away from strategic ambiguity, right?
00:17And you can see this People's Daily Commentary here highlighting a dangerous direction in Takayichi's domestic and foreign policies
00:24and that militarism has often used, Japan's militarism has always used existential crisis as a pretext for external aggression.
00:34And remember that Takayichi is early on in her term as prime minister.
00:38So China really wants to set the tone right at the beginning of a term and fire this warning shot,
00:43not just to Japan, but any other countries looking at this unfolding and thinking about whether they might want to shift their stance on Taiwan as well.
00:51We know that China has called on Takayichi to change or retract her comments, which she hasn't done.
00:56So we'll have to see how that diplomatic meeting today pans out.
00:59But you flip the board, you take a look at what Global Times is saying as well.
01:03And it's hitting back at this contraction in Japan's GDP, right?
01:07And saying that if Japan continues down this erroneous path, they could see more factors,
01:13including geopolitical tensions weighing down on Japan's economy.
01:17And we already got that warning from a social media post linked to state media over the weekend,
01:21saying China could cut economic, diplomatic and military ties with Taiwan.
01:28And elsewhere, we are also seeing some posts from Global Times as well.
01:33If we flip the board, we are...
01:36Can we flip the board, please?
01:38So Global Times also taking this cartoon, really talking about the DPP.
01:43This is the leader, the Taiwanese party that is led by Lai Chengde.
01:48You can see the sleeve there with DPP really showing that it's pouring oil on fire.
01:53And it's criticizing Lai Chengde for endorsing what Takayichi said and saying that Taiwan is acting as this political megaphone for the improper rhetoric from Beijing.
02:04And this comes after Lai Chengde cautioned China, calling it to be restrained to act as a responsible major power and not be the troublemaker in this region.
02:14And if that sounds familiar, it's the sort of rhetoric we offered here from Beijing as well.
02:19And we are also seeing state media reporting that Chinese film distributors are delaying the screening of some Japanese film,
02:28citing a decline in box office numbers and cooling audience sentiment.
02:33So this demon slayer had opened in China on Friday with strong box office numbers.
02:39But analysts are saying that they could see a decline in the box office numbers in the coming days.
02:44OK. The other thing that...
02:46And we already saw quite a stark reaction in markets on this specific theme yesterday.
02:50The travel advisory from Beijing advising effectively against travel to Japan.
02:57Have we seen any cancellations or any signs that large groups of tourists are cancelling their trips to Japan?
03:05Yeah. So preliminarily, based on what we have been talking, what we have been hearing from sources,
03:10from some of China's biggest travel platforms, we are not seeing any cancellations yet.
03:15But still, we're early on, right, in this cycle.
03:18And it's possible that maybe people have some sunk cost into their trips.
03:21Maybe in the future, they might be, you know, we might see a decline in travel demand.
03:26But on social media, we are seeing pretty nationalistic comments, especially on Weibo, where we tend to see older audiences.
03:32And here you can see someone saying, I'm never going to Japan in this lifetime, even if it's a free trip.
03:37And some others are saying that, you know, the Japanese don't seem to be repenting.
03:41And we should really plant our flags and put our troops on the Senkaku Islands, the disputed islands, to teach them a lesson.
03:48The issue of national sovereignty is not negotiable.
03:51But elsewhere, if you look at Xiaohongshu, where we tend to see younger audiences,
03:54they are the ones that are saying, you know, life is life, politics is politics.
03:58I'm still going to go on my trips because you can't really get refunds for some of the attraction tickets.
04:03So it doesn't really matter, you know, as long as they're clear-headed about where they are.
04:07And there's a funny comment saying that actually only 10% of people have passports in China,
04:11and yet they can't go to 90% of countries.
04:13So perhaps from a disgruntled person on social media.
04:17Yeah.
04:17That seems to take another issue.
04:18Yeah, we'll check the numbers on that one.
04:20We'll see.
04:20But yeah, it's good to get kind of what we're seeing on social media there and what the reaction has been so far.
04:26I want to bring in Karishma Bashwani, our Bloomberg Opinion columnist.
04:29Karishma, you've been talking about how these comments from Takahichi on China
04:33has really resurrected this sort of wolf warrior diplomacy.
04:37You're saying that this might be a mistake.
04:39Why is that?
04:42Yeah, well, Yvonne, you know, picking up on what both Min Min and our Japan economics reporter was saying,
04:48super interesting how China has reacted to this.
04:51And actually, this kind of strident rhetoric is something we haven't seen for a while from China.
04:57This is the kind of diplomacy that's called wolf warrior diplomacy.
05:02We saw it in sort of 2010, 2020.
05:06But it was dialed back a bit because the sense was that this kind of rhetoric was very unproductive.
05:12It didn't really fit in with President Xi Jinping's goals of trying to put forward a more sort of reliable, stable China on the world stage.
05:21But I think when it comes to issues like this, the red lines for China, as Min Min was saying,
05:27this is an extremely sensitive issue for China.
05:29And I think this is when you see both the state and social media aspects coming out in this way
05:35and being so strident and vocal about this issue.
05:38Well, risking asking the obvious here, Karishma, you've outlined some of that.
05:45If you wanted to upset Beijing, they pretty much tick all the boxes here.
05:48Why is Beijing so upset?
05:51Well, you know, you've been talking about it already, David.
05:54And the issue of Taiwan is something that China sees as a factor, a part of its national sovereignty.
06:01It is not it has not been quiet about that.
06:04It is not shy about saying that.
06:06And I think the discussions that we're seeing taking place today or rather that will take place today
06:11between Japan and China will go a long way towards telling us exactly where Beijing and Tokyo will stand
06:17in this sort of new era of their relationship between the new Prime Minister Takeuchi and how she manages this.
06:24Now, I think it's worth saying what Japan has consistently said about this is that the comments did not imply in any way
06:32a deviation from Japan's position, official position on Taiwan.
06:37And if you look through the defense papers, it is always talked about how Taiwan is something that worries it in terms of national security.
06:45I think that Takeuchi was probably unusually blunt in her comments.
06:50And, you know, to some extent, she's also playing to a domestic gallery here.
06:54And this does play this issue does play quite well at home with a significant proportion of the Japanese public looking at the rising,
07:03what they see assertiveness of China in the neighborhood and thinking about whether that means that Japan does need to increase defense spending.
07:12Of course, the pressure from Washington as well. And I think that is, you know, all part of the mix here.
07:18But it's played out in this rather dramatic fashion between these two historic rivals.
07:24And what does it tell you about how China operates, Karishma, when countries depended on it for their growth?
07:30Well, I think what it tells you is that when you have a situation where China sees it, you know, this is a major issue of national sovereignty,
07:40it will not give an edge at all. And we've seen these kinds of things happen before, haven't we, Yvonne?
07:46With Australia, for instance, when, you know, the spat between Australia and China went on for something like three years.
07:53And I think what Japan can take away from this is actually lessons from Canberra, how those negotiations and those talks went over those three years
08:03with China slamming down in many ways, you know, trade sanctions, travel sanctions, all of it.
08:09Very similar to what's being threatened today. But I think what Australia did was push back smartly, negotiate very firmly.
08:17And that is something that, you know, if I was sitting in the Japanese foreign policy team,
08:23that's the kind of advice that I think would be useful for Takechi and her team.
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