00:00The United States is trying to get the Strait of Hormuz unblocked by blocking it.
00:04If you can't immediately follow the logic there, don't worry, you're in good company.
00:08The case in favor of a U.S. blockade is that it would end a truly bizarre anomaly of the
00:13war with Iran to date.
00:14That is, that the U.S. has allowed Iran to go on shipping its oil and other goods through the
00:19Strait of Hormuz,
00:20even as Tehran has prevented other Gulf states from doing the same.
00:24On top of that, Iran has been able to charge much higher prices for its oil than it could before
00:29the war.
00:30Why?
00:31Well, partly because crude prices have risen for all producers,
00:34but also because Donald Trump had eased the sanctions that previously had forced Iran to sell its oil at a
00:40discount.
00:41He wasn't being nice.
00:42He was trying to keep a lid on those crude prices by getting more product onto the market.
00:46So by stopping Iranian trade through Hormuz too, the U.S. blockade should end that anomaly.
00:51And given Iran's heavy dependence on its oil and gas export revenues,
00:55the hope is that bringing those to zero will force it to accept more U.S. demands.
01:00Another goal of the blockade could be to get China, which buys most of Iran's oil, to muscle Tehran into
01:06acceptance.
01:06I'm skeptical.
01:07One reason is that blockades typically take time to impact behavior if they do at all,
01:13and Trump doesn't have much time.
01:15From everything we know about the Islamic Republic's leaders,
01:17it's pretty clear that they have a much higher threshold for enduring pain
01:22and inflicting it on their citizens than do Americans or the rest of the developed world.
01:27So the men in Tehran seem unlikely to blink first.
01:30Instead, they're threatening to retaliate against the ports of other Gulf states.
01:34And that probably means a U.S. climb down and more talks,
01:37or a return to military escalation.
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