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00:00let's throw this out right away dub nation let's get engaged because it's kind of the question of
00:04the day okay every game vote in our engaging dub nation poll on 95.7 the game's twitter page brought
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00:13engagement rings and they're unmatched free lifetime warranty shanko.com today warrior fans
00:19are you rooting for the warriors to win tonight yes or no it sounds like a silly question it should
00:24be but it's not more complex and more nuanced than that when you think about the ramifications
00:29if you lose then you're in the lottery and you could get the number one pick you could get the
00:34two the three or the four you're likely to stay at 11 you might dip to 12 but there is
00:38at least a chance
00:39and so if you want to be a logical robotic person you have a 9.4 percent chance of being
00:45in the top
00:46four and you have less than that to actually win the nba championship so if you're gonna not do the
00:53thing if you don't see value in going to okc and and getting rolled then yeah i could see how
00:59you
00:59might want them to lose tonight i i mean if you're playing percentages though it's kind of funny um
01:05when when people look at this because to me this is how i look at it um let's look at
01:10the likely
01:12scenarios based on the two options that don't just play out tonight but friday also and and for another
01:18day i'll save it for tomorrow but the warriors can beat phoenix phoenix is injured they suck i i like
01:23i don't i really don't think much of them um if the warriors were to win tonight i actually would
01:29really really like their chances on friday but that again that's for a completely i think whoever wins
01:34tonight wins on friday you know you're probably right i i to me uh these teams are better than what
01:41phoenix is offering up right now they just don't look right i know they had that game last night
01:45coughed it up late but here's what i'm getting out the likelihood is if you lose tonight or friday
01:52you pick 11th or 12th 90 chance the likelihood is is if you were to win these two games you
01:58then get
01:58bounced by the okc thunder and pick like 15th probably a 97 chance okay so those are your two
02:05scenarios so are you willing to fall three or four spots in the draft for a couple of weeks of
02:11fun
02:12i mean that like again the answer is yes there are other scenarios out there but that's the
02:17percentage play of what we're talking about right and the only other side of it is like the the miracle
02:23side like to get a top four pick nine percent to get the number one pick is about two percent
02:30so
02:30you have a two percent chance of in the lottery getting the number one pick if you win these two
02:36playing games do you have a two percent chance of winning the nba championship probably not it's probably
02:41lower than that so if you want to play the other side of it yes the meat is 90 chance
02:47you'll be 11
02:47or 12 if you're in the lottery if you make it out of the play and you're 15 that's a
02:51guaranteed fine
02:52but the miracle side you have a better chance in the lottery of pulling off a miracle than you do
02:59being a playoff team well and here's the other thought i had when i woke up today thank god for
03:03the
03:03playing tournament oh yeah no i'm being real yeah i know you are thank god for the playing tournament
03:08and steve kerr is right he said it to us yesterday you don't love the playing tournament when you're
03:14the seven seed right but you'll love it when you're the 10 and the warriors are the 10 and the
03:19entire
03:19conversation that we're all having today even for those warrior fans who might be in the closet sort
03:26of rooting for them to lose tonight even for those warrior fans um if you're locked in on today at
03:32all
03:33then in some way shape or form you're in on this story and this story exists because of the play
03:40in
03:40tournament and people will say that oh it was actually an anti-tanking measure mark spears told
03:46us it was to get zion williamson right in the bubble uh you know like there are all kinds of
03:52fairy
03:52tales about what this is about and i don't even know if this was their thought process when they did
03:56it
03:57but here's why today i'm thankful for it um when you have a team and this is my opinion when
04:04you have
04:04a team that is better than what its actual record ended up being because so much adversity came at
04:13them and whether or not it was predictable or not is not really my point but two injuries to their
04:20two
04:20best players really really took a toll and so you end up with 37 wins when i believe that if
04:28things
04:28had gone well you're a better team than that well what that provides you when you face that adversity
04:33is at least still a path because now they arrive here still not fully healthy still not all that great
04:42but they're a better team than they were three four or five weeks ago in my opinion and now because
04:48of this play in tournament there's a path and i'm like i think that's a good thing it's a good
04:54thing
04:54because my team is the 10 seed but if you take the team that i love out of it i
05:00don't think that it's a
05:01very worthwhile or deserved thing injuries and adversity that's a part of pro sports and you play
05:0782 games and if you're a top eight team then you go to the playoffs and if you're not then
05:12you go into
05:13the lottery but they wanted to change it they wanted to create more i guess intensity and
05:18more of that one and done college basketball feel and for at least one day last night that was
05:24great those were two very fun did you like those games yeah i like the game okay so so what's
05:29the
05:29problem the problem is neither of those teams is good enough to in my opinion go on and advance and
05:36really make any quote noise in the playoffs and it's just a little bit of an enabling mechanism that i
05:43think is largely unnecessary it's fascinating to me it really is because um having the ability to
05:50advance is is never how we view the playoffs in sports that's that we don't do that nobody thought
05:57the panthers could advance but everyone was okay that they were there um the example i've used with
06:02you before as i try to figure this out with the way you feel about this is your your most
06:08beloved
06:08sporting event of the year this absolutely overloaded in fact 95 percent of the teams in
06:16the ncaa tournament have no chance to win the whole thing so so but so what i mean more and
06:22more of those
06:23teams don't even have a chance to win a game right and the one bid conferences this year they only
06:29won
06:29two games one of them was high point and the other one i might have been mcneese or i think
06:35mcneese
06:35maybe lost but the greater point is that even that cinderella story has largely been taken out of
06:41the ncaa tournament and in the nba it's just really kind of a mirage the 10 seed has never
06:47made it out of the play-in and won a playoff game so the warriors are trying to be the
06:52first team to
06:53ever do that and the 10 seeds only made it out one out of 10 times so it's a little
06:58bit of a mirage
06:59and if you're the 10 usually you are the best of the worst and that's kind of what the warriors
07:05are
07:05this year i mean we saw a 9 10 game last night it went to overtime it had drama it
07:11may result in a
07:12suspension for one of the team's best players uh it was a one point game like i don't know sometimes
07:18i just i hear kind of how people feel about things that are new or new earth we didn't grow
07:26up with them
07:26and so therefore we kind of reject them and and and my take is like why does it make you
07:33upset
07:33like who's this hurting how about if i put it that way because prior to the we believe warriors
07:39uh nobody cared about the eight seed but now i hear a lot of people go oh only the top
07:45eight well
07:45it's like why eight why were you okay with eight it didn't used to be eight but then someone when
07:50you
07:50were born told you it was eight so now you want it to be eight it's not allowed to be
07:54nine or ten like
07:55i mean it's not that you have to care and it's not going to drive me away from the sport
08:01but it
08:01becomes a thing where it starts to water down the regular season and if it was put in to be
08:07an
08:07anti-tanking measure which i don't know if it is or not no one has ever really said it that
08:12way mark
08:13spears you mentioned it thought that it was to get zion into the into the postseason it was during
08:17the bubble i think it was kind of a bubble curiosity and they liked it and so they stuck with
08:22it but
08:22ultimately it's not going to ruin my enjoyment of the nba and for tonight the warriors are the 10th
08:28seed and i'm happy that they still have a chance but in a vacuum i think it definitely waters down
08:33the overall product in the regular season i'm super thankful for it today i wonder where you all are
08:40on the play in tournament uh especially with what has developed for the warriors this year and although
08:46by the way i don't know this but here's a guess that when this thing was uh becoming a part
08:52of
08:52the discussion in in the nba league offices um baseball was kind of coming out of a situation
08:59where they had the wild card and the giants benefited from this multiple times by the way a one game
09:06playoff and it no different than march madness for example it creates urgency it is often one of the
09:15the only times that i can sit down as a fan and watch two teams that i don't care about
09:21yeah but
09:22i'll watch because i know something very very specific is on the line in this game last night
09:30was not an elimination game for portland and the suns but uh a birth in the playoffs and avoiding the
09:36thunder and all of those things were on the line and those two teams played hard and it was chippy
09:40at the end i thought it was incredibly watchable so if you're getting dramatic watchable sports that
09:47are bringing more fan bases to the party i'm just having a hard time finding the problem with it i
09:53mean
09:53you don't have to have a problem with it but you can have the same level of urgency in the
09:58regular
09:58season if you had fewer playoff teams having a shot to actually make the playoffs and you saw it in
10:04the east this year where coming down the stretch you had four teams fighting for slots i think five six
10:10seven and eight it was really it was crowded over there in the east so those games actually mattered
10:15and we saw it in hockey and hockey never seems to have a problem with you know load management or
10:21tanking because you're going to go out there and the sharks were trying like heck all the way through
10:25game 80 to stay in that playoff race and they fell short and for some reason the nba has to
10:30come up
10:31with contrived ways to get these guys to actually care and compete well that could to me that's a
10:36completely different issue i mean both both uh east and west this year there was a huge jump
10:42from the 10 seed down to the tankers in the eastern conference it was 11 games but but in the
10:48east there
10:49was a competition between what is it five and ten yeah absolutely five to ten was three games the six
10:55the five seed to the 10 seed exactly so that i mean to me that's great and as far as
11:00the other part
11:01though the competing to get to 10 i'm not going to get mad at the nba for the fact that
11:0710 basketball
11:08teams in the nba this year decided that they had no interest in playing basketball and lost on purpose
11:14and and all of that um that's a completely different subject that we've talked a lot about obviously and
11:20we saw dallas was it uh last year where they intentionally bowed out of being in the play-in that
11:26way they could get in the lottery and then they won the lottery so there are two different things
11:29one is the tanking has to get fixed via the lottery the other one is you know teams who are
11:35nine or ten the likelihood of you making it out and then winning a series is very low those are
11:40actually we were just blended years with dallas it was two years ago that they kind of bowed out on
11:45purpose last year they won play in game number one and then they lost play in game number two
11:50and ended up with the number one pick so yeah that's always a possibility
11:55possibility
11:55you
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