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  • 2 days ago
El profesor de la Universidad Sergio Arboleda, Miguel Benito analiza el primer round entre los candidatos a la Casa Blanca. Ni Clinton, ni Trump ganaron más votos todavía, asegura.

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00:00How did Clinton win?
00:14Well, it's a debate in which we didn't win many things,
00:20I think it won by Clinton.
00:23Especially because the good points of Trump
00:25were more at the beginning
00:26and the Clinton was more at the end.
00:27So, the feeling of the debate is that Clinton is the one who, very little,
00:33obtains some benefit.
00:35But in reality, it was a debate in which they were...
00:38They really supported their support bases,
00:41but they didn't expand to anyone else
00:43and I don't think they won some added votes.
00:47I think that in that sense,
00:48no one of the two candidates can be happy if their idea was to win votes.
00:52If their idea was to maintain and consolidate what they have,
00:55I think it was the two, more or less.
00:57For me, the panorama of the next debate is interesting.
01:02It's very open and makes the debates
01:04gain interest.
01:06Gain interest in the time when they don't have decided anything
01:08and that the polls still maintain a very small distance
01:11in favor of Clinton,
01:12they generate a space that makes them interesting.
01:15They have to see if they have such an audience as this one.
01:17The first debate is to have more audience
01:20and then they go down because they are repeticions
01:23and repeticions.
01:23So, there may not change much.
01:25But in that sense,
01:27I think there is a space that makes it interesting,
01:29that makes it interesting,
01:30that makes it interesting,
01:31that makes it that,
01:31as everything is for decided,
01:33that there is a lot to talk.
01:35And that gives an added value.
01:37And that is the expectations.
01:38But,
01:39a Trump more at the attack,
01:41that is what he has taken care of in this first debate.
01:44Trump was very comedic,
01:46very guionized,
01:47maybe very reassured.
01:48The strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates
01:50I think are the same
01:52that they have been manifested for a long time.
01:55Trump,
01:56for example,
01:57has serious problems
01:59when reaching the minorities
02:00because the tone in which he refers to them
02:03is quite problematic,
02:04if not despective in many cases.
02:07In many cases,
02:07the relationship with some of the neighboring countries,
02:09the case of Mexico,
02:10they are very problematic for him.
02:12And there are some other issues
02:15for him,
02:15for example,
02:15the of his taxes.
02:16The fact that he has not given
02:20his financial status
02:22to compare those with Clinton
02:24is a problem
02:25on which he will attack.
02:28Precisely because,
02:29as he said yesterday,
02:31his credit
02:32is to be a success,
02:34to be a success.
02:35Well,
02:35the only thing to be a success
02:37is to be a success.
02:38So,
02:38in that sense,
02:39I think those are the elements
02:40for which Trump
02:41can be more criticized.
02:43Also,
02:43he can be more attacked.
02:44His strength,
02:45the best points he has
02:47in the debates
02:48are when he is presented
02:48as anti-establishment,
02:50the man of the people,
02:51the man of the people,
02:52the man of the truth.
02:53Even when he says things
02:54very popular
02:54like
02:55my only concern
02:57was my business
02:57and I,
02:58if I had to be a little
03:00fuller
03:01and move on
03:01the margins of legality,
03:03I was willing to do it
03:04because it was
03:04for the good of my business
03:05and that's what I will do
03:06for the United States.
03:08When I assume that
03:09I am the profile
03:09and I say to Hillary Clinton
03:11why these ideas
03:12that you have here
03:13you don't have told me
03:14in the 30 years
03:14that you have in career
03:15political career.
03:15I, however,
03:16I have started
03:16and I have demonstrated
03:17that I can get very high
03:19in career political career
03:19with very little experience,
03:21with very little background.
03:22I think
03:23that there is a good
03:24to look at their
03:25base of voters
03:28Trump
03:28that,
03:29that,
03:29also,
03:30he supports the
03:32impopularity
03:32of Hillary Clinton.
03:33Hillary Clinton is very
03:34popular.
03:35And that is the main problem
03:36of Hillary Clinton,
03:37on the one hand,
03:38the impopularity,
03:38acquired from the time
03:40that she was even
03:40the first dame,
03:40even,
03:41and,
03:42on the other hand,
03:45that is the
03:47professional political
03:47professional
03:48for excellence,
03:49perhaps,
03:49very prepared
03:50for all the
03:51tasks that she is
03:52thinking about
03:53but,
03:55too much
03:56in the system,
03:57which is also
03:57what,
03:58in the primaries,
03:59the Democrats,
04:00put in major problems.
04:02So, in that sense,
04:03that is,
04:04perhaps,
04:04the most difficult
04:06to empathize.
04:07She is a person
04:08very prepared
04:09but,
04:09with the most difficult
04:10to feel
04:11sympathy.
04:12So,
04:12those are the most
04:13the most difficult
04:13in the case of Clinton.
04:17the most difficult
04:19and she is trying to
04:20humanize a little bit
04:21her profile,
04:22the references to her daughter,
04:23the references to her particular
04:25that she did
04:26in the Democratic Convention.
04:28I think that
04:29those are the points
04:30on which she will grow.
04:32There is a greater
04:32knowledge of the exterior
04:33and there is a majority
04:34of Republicans
04:36who have abandoned
04:38Trump
04:38and that can be
04:39another problem
04:40for Trump.
04:41The fact that
04:41his operation
04:42on the ground
04:43is much more
04:43the most difficult
04:44and he has
04:45no
04:46no
04:46no
04:46no
04:46no
04:46no
04:46no
04:46no
04:47no
04:48no
04:48no
04:48no
04:48no
04:49no
04:49no
04:49I
04:49the
04:50the
04:50the
04:50the
05:17people
05:18I
05:18know
05:19and the cases of predictions and the cases of bets, however, are giving much advantage to Clinton.
05:24And I think that they, who are playing with money and some specialists in predictions,
05:29that have been announced in previous elections, they are giving a advantage to Clinton of a 70-30,
05:36which is a very considerable advantage.
05:38I think Clinton will win with a little more than the margin that is presented in the polls.
05:45But this is complicated to see and there is still time to make mistakes in the elections, in the campaign,
05:52because, at the moment, every time that Clinton has had a disadvantage,
05:56he has done something that has desperdicated, the scandals of the emails, the disease,
06:01all that kind of stuff has been debilitating and has been reducing its advantage
06:05and leaving Trump always at a distance possible.
06:08And Trump, at the moment, is the candidate improbable,
06:10he was very difficult to suppose that he was going to get to this point of the question,
06:14and, however, has arrived, with which, in that sense, I do a chance to Trump for that aspect of it.
06:20But I think that, in reality, we would have to say that Clinton will continue.
06:25Also, for another factor, the popularity of Obama is being high in the way,
06:29much more high, in fact, than what has been during all of his presidency in general.
06:32It is one of his most high popularity of popularity,
06:35with which, I think that that also pushes Clinton to go up.
06:41I think that, in reality, President Kim can...
06:41But I think that that's it.
06:41The way to Trump is to do something that is...
06:42It is one of his most high popularity of Obama's
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