00:00So let's bring in my console here. Mike, what do you think of this possibly using the trimmed mean inflation
00:05metric as a way to not justify but point to policy easing?
00:11You know, as my fellow Michael brought up, it was actually a really misguided signal during the peak of inflation.
00:16I think it meant many people to think inflation would be much more contained in 2021, including Chair Powell, Jackson
00:22Hole,
00:22and then also later thought made a lot of people think that you needed a recession to bring down inflation
00:27when it did ultimately increase in 2022.
00:30So it has a weird lag quality to it. The big thing I would say about Trameen is it has
00:34picked up in recent months.
00:35I think a big, you know, you think of the two big changes since January when people were thinking that
00:39there were going to be more cuts.
00:40One is that the labor market looks a lot better than it did in December, November of last year.
00:44Unemployment is a lot more flat. You know, job growth is probably much more near steady state.
00:48And then separately, inflation looks broader and picked up more, even if you look through the tariffs and now the
00:54energy shock.
00:55Non-housing services have picked up pretty dramatically in the last, you know, three to six months.
00:59Much higher than they were in 2024. And I think that has a lot of people nervous that all the
01:03changes and all the things going on in the economy
01:05might be shifting things enough that, you know, we might definitely taking cuts off the table for the near term.
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