00:00Do you think there is the chance of a return to war before the ceasefire even begins?
00:07And what about this notion of optimism that the ambassador was talking about?
00:11Is there desire from Iran and the U.S. to permanently end this?
00:16I think we have to be optimistic for the benefit and welfare of the region.
00:21Is it realistic optimism, though?
00:24But we have to be sceptical.
00:26And, you know, as an analyst, you have to look at the pattern behaviour.
00:28And the United States and Israel have a pattern of behaviour of using high-level negotiations as cover for sneak
00:35attacks.
00:36So the idea of this talking point in Washington that Iran needs to show good faith, well, that's just kind
00:42of ridiculous, almost farcical,
00:44considering the United States and Israel have never shown good faith in any negotiations.
00:49Not only that, it doesn't look like they have the capability, the U.S., because the constant flip-flopping or
00:56moving the goalposts during negotiations.
00:59When they're in Islamabad, the U.S. tried to make a run with two U.S. destroyers through the Straits
01:03of Hormuz to create some kind of a provocation that would have upended those negotiations, which ended anyway after 21
01:11hours.
01:12But so it doesn't look like the U.S. is agreement capable.
01:15And if you look at the flashpoints in Iran, in Gaza, in Russia, Ukraine, the Trump administration has failed miserably.
01:25It's been a disaster in terms of negotiations on all fronts.
01:28So it doesn't look like they have the personnel, that they have the discipline to reach an interim accord, which
01:34would lead to a treaty, which would mean an end to hostilities.
01:38That's what everybody needs. That's what everybody wants.
01:41But it doesn't look like they're going to do that because there's no good exit options for Donald Trump.
01:46If he can't admit defeat, that's politically impossible for this administration.
01:52And in terms of leaving Israel to fend for itself in the region, that's not going to happen either because
01:58of pressure from the Israeli lobby in the U.S.
02:00So you have two options.
02:02One is escalation by the U.S. and Israel, which looks like the more likely scenario.
02:07The other is neither of the above, which means for the U.S. to sort of declare a PURIC victory
02:13and make a PR type of victory and then back off,
02:17but leave the door open for future attacks over the duration of this administration for the next two years.
02:24So in my view, it's going to be one of those two things.
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