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How quickly is China closing the gap with the US in the chip industry? For the latest developments in the US-China AI chip race, our reporter Lily LaMattina spoke with Olivia Shen, director of the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. She explains how controls on AI chips could influence the Trump-Xi meeting next month, where both sides want to see trade wins.
Transcript
00:00Looking at the broader U.S.-China chip race, how quickly are Chinese companies closing the gap with the U.S.
00:06in terms of chip sophistication and performance?
00:09On the category of high-end frontier chips, the best estimates suggest that China's chip makers are about two to
00:16three generations behind, or at least five years behind.
00:18But if you then flip over to more of the mature older chips that are found in many electronics devices,
00:27the difference between China and the U.S. becomes quite marginal, maybe one to two generations at best.
00:35So it really depends on what kind of chips we're talking about and for what kind of use cases.
00:40Now, China would openly admit that it has this gap, but it's interesting to see that at the end of
00:47last year, in December 2025, China also introduced its own 50% rule.
00:52This is whereby they have asked Chinese companies to indigenise and for fabs to source about half of their equipment
01:00domestically and source the rest of their equipment internationally and on the global market.
01:04This is basically an admission that China is behind, that they're aware of the gap and that they will be
01:11using foreign equipment and product as needed in the short term.
01:15But longer term, they will not be deterred from moving towards full indigenous production end to end.
01:22The U.S. Commerce Secretary recently said that Nvidia's powerful H200 chips have not yet been sold to Chinese firms,
01:29even after the Trump administration lifted restrictions on them in January.
01:33Do you agree with the argument made by some officials that restricting sales helps slow Chinese competitors or could it
01:40instead accelerate China's push for chip self-reliance?
01:43I think you have to see all of this in a broader historical context of China's ambitions.
01:49China has had a concerted strategy of technology self-sufficiency for decades now.
01:55It is a strategy that far predates the Trump administration and far predates the latest export control action from the
02:02U.S.
02:03I think you're referring in particular to the former White House AI Czar David Sachs's comments, where he basically said
02:12that if we can get China addicted to U.S. chips, it will deter them from becoming more competitive and
02:18trying to make their own.
02:19Now, I certainly don't buy that argument if I look at the historical arc of what China is trying to
02:24achieve.
02:25China is not going to be deterred.
02:27Now, how will these conversations on AI chips influence the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting next month, where both sides want
02:34to see wins on trade?
02:35Now, the Match Act is just one of a raft of different export control measures being considered by committees in
02:42the U.S. Congress this month, just ahead of that Xi-Trump meeting.
02:47I do wonder whether this is intended in part to strengthen the U.S.'s negotiating position ahead of that conversation,
02:54or whether it might actually invite some more retaliatory action from China.
02:59We've seen over the past year that China is quite willing to weaponize its own strongholds on global supply chains,
03:08particularly its stranglehold on rare earths and magnets.
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