00:00very simple indications are that preparations clearly are underway here the streets are being
00:05beautified as they say some events have been called off here in islamabad and there has just
00:11been a lot of speculation over the last week whether a second round of talks might be possible
00:16certainly the authorities here and that includes the political authorities are very much preparing
00:21for a second round of talks the speculation of course is when exactly this might happen when
00:25delegations might arrive we have no confirmation whatsoever on that now as you can see appears to
00:32be a serious problem with the Strait of Hormuz being blocked again by Iran that gives you an indication
00:38that on the ground things can't be going toward a second round of negotiations but at the same time
00:44these are two sides that can get together and negotiate the two things can be possible there
00:50can be fresh hostilities for example there can be further tensions between the US and Iran for
00:56example in the Strait of Hormuz and at the same time the two negotiating teams are getting ready
01:01to travel here to the Pakistani capital of islamabad for a second round of talks it did look like
01:07everything was falling into place rather perfectly yesterday with the announcement from both the
01:13Iranian foreign minister and President Trump that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened again
01:17there was the 10-day ceasefire that was holding between Israel and Hezbollah the simple fact that
01:23the ceasefire right now between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other also
01:28is for the moment is holding and could very well be extended further still but then you have further
01:35doubts creep in but at the end of the day the reality here on the ground is certainly the government
01:40here the authorities are excited about potentially hosting a second round of talks the people here as well
01:45and preparations certainly are underway let's go to Jeff Mason Jeff are you excited about a potential
01:52round of talks and who do you think you heard you heard Philip talk about Pakistan is getting ready
01:55who from the White House team is getting ready are we expecting the same players from last time to go
02:01and at this point what are the odds of these talks actually happening well a lot to unpack there and
02:07number one what are the odds the odds seem high because that's the messaging that the White House has been
02:12giving it's the messaging that that President Trump has been giving that he is ready to end this war and
02:17he's ready for uh an extension of peace and and and not just an extension but something more
02:24permanent that said I think with the news this morning about the Strait of Hormuz and also
02:29the clips that you played with from what President Trump said on Air Force One last night
02:33it's important to underscore again the mixed messages that the President and the White House have been
02:39sending about this since day one of the war and that is exemplified in the fact that many of the
02:45things that the President said have been agreed or are done simply are not or have not at least been
02:51confirmed by Iran and they are they being Tehran in this case are showing that or manifesting that
02:57in in the Strait of Hormuz again after yesterday really goosing markets and exciting the rest of the
03:05world by saying that the Strait of Hormuz was open now it's not again we'll see if President Trump
03:10comments on that today in the Oval Office I think it casts in general to your question Christina a broad
03:17cloud of doubt over when and whether these talks will happen again and whether they're nearly as far
03:23along in moving towards peace as the President has suggested as we have been from the very beginning
03:29of this conflict we've been looking at two fronts of course the front in Iran and the front in Lebanon
03:33as well and the President remarked on Lebanon yesterday at this Turning Point conference in
03:38Arizona he did this swing through the American West and gave a couple of speeches let's take a
03:41listen to what he had to say about the role that Lebanon has played in this ceasefire negotiation
03:46our deal with Iran is not in any way tied to Lebanon but we will make Lebanon great again I
03:53mean it's
03:53about time we did so we've we've sort of the world has forgotten them and they're good people
03:59who have lived like hell for a long period of time and hopefully the situation with Hezbollah will
04:05get straightened out quickly Dan Williams I won't ask you what it means to make Lebanon great again but
04:11I'm curious if you could just talk a bit about the role that Lebanon played here in getting us to
04:15the
04:15position we were in yesterday when we had the Iranian foreign minister announcing the ceasefire deal
04:19on X yesterday morning it depends who you believe you heard the US president say just there that they
04:25these were unrelated these deals it's no secret however that the Iranians very much wanted to see
04:31an end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah on Lebanon keep in mind that Hezbollah is Iran's biggest
04:38guerrilla ally biggest proxy presumably the Iranians want to see Hezbollah preserved almost as much as
04:45they want to see their own regime preserved in Iran so that was agreed it was agreed apparently with
04:51some high-handedness by the US president because there was a credible report here that on the night
04:56when it was agreed as the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was assembling a telephone vote by his
05:02security cabinet ministers the news reported that Trump had already announced that the ceasefire was
05:07in place Israel had agreed and it would begin at midnight and there was some jostling and joking
05:12I imagine mordant jokes among those ministers as to whether there was any point on them voting if it
05:16already had been announced widely publicly internationally add to that also that Trump
05:22in that flurry of posts on truth social just a couple days ago spoke very high-handedly about
05:28having effectively ordered Israel to ceasefire in Lebanon enough is enough he said that optically
05:33isn't great for Israel's assertion of sovereignty in this war of being an equal partner it may also
05:39cost Netanyahu on the ballot box in a few months when Israel holds an election given that many residents
05:43of northern Israel that have spent the last month in shelters seeing their economy their social fabric
05:48ruined by Hezbollah rockets feel that they were shortchanged by the ceasefire even though it's
05:53only a 10-day ceasefire feel essentially that Hezbollah has been left standing and threatening them
05:58in the future. Phil I want to go back to you now I'm going to read there's something crossing the
06:03Associated Press right now with Dateline out of Cairo saying the British military is saying just a little
06:13Iran said it had reimposed restrictions as we report this morning in the area the UK is saying
06:19the tanker and crew are reported safe they have not identified the vessel or its destination I want
06:25to ask you because the last time we talked to you or one of the many times to talk to
06:28you you were at
06:28the strait I know you've done a lot of reporting around there were any of those 20,000 sailors or
06:34merchant marines able to get out in this intervening time where it was unclear if the strait was
06:38operational and even though we had that brief period of time where Iran said traffic was open did
06:45anyone take the risk it didn't seem like we watch these maps all the time that really anybody was
06:49willing to gamble with their personnel or their equipment and is that going to be the status quo for the
06:54foreseeable future. Yeah really strange situation this one this short moments of freedom if you will
07:03freedom of navigation in the strait of Hormuz that some tankers did decide to at least try out satellite
07:09imagery does show and the tracking data shows that quite a lot of those ships that includes tankers of
07:15course try to get out of the Persian Gulf where they have been stuck for a very long time some
07:20six
07:20seven weeks or more but then turned around again maybe the moment where they noticed that the big
07:26announcement of an end of the strait of Hormuz blockade both by Iran and the United States wasn't really
07:32what it sounded like both from the president and from the Iranian foreign minister. We have no
07:38confirmation of any ships managing to make it through but as you mentioned there that is a first
07:44incident in the strait of Hormuz with actual gunships from the Iranian revolutionary guards firing at a
07:50tanker. It's the first time we hear of that in a long time. I think it's going to be at
07:54least three or
07:55four weeks because there had been these threats and indeed attacks at the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on
08:01Iran. Plenty of attacks on I believe it was just under a dozen of ships that were attacked
08:06by Iranian gunships and other Iranian forces and those threats remained throughout this war and it
08:16was those threats that led to tankers and of course the shipping companies and the insurance companies
08:20whose rates were skyrocketing who decided that it was just not going to be safe enough to attempt a
08:26passage through the strait of Hormuz. Now we are back to exactly that to an actual attack by the IRGC
08:32on a tanker according to the U.K. military. Now that is a serious escalation and a return to the
08:39situation
08:39we were in about five weeks ago. Just one attack like this one is going to put the fear in
08:45a lot of
08:46shipping companies transport companies in the sailors themselves to not attempt another passage through
08:51the strait of Hormuz. Jeff Mason I'll turn to you lastly and I'm curious sort of what the White House
08:55has been saying about the back and forth that's been happening not directly between Iranian officials
08:59and President Trump. The President has been indicating that Iran is prepared to give a host
09:04of concessions including moving that nuclear dust as it was put during that gaggle on Air Force One
09:09letting the U.S. come in and with Iran's cooperation presumably move it out. No real confirmation of that
09:14from the Iranian side. How do they explain that level of disconnect and do you see that as
09:18potentially just sort of laying the parameters for perhaps the second round of negotiations?
09:23Well there isn't an explanation for that disconnect and I think that's largely the problem. Markets are
09:29listening to what President Trump says when he's giving a positive spin or putting a positive spin
09:35on the state of play and that's pleasing everyone because it's clear that President Trump has moved in
09:41the direction of wanting to end this war and I wrote a story about that yesterday. He's got domestic
09:46issues that he'd like to focus on. That's manifested in the trip that he made this week talking more
09:51about the economy, talking about politics, talking a little bit less about Iran. But the reality is
09:57that the deal that he's talking about has not been hammered out and a lot of the details that he's
10:03wanting to trumpet including about nuclear dust clearly have not been agreed to by Iran. So that is a
10:10a large weakness hanging over at least a large question mark hanging over the prospect of peace
10:17that the White House has not offered an explanation for.
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