00:00But there are growing concerns that the Quad, the US, India, Japan and Australia, is losing momentum.
00:07Is this alliance actually at any risk of fading or just evolving under a completely different strategy?
00:15I think there's a very distinct possibility of the Quad not only fading but becoming extinct at some point.
00:21And this is pretty wild of me to say because in 2017, during the first Trump administration,
00:27the Quad quietly resumed after a nearly decade-long hiatus.
00:32They met at the foreign minister level.
00:34They eventually worked their way up to the summit level.
00:37It took place during the Biden administration.
00:39There were several different summits between the four members of the Quad.
00:43And then as Trump came back into office in January of last year, there have been no such meetings.
00:49There was supposed to be an India-hosted Quad in October or November of last year.
00:54It didn't happen.
00:55And now India is thinking about doing a foreign minister level meeting next month.
01:00And Secretary Rubio is apparently going to India in part for that reason.
01:05But it's a far cry from having a summit.
01:07In other words, a leadership level meeting of the Quad.
01:10And there is no end in sight to that trend changing.
01:18And Australia actually is supposed to serve as the rotating chair for the Quad summit this year.
01:24And so they're already delayed.
01:25What does this mean in the aggregate?
01:27It means that the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner within the Quad.
01:31The Quad used to talk about like-minded democratic countries working together,
01:35whether directly or indirectly, on China-related issues and lots of other issues.
01:40The U.S. doesn't really want to play that game anymore.
01:43And I think a lot of it is due to Trump not seeing real value in the organization and to
01:48him personally.
01:50He apparently did not want to go to India last year unless a free trade agreement was signed between the
01:55U.S. and India.
01:56And that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recognized that he should win the Nobel Peace Prize for helping to resolve
02:03the war,
02:04the four-day war between India and Pakistan last year.
02:06So there's some personal and policy gripes here that I think are continuing to carry over into this year and
02:13possibly beyond.
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