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The latest episode of India Today Global covers the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a ten-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
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00:07hello and welcome to statecraft with me Gita Mohan can a superpower project strength while
00:13its own soldiers struggle for basic supplies at sea and when war begins to choke food fuel
00:18and flights is the real battlefield now economic survival tonight two stories that collide one
00:25unfolds on the decks of the USS Tripoli and USS Abraham Lincoln where American sailors ration meals
00:32a supply chain snap under the pressure of a widening West Asia conflict the other far more
00:39direct in Lahore Amir Hamza a founding figure of Lashkar-e-Toyeba is shot in a precise motorcycle
00:45attack moments after a TV appearance he survives but critically injured a clear sign of fractures
00:52within the network itself one crisis spreads across the world the other erupts from within
00:58all that and more but first up the headlines US president Donald Trump in a post on truth social
01:05said the Strait of Hormuz is completely open and is ready for business though the naval blockade
01:10will remain in full force Iranian foreign minister Sayid Abbas Araqchi in a post on X said following the
01:16ceasefire in Lebanon the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz has been
01:22declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire oil prices dropped sharply and stock
01:27futures surged after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will be completely open for commercial transit during
01:33the ceasefire a 10-day truce between Lebanon and Israel continues to hold despite the Lebanese army
01:40accusing Israel of violations meanwhile Israel said its forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon
01:47we begin the show with some big news that has come in that of the opening of the Strait of
01:54Hormuz foreign
01:55minister of Iran Sayid Abbas Araqchi has announced in his post on X that the Strait of Hormuz till the
02:03time
02:03the ceasefire stays is going to now be open which is a huge relief but also President Donald Trump has
02:10put in
02:11his social media post that he's acknowledged the fact that Iran has just announced reopening of the
02:18Strait of Hormuz to discuss what this means even if it's a brief reopening what it would mean for the
02:25world I'm being joined by my colleague Pranav Bhadhyay thank you so much for joining me let's just begin
02:30with the fact that there is that the Strait of Hormuz reopening is a huge relief will that mean that
02:37the
02:37supply chains reopen or they'll still be disruption because we are looking at a huge backlog now two
02:43parts to this answer Gita certainly it's a big relief for the world and especially for India the very
02:49indication Iran has has shown with this social media post by foreign minister Saria Dabbas Araqchi
02:55that Iran has a meaning it has intention to open state of Hormuz and restore this status quo ante before
03:0228th of
03:03February 2026 when Israeli and United States launched this operation but the reality remains
03:10that before 28th of February 2026 28th of February 2026 around 140 ships used to pass through the state
03:17of Hormuz currently over 200 ships are still stranded in Gulf of Persia and this breather this this small
03:24like you know window of opening up of restoring the the the state of Hormuz is only till that deadline
03:31of
03:31the ceasefire Iran has shown the intention that they have intention to open it up now it is basically
03:38a gesture to show United States that if you extend the ceasefire then the state of Hormuz remains open
03:45for a longer period okay is this intent is this intent knowing how the Iranians have negotiated with
03:51America and what Trump says has been some of the most difficult negotiations is this is this what we are
03:58calling as negotiation or is this uh is this artistic tactic where Iran has shown that they are boss you
04:07can call it either way but look they have every reason to be hard negotiator in this thing because
04:13very like it's it's about the government it's about Iran it's about regime everything is at stake so they
04:20have reasons to be very hard negotiator on the table and they will be giving up their nuclear program if
04:27there is a deal because this is what president Donald Trump is asking and in fact just a while ago
04:33exeos has posted that there could be a quid pro quo and in fact US could be giving some certain
04:40they
04:41have quoted an amount of around 20 billion dollar in lieu of you know Iran giving up their nuclear program
04:46or their right to enrichment this is this just a repeat of JCPOA I would say one that and also
04:52war reparations in many ways there is a bill that Iran is putting out and somebody will have to foot
05:00that bill Pranay will be watching this and Pranay has just come back from the war zone so we'll be
05:05tracking this very very closely but for now thank you so much for joining us thank you as US Iran
05:11ceasefire
05:11draws closer to April 22nd deadline Pakistan has started preparing to host the second round of
05:18high-stakes talks between the US and Iran this comes as Pakistan Field Marshal Asa Munir visited
05:25Tehran earlier this week Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif reached Turkey after discussions with the
05:31Saudi and Qatari leaders as of now nothing has been officially said about the outcome of talks and a date
05:37too has not been fixed for the second round of talks President Trump may consider visiting Pakistan if
05:43a peace deal between the US and Iran is finalized in Islamabad after President Trump announced a 10
05:51day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon which took effect at midnight on the 16th of April 2026 the
05:58Lebanese army stated that Israeli forces committed ceasefire violations including intermittent shelling of
06:05several southern Lebanese villages shortly after the truce began United Nations Secretary General
06:10Antonio Guterres welcomed the ceasefire and call for it to be fully respected by all parties the terms
06:17of the truce prohibit offensive military actions in Lebanon but allow for self-defense against imminent
06:23or ongoing attacks both Israel and Hezbollah have maintained their right to respond if the ceasefire is
06:30breached the Lebanese army reported several ceasefire violations and continued to advise caution for
06:36residents in affected areas take a look at this this looks like prison food but it isn't this is the
06:44food
06:44eaten by US soldiers on USS Tripoli and USS Abraham Lincoln two of America's mightiest warships a dry meat
06:52patty a great slab of processed meat a sad handful of boiled carrots this is food for people deployed in
06:59a war zone
07:00and America can't feed them properly if the strongest military on the planet is rationing food at sea
07:06what exactly do you think is about to happen to the rest of us so why are US soldiers eating
07:14canned meals on
07:15a warship simple the war in the West Asia region broke the supply chain and nobody fixed it fast enough
07:22mail services to 27 military zip codes suspended families packed care packages snacks basics hygiene
07:30products and those packages just sat nowhere to go the US Postal Service said airspace closures and
07:38logistical chaos made delivery impossible meanwhile on the USS Tripoli sailors ate when they could divided portions
07:48among themselves and sent messages home that read like survival dispatches one sailor wrote that
07:55supplies would get really low and morale would hit an all-time low a marine's father saw a photo of
08:02his
08:02daughter's lunch tray two-thirds empty one small scoop of meat one tortilla his reaction said it all and I
08:10quote we
08:11have the strongest military in the world you shouldn't be running out of food he's right and it gets worse
08:17from here
08:19will this food shortage spread to Europe and the UK short answer not the same way but yes and here's
08:26exactly how the war drags it there start with the war the US and Israel hit Iran Iran hits back
08:33where it
08:34hurts the Strait of Hormuz which now is open but only for the ceasefire that narrow strip carries a huge
08:42chunk
08:42of the world's oil and gas Iran squeezes it and suddenly global supply chains don't slow down they choke now
08:51connect
08:51the dots no smooth oil and gas flow means energy prices jump and energy is not just for cars it
08:59runs
08:59fertilizer plants it produces carbon dioxide and co2 quietly holds the entire food system together yes co2 it helps
09:10slaughter animals it preserves packaged food it keeps supermarket shelves stocked longer it even keeps
09:17your soda fizzy so when the war disrupts gas supply fertilizer production drops and when fertilizer production
09:25drops co2 supply drops too now picture the chain reaction less co2 means meat processing slows shelf life shrinks food
09:36waste rises supermarkets struggle to maintain variety at the same time fertilizer gets expensive farmers hesitate
09:44planting decisions change future crops shrink before they even grow why is there a jet fuel shortage and why
09:51should you care because Europe gets 75% of its jet fuel from West Asia the Strait of Hormuz the
09:59bottleneck
10:00through which one-fifth of the world's oil and gas flows effectively shut down when Iran closed it in response
10:07to US and Israeli strikes the head of the International Energy Agency said it plainly Europe has maybe six weeks
10:15of jet fuel left six weeks that's not a distant problem that's your summer holiday the benchmark European jet fuel
10:23price doubled from 831 dollars per ton before the war to an all-time high of 1838 dollars a ton
10:35KLM already cancelled 160 flights Lufthansa shut down an entire regional airline easy jet absorbed 25
10:45million pounds in extra fuel costs in a single month smaller airports get hit first then bigger ones feel the
10:51squeeze flight cancellations from City A to City B not because of bad weather but because there is no
10:57fuel that's where this goes will the oil shortage get worse yes even the optimists say so the blockade
11:06stranded 2000 vessels it might open now but there's no surety of how long that will last now rerouting
11:13ships around Africa adds weeks to delivery times and spikes shipping costs Iran's oil exports collapse
11:21Qatar's LNG facility took a hit that experts say takes three to five years to repair global oil supply took
11:30its biggest shock in history the IEA's words not ours look at Pakistan for example massive outages some
11:39stretching up to 15 hours hit cities like Lahore and Karachi while rural areas practically sit in the dark
11:45why simple the war disrupts LNG supplies from the Gulf power plants choke and suddenly a 6 000 megawatt
11:53system barely produces 500 megawatts demand jumps supply crashes and the grid collapses under pressure
12:03and here's the brutal part even if a ceasefire holds today experts say full recovery takes about 12 to 18
12:11months minimum prices stay elevated tanker backlogs clear slowly damaged infrastructure rebuilds on its
12:19own schedule the world doesn't just snap back the war needs to stop every week this drags on the damaged
12:27compounds food fuel fertilizer all tangled up in one choke point the world ran a stress test it didn't
12:36volunteer for and it failed let us go back to the soldiers on lincoln and tripoli did you know that
12:44before these soldiers were deployed they were given a lavish spread of lobster and steak and now they're
12:50surviving on rations the soldiers on those warships didn't start this war they just ended up eating the
12:56consequences of it the rest of the world is next in line india slipped to sixth place in global gdp
13:03rankings
13:04according to the imf the drop is driven by a weaker rupee and technical revisions not a slowdown india
13:10still grows around 6.5 percent and remains one of the fastest growing major economies the rank has changed
13:17the trajectory hasn't but what matters more rankings on paper or the speed of real growth underneath find out
13:25in this report india's position in the global economic rankings has taken a surprising turn
13:35according to the latest data from the international monetary fund india has slipped to become the world's
13:42sixth largest economy in nominal gdp terms just a year ago the narrative was very different india had
13:49surged ahead overtaking the united kingdom in japan briefly positioning itself as the world's fourth
13:56largest economy that milestone was seen as a defining movement a symbol of india's rapid economic rise on
14:03the global stage but now the latest world economic outlook paints a revised picture india stands behind
14:10the united states china germany japan and the united kingdom with its economy valued at just over 4 trillion
14:18dollars so what changed the answer lies not in economic decline but in how global rankings are
14:26calculated first the weakening of the indian rupee has played a critical role global gdp comparisons are
14:33made in u.s dollar terms when the rupee depreciates as it has over the past year moving into the
14:4090 plus
14:41range against the dollar the converted value of india's gdp appears smaller even if actual economic
14:48activity remains strong second india updated its gdp base here a technical but important revision
14:56while this improves the accuracy of economic measurement it can also temporarily reduce the
15:02nominal size of the economy on paper impacting rankings third external pressures have intensified
15:09rising crude oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions in west asia have increased india's import bill
15:16since india imports nearly 90 percent of its oil higher prices increase dollar outflows putting
15:23additional pressure on the rupee at the same time global uncertainty has led to volatile foreign investment
15:30flows further weakening the currency add to this a persistent trade deficit driven by imports of oil
15:37electronics and gold and the pressure on india's external position becomes clearer but here is the crucial
15:44point the fundamentals of india's economy remains strong the imf projects india to grow at around 6.5 percent
15:52in 2026 making it the fastest growing major economy in the world government estimates suggest growth could
16:00even touch 7.6 percent while institutions like the world bank and asian development bank have also upgraded
16:08their forecast in contrast advanced economies like the united kingdom are expected to grow at just 0.8 percent
16:16india's growth continues to be driven by strong domestic demand rising consumption infrastructure
16:22investment and a resilient services sector this makes it less dependent on global trade cycles compared to
16:30export driven economies globally economic growth is slowing projected at around 3.1 percent to 3.2 percent in
16:38the coming years well below the historical average yet india is emerging as a key driver of global growth
16:46so what does this drop really mean it highlights the simple but often overlooked reality global rankings are
16:53influenced as much by currency movements as by actual growth with economies like india japan and the uk
17:00clustered in the four to five trillion dollar range even small shifts in exchange rates can change positions
17:08looking ahead forecasts suggest india could regain the fourth position by 2027 and potentially rise to third
17:16place by the early 2030s in essence india hasn't slowed down it's still growing faster than most major economies
17:24but in the world of dollar denominated rankings perception can shift quickly with hash mishra bearer report india
17:33today global a senior lashkari toyoba figure walks out of a television studio in lahore minutes later gunfire erupts
17:42in a public street two motorcycle born attackers strike with precision and vanish just as quickly as
17:49they appear this is not a scene from a film but it looks like one a dhurandar style assassination script
17:55replayed in real life and the target was amir hamza a founding figure of lashkari toyoba
18:03the attack took place outside a news channel office in lahore shortly after hamza appeared on air alongside
18:09a religious figure reports say he had no warning two armed men on a motorcycle pulled up beside his vehicle
18:16and opened fire at close range the assault was sudden targeted and executed in seconds hamza survived but
18:25was critically injured the attackers escaped into lahore's crowded streets the method has drawn comparisons to
18:32cinematic depictions of motorcycle assassinations in south asia but the reality in this case is tied to
18:40one of the most notorious terror networks in the region amir hamza is not a minor figure he is one
18:47of the
18:47founding nodes of lashkari toyoba also known as let a man who has been part of its architecture since its
18:54earlier formation and someone long associated with its ideological and operational expansion hamza's
19:01trajectory within lashkari toyoba goes back to the 1980s according to reports he was recruited in his
19:08youth by senior operatives and brought into the early ideological ecosystem that later evolved into the group
19:17he was involved in publications recruitment messaging and ideological framing editing magazines writing
19:22propaganda and shaping narratives that helped expand the organization's reach over time he became more
19:29than a propagandist he was linked to fundraising networks external coordination and internal organizational
19:36structures that supported lashkar's growth across multiple fronts he has also been designated as a terrorist
19:44by international agencies including the united states of america but hamza is also tied to one of
19:50lashkar's most controversial and operationally significant episodes the 2005 attack on the indian institute
19:58of science in bengaluru an attack that the group itself later viewed as a failure the iisc bengaluru incident
20:07was designed as a high-impact strike on an academic institution in india's technology hub reports suggest the
20:15attackers intended mass casualties but the operation did not unfold as planned one professor was killed several
20:22others were injured but logistical delays coordination failures and operational setbacks meant the attack
20:29fell short of what its planners had intended even within militant circles it was reportedly discussed as a
20:36of the flawed operation a case study in what went wrong and how execution failures can derail planned high-impact
20:44terror strikes armor hamza has been linked in multiple accounts to operational roles connected to that period of lashkar
20:52activity especially against india according to multiple reports the attack may not be an isolated external
21:00strike instead it may reflect deeper instability within let's evolving structure the organization has faced
21:08sustained pressure over the years arrests international sanctions leadership constraints and disruption of key
21:16operational hubs following counter-terrorism actions at the same time internal rivalries have reportedly
21:23intensified competing factions shifting leadership roles and disagreements over direction strategy and
21:30control of resources some assessments suggest that groups like lashkar are not only under external
21:36pressure but also undergoing internal fragmentation and this is where the hamza attack becomes more than an
21:45isolated incident it becomes a signal of instability inside networks that were once seen as tightly controlled
21:52lashkar-i-taiba has historically survived by decentralizing operations while maintaining ideological cohesion
21:59cohesion but reports now suggest that cohesion itself is under strain emerging leaders competing
22:06loyalties and operational silos that do not always align in such environments violence does not only move
22:14outward it can turn inward against rivals against former allies or against symbolic figures of older
22:22organizational eras amir hamza represents that older generation the founding architecture the ideological core
22:29and the historical memory of the organization so what does the lahore attack really represent
22:37a targeted strike on a founding figure a case of internal score settling or a warning that militant
22:44ecosystems are entering a more volatile phase at this stage there are no definitive answers what is clear
22:50is this a senior founding member of lashkar-i-taiba has been critically wounded in a brazen street
22:57attack in pakistan's second largest city hamza may have survived the attack but the structure he helped build is
23:05now facing a different kind of pressure not only from outside forces but from within and in that internal churn
23:12security analysts warn the most dangerous phase may not be declined but transformation because fractured
23:19networks do not always weaken sometimes they multiply that's all in this edition of statecraft but before we
23:27let you go here's a moment that captures both relief and reality celebrations broke out across lebanon
23:34after a 10-day truce with israel came into effect in beirut's southern suburbs gunfire rang out in celebration
23:40car horns blared and families began returning home after days of displacement hope is back but so is
23:47uncertainty take a look goodbye and take care
24:09so
24:12uh
24:14uh
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