00:00Getting down the business here on the Prediction Markets right here on the early line for a Tuesday morning.
00:05It's Donnie Wright's along with Joe Ranieri. Now we welcome in Joe Cervega.
00:08Joe, how we doing this morning on a Tuesday?
00:12Hey guys, it's a good Tuesday. It's Champions League Tuesday, so soccer is on the docket.
00:17Everyone's happy about that.
00:19Everybody's happy with that. I'm happy to have a guest on here because I don't know anything about the Champions
00:23League.
00:24That's why we're bringing the professionals. That can certainly help me out as well.
00:27So let's get right to it here on the Kelsey Marketplace, having some fun with the Champions League final matchup
00:33as it could sit.
00:34The favorite right now, Joe, sits Bayron versus Arsenal, followed by PSG versus Arsenal, and then Bayron versus Atletico.
00:41If you were a handicapping slash investment seeker in this, which way makes the most sense here on which way
00:48you'd like to go?
00:50Well, to pump the tires of the sports grid prediction, Mark and Model, as we were on Byron since January.
00:56So another situation where we got in early at about $0.16 for them.
01:03They have the toughest matchup of the final four going against PSG, who is a really hot team right now.
01:10Their defense is stellar.
01:12They play a real good possession game, and they hold their opponents to very limited chances, not great chances.
01:18They've had three clean sheets in their last four games.
01:23You know, they looked really good getting to this spot in the tournament, and they've had a little bit of
01:28easier road than Byron.
01:30But I think Byron is still to play here.
01:33They are the favorites for a reason.
01:35They have probably the best player in the Champions League in Harry Kane.
01:41He's been on a mission, scoring like crazy in this tournament.
01:44I think he's scored like six of his last seven games, ten goals in the Champions League.
01:50So he is a guy that PSG will definitely be keyed on, and they do have the defenders to sort
01:55of key on him.
01:56But he's the guy that really makes it go for Byron.
02:02It kind of feels like the final before the final, because of all the teams left, Joe, right, those two
02:07are the best.
02:08Whoever wins this game is going to be the favorite in the finals, right, over Atletico and Arsenal.
02:14It just feels like Arsenal, the public, is going to run to the window with Arsenal as well.
02:20100%.
02:21Atletico is a great story.
02:23They're sort of that, you know, that David story out of Madrid.
02:28You know, Real Madrid was a big favorite coming in, multi-time champion.
02:33They got eliminated by Byron.
02:36Barcelona is the other side in Madrid that, you know, really is the public team over there.
02:42Atletico is a nice story, but they're going to be in tough against Arsenal.
02:44Arsenal had a great campaign early on.
02:48They were undefeated.
02:49So they're definitely the favorite over in the other bracket.
02:52And it really is, like, this is the Champions League before the Champions League.
02:56And PSG and Byron are the two best teams of the four.
03:00So whoever wins that, it'll be, if Arsenal gets to root, it'll be a little bit closer between those.
03:06But whoever wins this two-leg run is going to be the favorite going into the final.
03:13Taking a look at some of these teams to win it overall.
03:15Bram Munich, they're trading at 38% right now, which is $100, pays back $264.
03:20If you take a look at Arsenal, currently their contract to the yes is $0.27, $100, pays back $371.
03:26And then if you go down to PSG, similar to what we're seeing from Arsenal and also Bayern Munich, $100
03:31investment pays back $385.
03:32And then there's Atletico there, down at 12%, $100 investment there, pays back $834.
03:40Coming up this week here, and how about this?
03:42It's PSG taking on FC Bayern, as well as Atletico and Arsenal.
03:47And I believe that is today.
03:49If we have that correct, that is today?
03:52Yeah, we got PSG and Byron today.
03:53So today's the big leg in Paris.
03:56Yeah.
03:56It's about a, it's pretty much a point-toss game.
03:59I could see, I could see PSG taking this game.
04:02You know, their resume has been sort of 1-0, sort of 1-0, I should say, games.
04:07Really, like I said, really great defensive team.
04:10But Byron at home is another beast.
04:12So they've scored a ton of goals in Germany.
04:16So it's a tough one.
04:18I would lean towards PSG in today's match.
04:22But I think Byron can get it done at home next week and get over the aggregate hump.
04:29Yeah.
04:29The problem is, right, the overall winner, we had said it.
04:34PSG or Byron, whoever gets in there, is probably going to be, especially if it's Atletico,
04:38they're going to be a monster favorite.
04:40And is there any room to look at the dog in a possible upset here?
04:44Or is it just whichever one wins today, just get them ready.
04:48Jump in now.
04:49It's your last chance to hop in on that market overall.
04:54Yeah, I would say jump in now.
04:57Even though I have Byron, PSG is a smart play.
05:01If you're leaning to that side before today's match, because if it ends up a draw or anything like that,
05:06that Byron is still going to stay where they are.
05:09So, you know, if you sort of have any doubts about staying on my Byron train,
05:16PSG is the play.
05:17Atletico, great story.
05:19You know, they play a really solid defensive set.
05:22Great manager over there.
05:23But I don't think they can get it done against Arsenal without the home field advantage.
05:29And Arsenal is just too strong of a team all around.
05:32And also a very good defensive team.
05:34Plays a lot of great possession ball.
05:37So, I think your best bet is to get in on PSG here.
05:41They are, you know, sort of a harder team.
05:44They've been really good internationally and they're legal on.
05:49So, if you are going to consider one of the other four teams, PSG is the team.
05:54And to do it before today's match, you know, where they are point-flip game.
05:59How about this one, Joe?
06:00You take a look also from the Champions League and sort of whirl it over to the English Premier League.
06:05Because you take a look right now in the Calci marketplace.
06:07Arsenal had a 51% chance to win the EPL, followed by Man City at 50%.
06:11And you look at the standings right now, 73 points there for Arsenal, 70 for Man City.
06:16Any implications on winning the Champions League and also the EPL?
06:20And also, is it right that Man City currently trading right there with Arsenal in the EPL?
06:26I think Arsenal is the team in EPL.
06:30They've been just monster all season.
06:33I don't think Man City is going to be able to make a background with this much runway left.
06:39So, I'm definitely on Arsenal.
06:41In the English Premier League, I don't think they are going to win the Champions League.
06:47I think they are more focused on the EPL, having, you know, run that table pretty much all season.
06:53So, I think they are going to decide to prioritize that over the Champions League.
06:58Not that they're, you know, going to be a walkover in any stretch of the imagination.
07:03But I think Man City just doesn't have enough time to make up that ground.
07:07And, you know, it was tough to catch Arsenal out of the gates as fast and as quick as they
07:13came out this season.
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