00:00I wonder first what it says about the relationship between the GCC countries amidst this war and also, you know,
00:08what it means for production.
00:09Can the UAE put more oil barrels on the market without the constraints of OPEC?
00:17Well, in answer to the last question, that's really at the heart of the issue.
00:22The UAE has long kind of pressed to be able to produce more oil without any kind of constraints from
00:31OPEC or, you know, it's been one of the countries that has been eager to add more barrels.
00:36And by doing this, once the war is over, this gives it an opportunity to do so.
00:41In terms of the kind of unity of Gulf countries, I think that really, in a way, this is an
00:47opportunity for the UAE to do something when it's not going to cause a market stir.
00:54We know when the market kind of or when the situation in the Middle East hopefully returns to normal, that
01:01the UAE is going, all of the countries are going to need to try and ramp up and get supply
01:05to the market.
01:06That's that's obvious. And right now they can't. There's a big shortfall that needs to be recovered.
01:12So they and others are going to be doing that. And in the early stages, you know, this gives them
01:18an opportunity to do that like everybody else.
01:21The UAE, of course, stuck like most of the Gulf countries are in terms of exporting its oil while the
01:28Strait of Hormuz is closed.
01:30If you take a look at the map, you know, they need to get up and around and through the
01:36Strait in order to get their oil out.
01:38How much can they can they put on the put? How many barrels can they put on the market right
01:43now, Alaric?
01:44This makes no difference here and now, which is why you see no sustained reaction in prices, really.
01:50There was an immediate kind of move. But in practice, until there's a clear kind of change in the security
01:57situation in the Strait of Hormuz and in terms of regional production, this is a kind of a moot moment.
02:05There is not a lot of difference in supply that's going to come in the next week, in the next
02:10month.
02:10And, you know, even even when Hormuz does start to normalize, it's not going to be an overnight process.
02:17So, you know, even then, the addition of barrels, both in terms of production and exports, is going to take
02:23a while.
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