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00:05the United States and its partners have launched operation epic fury two months
00:12after America and Israel went to war with Iran what's the cost here at home
00:20it's just bunkers we just filled up the van and it's just cost us like just short
00:24of 130 pounds it was a real shock to the system my first initial thought was
00:29how am I going to afford this I've been traveling across the UK to find out just how big the
00:35shock
00:35could be well it looks like it goes on for miles we could do with a period of stability across
00:43the
00:43world because that's what's good for business it seems so far away but because it's in such an
00:51important part of the world it impacts us today and hopefully this will not happen but it will
00:57impact us a lot more tomorrow Iran's around 3,000 miles away but the cost is already beginning to hit
01:18home the first time many of us feel the impact of the war is when we fill up our cars
01:23jump in the
01:24middle and then get your belt okay Naomi and her 10 year old daughter Rizia live in Chorley Lancashire
01:34hello Rizia has a serious medical condition which affects many other vital organs she has regular
01:42hospital appointments more than 30 miles away so the family's van is crucial to them well it's just bonkers
01:49we just filled up the van and it's just cost us like just short of 130 pounds that how's that
01:55doable
01:56to just carry on you know like filling up filling up your van and you know each time
02:03oh right okay okay okay Naomi says the family's spending around 30 pounds more a week on diesel
02:11since the war started what are you going to do as a family in terms of preparing yourself for
02:17whether things could even get more expensive as the year goes on I don't want my children to see
02:21that you know we struggle maybe because we have to go to hospital appointments I don't want the
02:29children to see how worried we are because for us it's not an option it is scary to think you
02:36know
02:36what the next few months is going to look like if fuel carries on rising um yeah it's scary
02:45the cost of diesel has risen 35% since the war began at the end of February petrol is up
02:5319%
02:59it's all because of the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz the narrow waterway off the coast of Iran in
03:07normal
03:07times around a fifth of the world's oil trade flows through it after US and Israeli strikes Iran
03:15retaliated in part by threatening shipping in the straits there's now a fragile ceasefire but the
03:23strait remains effectively closed
03:28so when you suddenly close the strait you cut off the supply of some really important commodities
03:38but also the oil producers have nowhere to store their oil their gas if they can't get it out so
03:47what
03:48do they do they shut down production and when you shut down production it's not like turning a light
03:54switch on and off it takes time to restart it businesses up and down the UK are also feeling
04:04the effects of rising fuel costs this haulage firm in Wiltshire runs a fleet of 85 trucks transporting
04:12everything from tinned peaches to garden furniture it has 140 employees we handle on the site here around
04:23500 deliveries a day so the international fleet go all over Europe
04:29the fleet runs on diesel
04:32how much diesel are you you're putting into this this tank here 710 litres and just on the other
04:37side on the same vehicle another 320 litre tank on here so yeah over a thousand leads of diesel
04:42how much is that going to cost today somewhere in the region excluding about about 1500 pounds
04:55toby's monthly diesel costs have shot up from around 260 000 pounds to 340 000 pounds
05:03that's a rise of around 80 grand i've never seen it drunk like that before never toby's firm passes
05:12those extra diesel costs onto its clients nobody likes telling the customers they got a poor uh pay
05:18some more money for for what we do for them every week um you know essentially every friday we send
05:23them an email saying your costs are going up again next week and it's not a very nice message to
05:27deliver
05:27um but unfortunately it's an essential one for us
05:36and it's not just diesel toby's also had to cope with increased costs for oil and tires
05:43he fears what could happen if the standoff in the strait of hormuz drags on the most significant
05:49factor will be if we start seeing fuel shortages across the country that will then
05:53realistically have an impact upon goods delivered to supermarkets
06:02follow one of toby's trucks out of the depot and it's clear the economic impact of the war
06:08is rippling across the uk now the cost of transportation is higher and that gets translated
06:17to the supermarket shelf and what you start seeing is a specific price shock energy becomes a much
06:24wider price shock inflation so there's a there's a ripple effect throughout the chain so if it's
06:31expensive for the transport company it goes all the way back down eventually to the consumer
06:36correct and the consumer unfortunately is the one entity that can't pass on the price to somebody else
06:43because they are the final consumer so they have a choice consume things that are more expensive or
06:50consume less and both are bad for the economy so this is our bottling plant um we bottle can and
07:06keg in
07:15this area and how much are you producing so we do about three million liters a year mark lily is
07:23a customer of toby's haulage firm
07:26he runs a family cider business in somerset as well as the increased transport costs
07:32he's facing another problem this is our pasteurizer so this is run off steam which comes from our
07:40boiler down in the boiler room which is run off heating oil heating oil energy uh prices have more
07:46than doubled in price so it's costing us more than three thousand pounds per month since the war started
07:51since the war starters yeah and what sort of impact is that having the new business uh yeah it's big
07:56so far we haven't passed any costs on to our customers so at the moment we're taking the complete
08:01hit um so it's pretty much wiping out our profit for now so how is that sustainable it's not sustainable
08:08we'll have to put our prices up which will then the consumer will have to pay it so unless fuel
08:13prices
08:14come back down then our prices will have to go up
08:19businesses like marks aren't getting government support with the cost of heating oil but the
08:25government is giving 53 million pounds to low-income households who use it other household energy rates
08:34are capped but that caps almost certain to rise in july so the biggest impact we've seen so far from
08:41this war in iran is on disruption to energy infrastructure and the trading of energy around the world
08:46and that will in the end hit all of our energy bills we've been lucky in the uk that the
08:53energy
08:53price cap and the system that we have has meant that apart from people on heating oil energy bills have
08:58actually fallen in april by about 117 pounds but we know now pretty much for sure that that will reverse
09:05when the energy price cap comes in july and it could increase further by another 100 or 200 pounds
09:34it's just cost us 850 pounds for three months
09:38our gas and electricity bill has just absolutely rocketed
09:45rizia's health condition means she needs the house to be kept warm
09:50she also relies on medical devices that use extra electricity rizia has multiple devices
09:57like she has to use a nebulizer sometimes up to three times a day 15 minutes of a nebulizer um
10:04and a feeding pump that has to be on charge or or you know being plugged in overnight so
10:11yeah we're we're starting to see a massive increase you know it's not it's not just like
10:16oh it's gone up a little bit you know compared to a few years ago how's it
10:20it's sustainable for you know survivable okay well done
10:28if the energy price cap does rise in july the warmer weather means most of us won't feel the
10:35squeeze straight away what will really matter is what happens to those energy bills in the winter
10:40which if we're honest is much more uncertain only about 15 of our energy bills happen in that third
10:47quarter of the year over the nice hot summer but for the winter if they remain high that will be
10:52a much bigger struggle for families after russia's invasion of ukraine previous governments spent
11:01around 75 billion pounds on help with energy bills including a 400 pound rebate for every household
11:10this time it looks like any government supports will be much more targeted
11:15i can confirm to the house that contingency planning is taking place for every eventuality
11:23so that we can keep costs down for everyone and provide support for those who need it most
11:30what we've heard from the government is that they'll think about targeted support and really
11:35that there's a big picture question here too which is as we go through yet another shock to the economy
11:40what sort of support can we expect from a government what sort of support can a government provide and
11:46i think the government and the public finances have run out of road to be able to simply borrow and
11:52borrow
11:52each time in order to provide this very generous level of support
12:03i'm lucy fleming and i'm the managing director and owner of pm mendy's international limited
12:10the iran war hasn't just affected energy prices it's disrupted supply chains for businesses too
12:25so i think a lot of people don't realize that a war thousands of miles away in the middle east
12:30would
12:30affect you know a business in in the uk it's really challenging because if we absorb the costs the only
12:38way that that you know that that can go is off our bottom line and off of our profits so
12:41it makes
12:42margins very tight and and it's very stressful lucy imports doors by sea from china and indonesia
12:56they used to come through the middle east but fears about the safety of shipping
13:00means the routes had to change they used to take four weeks to get here from china or indonesia
13:07now they have to go around the cape of africa to get to us so now
13:10you are waiting eight weeks to get containers and then to have to pay more for it as well but
13:15i think it's one of those things that you keep an eye on your numbers and you just look and
13:20see
13:20right have we done everything we can to be as efficient as possible
13:23and then the last resort is to pass that on to the customers
13:28there's this concept of choke points and choke points are areas where if something happens if they
13:35are choked you start having all sorts of disruptions the world has become subject
13:41to more violent and more frequent shocks that impact these choke points
13:49this is a tenanted farm that we rent
13:53the crisis in the strait of hormuz is also having a big impact on farmers
13:59and that could affect the cost of our food caroline harriet is a farmer in west sussex
14:06and a regional chair of the national farmers union
14:08it's a mixed rotation of lots of different crops wheat barley grass
14:15caroline also produces beef milk and lamb for our supermarkets
14:23she relies on diesel to run her farm machinery unfortunately the fuel price increase has come
14:30at a time when we're super busy in the winter you won't be on your land because it's too wet
14:35but in the spring with these fantastic conditions we've got now this is time for putting our seeds
14:40in for our next crop so yes we'll be using a lot of fuel it's come at a very difficult
14:45time for farmers
14:49but that's not all around a third of the world's fertilizer trade that travels by sea goes through
14:56the strait of hormuz and right now hardly any is getting through that's pushing up the price
15:03british farmers are paying for theirs luckily we'd bought the fertilizer that we're using now
15:09last year and that cost us 330 pounds a ton now if we went to buy the same fertilizer
15:15it would be 550 pounds a ton
15:20it's a massive impact for anybody that didn't have it in store that has got to buy it now
15:26and for us going forward our barns are going to be empty of fertilizer we're going to have to buy
15:32some
15:32new fertilizer and we've got to make a decision what are we going to grow this winter what can we
15:38afford to grow we're halfway through this crop and we've got to feed it so we have no option you've
15:45can't just leave it there because you're not going to have a viable crop at the end of the day
15:50what are you really worried about going forward long term if things don't improve farmers global
15:56volatility the uncertainty we're in ireland we've got shy on 70 million people to feed we need to know
16:03that we've got stocks of wheat and barley we need to grow good crops and we need to ensure that
16:09we have
16:09that fertilizer at a price which means that the end product we get a profit on
16:17for now many farmers are taking the hits and absorbing price rises for things like fuel and
16:23fertilizer but unless costs reduce they may well have to start passing them on and the price of food could
16:31rise
16:40the energy shocks having an even bigger impact on companies producing crops indoors
16:47this is 50 000 square meters or five hectares we've got four greenhouses exactly the same size on this
16:53site all interconnected the greenhouse growers is one of the uk's biggest producers of tomatoes and
17:00cucumbers john swain oversees three sites including this one in cambridgeshire our whole site produces
17:08about 30 million cucumbers a year 30 million cucumbers a year and we can only manage that because we've got
17:13supplementary lighting in here and there's six and a half thousand light fittings in this block and we
17:19use that to extend the day length to make sure that the plant gets the light energy that it needs
17:23and
17:24enables us to get those really high yields british growers supply around one in five of the cucumbers
17:31and one in six of the tomatoes we eat
17:36because of our climate most are produced in heated greenhouses
17:48it's good isn't it it looks like it goes on for miles it does hundreds of meters anyway
17:58despite investing in the latest green technology to maximize efficiency
18:03this company still has to use a vast amount of energy the bills are enormous our energy costs are in
18:11the
18:11millions per year it's enough energy for a small size town renewable energy can't meet all of the
18:18needs here and the facility relies on gas there's no energy price cap for businesses like this so when
18:25the gas price rose at the start of the war the impact was immediate the day ahead gas price which
18:32is a
18:32measure of how much gas costs and how much we'll pay on a daily basis that doubled overnight
18:38so that really did scare us john now faces a dilemma if the cost of energy rises further can the
18:49company
18:49still afford to grow tomatoes and cucumbers we've gone through our most expensive period and the crop is
18:56just starting to harvest now we've got to face a decision if energy costs continue to increase
19:03do we stop production at some point so it's a really hard decision for us to make
19:08and extra energy costs in the future might have to be factored into the price the company charges
19:16so the cost of tomatoes cucumbers going up is a possibility i think it's a real possibility that
19:23the cost of goods will go up because the costs of energy have gone up and energy underpins everything
19:28we do and those costs have to be absorbed because nobody wants to be making a loss so you can't
19:32run
19:32a business like that when it comes to food prices it can take time for us to see the effects
19:42in the
19:42supermarket one thing we can look at is when there have been previous shocks to global food prices
19:48it looks like it takes about a year for the full effect of that to pass through
19:52to the price you pay in the shops in the uk some of the latest estimates from the industry are
19:58that
19:58food price inflation could be as high as 10 by the end of this year for example so in recent
20:03years we
20:04have seen food price inflation of five or six percent people will have noticed that when they've
20:08gone to the shops and it could be even more than that by the end of this year although the
20:14uk gets
20:15very little gas from the middle east the price we pay for oil and gas depends on the global market
20:21those prices have risen and that's creating pressure on inflation here
20:28it's just hit 3.3 percent to keep inflation on or around its two percent target the bank of england
20:35can change interest rates i think the bank of england is going to be in a tough place
20:41their aim their target is to set interest rates to keep inflation at two percent inflation is going
20:48to be much higher than that over the rest of this year i think interest rates might well be going
20:52up
20:53in the second half of this year higher interest rates are good for savers hello yeah good but not
21:01so good if you're trying to get a mortgage there you come all right how long have you been here
21:08for
21:09so it'll be five years this year in june iona lives in mansfield with her teenage daughter her dog
21:16and her two cats when she bought this house she fixed her mortgage for five years when interest rates
21:24were at record lows that deal's ending and while she knew her payments were bright the best deal
21:31she's been offered will cost much more than she'd hoped how much are you currently paying for your
21:37mortgage and how much will you be paying so it was um a bit of a shock because the poor
21:42the payment went
21:43up from 720 pounds a month to a thousand and twenty a month so quite a big increase 300 pounds
21:50a month
21:50wow what was your reaction uh gobsmacked i i always expected that it would increase anyway because you
21:58know there's no when i did get the mortgage and initially it was a very low rate that was on
22:04but
22:04initially it was a massive shock i think because it happens so far away i probably didn't appreciate
22:12at the time how much you know what is happening thousands of miles away would have a direct impact
22:18on my life and my family's life iona now says the rise means she's looking at ways she can cut
22:28back in
22:28the future i guess i'd be changing my shopping habits this is making me rethink
22:34everything from top to bottom just to make sure because my priority is keeping a roof over my
22:39head and my daughter's head as well
22:44the average interest on a five-year fixed-rate mortgage is now 5.7 percent up from 4.95
22:52before the war began we've already seen mortgage rates rise pretty sharply and the availability of
23:00mortgage products has been cut back and markets are pricing in the prospect of the bank of england
23:05will be raising interest rates in the next few months that means the households who are looking
23:10to refix their mortgage face substantially higher costs than they would have expected previously
23:16earlier this year the uk's economy looked to be turning a corner but the conflict means that's now under
23:24threat growth here could be hit harder than in other major economies so there are two ways in which
23:30the uk is particularly vulnerable one is how we heat our homes we have a much higher gas usage than
23:35other countries and gas determines the cost of our electricity too for more of the time than than
23:40lots of other countries that makes us particularly exposed to that gas price shock and then the
23:45second is inflation hasn't got back to target and that means a shock to prices is even harder for the
23:51bank of england and the government to deal with the international monetary funds already cut its
23:58forecast for uk economic growth this year good morning from 1.3 percent to 0.8 percent
24:08i think they're correct and the forecasts are sobering every problem you're worried about gets worse
24:16worse if we have lower growth so you're worried about being taxed more you will be taxed more if
24:22you're worried about public services then governments will find it harder to afford these public services
24:27if you're worried about interest rates a low growth economy tends also to be a high inflation economy
24:35which tends to push up interest rates and therefore borrowing costs so if we lose the ability to grow yet
24:43again because of this external shock then you will have all our fragilities are magnified
24:54this is the third global economic shock in six years after covid and the ukraine war
25:02so far the good news is it looks like this crisis is somewhat smaller than some of the huge crises
25:08we've
25:08seen over the last few years the bad news is that it comes on top of those crises and that
25:13means both
25:13for families and for the government we're in a much less resilient place to deal with it
25:20we've got to be more prepared to deal with such shocks rather than just assuming that they don't happen
25:26that means the public finances have to be run with more buffer room and probably households and
25:31firms need to be more able to cope with adverse circumstances than previously
25:47right now the fragile ceasefire between the us and iran is holding but the tense standoff in the
25:54strait of hormuz continues iran still threatening ships in the strait and the us navy is blockading
26:02iranian ports and stopping and even boarding some ships photo vessel majestic x we intend to conduct the
26:09boarding of your vessel
26:14crucial supplies of oil and fertilizer still aren't flowing and even if the strait were to open tomorrow
26:22it would take time for them to get moving again unfortunately we have not seen the worse
26:29we're still going to see things get a little bit worse before they get better
26:34certain production sites are damaged you can't simply go back to where you've come from it takes
26:40time to re-establish normal
26:46that means back in the uk everyone from mortgage payers to tomato growers to shoppers may have many
26:53more months of uncertainty and of trying to cope with rising prices
26:59it is a worry i'm thinking constantly about how i can save money and and pinch pennies and you know
27:04maybe do things differently as well i think you have you just have to adapt i don't have any other
27:09choice i've got a kids i've got animals so you have to adapt
27:16we could do with a period of stability across the world because that's what's good for business
27:22it's vital that farmers can have long-term stability and resilience because this isn't
27:29sustainable for the long term it's constantly changing i think last week alone i had five
27:35different suppliers put the prices up it's particularly stressful because margins over
27:40the years have been coming down and down they're squeezed already but i have a warehouse full of doors
27:45and hopefully it's just a short-term storm that we can ride however long the storm lasts we're likely
27:53to be feeling the effects for many more months to come coming up on bbc one seconds away from a
28:04devastating fraud over the phone the scam interceptors on the case next
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