00:00The mood on Wall Street, buy the dips. I've seen this across the board. I've seen it from a range
00:03of banks that every time you get a bit of weakness, you should buy it. Is that your
00:07approach to this moment? Not necessarily. I think you can use this opportunity to buy
00:13certain stocks. And you mentioned tech and financials. Those are areas where we think
00:16a lot of stocks have been sort of summarily rejected because of geopolitical risk and
00:21haven't necessarily come back. I think that for the index overall, I worry because there are some
00:29supply shocks in terms of equity coming up. We've got a lot of private capital sitting on the
00:35sidelines waiting to IPO, especially in technology, which is the biggest chunk of the S&P 500 of the
00:42U.S. equity market. I also think that the direction from here is really what's the next positive
00:50surprise versus negative surprise. And, you know, we're done with that whole geopolitical thing,
00:56it seems. But are we? You know, I think that's the question. And then on top of that, we're starting
01:01to see the potential impact of higher oil prices in consumer companies' forward guidance. So I think
01:11the risk is the impact of oil shocks takes a while to play through. So far, what we've seen is
01:18that
01:18consumers are spending more on gas and oil. But the actual hit to discretionary and, you know,
01:24kind of the rest of the stack could be three quarters out. That's what we found in our data.
01:30So I think this is a moment where you have to think about what are the positive versus negative
01:34surprises. And I guess I don't see as much likelihood of positive surprises in these big
01:39bellwether sectors like tech, like, you know, even industrials. I think industrials is now trading at a
01:45really lofty multiple. It's pretty crowded. Sure, tons of tailwinds, CapEx alive and well,
01:51everything is hunky dory. Defense, you know, you've got oil plays in the sector. But I do think that,
01:57you know, there are areas of the market that were basically bought to hedge against geopolitical risk,
02:06industrials being the classic case.
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