00:01Turning to the blockade. Look, I think actually this is a positive announcement. Now, your
00:07viewers are going to be probably surprised by that. So let me explain why. Clearly the
00:12negotiations that took 21 hours were not successful. And if we think back to the Jikpoa arrangements,
00:18the last time there was a deal on nuclear between the US and Iran, that took 20 months
00:22to negotiate. The US has assessed that they need to have greater economic leverage over
00:27Iran, I would assume, and stop Iran being resupplied with missiles and weapons systems. And there
00:32is some rumours in US media that China is looking to resupply Iran with certain shoulder-launched
00:38anti-air capabilities. So a blockade is a way to do that. Now, many reports today have said
00:44it's a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That's not correct. That is what President Trump said.
00:48However, the Central Command, who is in charge of this campaign, have come out and announced
00:51a formal blockade in a notice to mariners, which says they are blockading vessels going
00:56to and from Iranian ports, so not the Strait of Hormuz. And this allows them to exert that
01:02economic pressure to get some leverage over Iran, but also restrict any resupply of weapons
01:08systems into Iran. I want to get your thoughts on the legalities
01:12around what's happening here, both of the blockade of Iranian ports, as you were saying,
01:17but also Iran demanding the right to collect tolls from vessels passing through the strait.
01:23What are the legalities around these things that are happening?
01:26Well, when we think it's the Strait of Hormuz, it is an international strait. And within it,
01:30it has a traffic separation scheme that goes through the middle, outside of Iranian territorial
01:35waters and outside of Omani territorial waters. So as an international strait, no country is allowed
01:40to exact control over that strait. And certainly, they're not allowed to try and charge tolls or force
01:47shipping to go in a different direction, which is what Iran has been doing. It's also been attacking ships in
01:52that strait, which is also illegal and a war crime, generally, if these are civilian merchant mariners.
01:59Now, when we think about the blockade of Iranian ports, this is legal in war. Now,
02:05earlier in this year, President Trump announced a blockade on Venezuela. Now, that actually wasn't
02:11really a blockade. It was a boarding of certain stateless vessels. It was effective,
02:14but it wasn't a naval blockade. Because Israel, US and Iran are at war, then the US is lawfully
02:21allowed to enact a naval blockade on Iran if they meet certain conditions. Some of those conditions
02:27include they need to allow food and other critical supplies to support the civilian population to go
02:32in to the port. The second is it needs to be implied impartially, which means applied to all vessels,
02:39regardless of their flag. And the US have said that. So this isn't a blockade of Iranian vessels.
02:44It is a blockade of all vessels going in and out of Iran. It also needs to be effective. There's
02:49a few other legal conditions. The way the US have announced this, it hasn't come into force yet.
02:54It is consistent with international law and the law of naval warfare. How they enact it may be a
03:00different thing. But again, I think this is probably an appropriate step to apply economic leverage
03:05that does not involve the destruction of Iranian infrastructure. What is for sure is that we're
03:10not seeing free-flowing activity through the Strait of Hormuz. So what needs to happen to restore
03:15traffic there, in your view? Right. So, look, the Strait of Hormuz isn't closed. It's constantly
03:20reported as closed. What has happened is ships are disturbed from going through. Normally,
03:24you'd have about 130 ships go through every day. Over the last six weeks, there's only been 130 in total,
03:30and most of those have been Iranian ships. To restore confidence in ships going through,
03:36then you need to demonstrate to them that there is no risk. Now, part of that requires naval presence,
03:40and we saw on Sunday two US naval ships go through the Strait of Hormuz. I think that was part
03:45of a
03:45start to a reassurance campaign. Two, the US will need to address the mines question, either clearly
03:50state that Iran hasn't laid mines, which I suspect is the case, or if Iran has laid mines, clear them.
03:57And
03:57there are US mine clearance assets on their way across the Indian Ocean now to do that. Once that has
04:04happened, then there'll need to be information sharing with those merchant ships about what is and
04:09is not safe. And those merchant ships will need to feel comfortable to go through. That's going to
04:13take some time. But I think what we're seeing now is a change in a phase of the activity from
04:18prior to the
04:19ceasefire, attacks on key military objectives in Iran, to now a focus on reassuring ships and
04:26reducing Iran's economic... sorry, creating an economic impact for Iran. I mentioned 130 ships
04:32have gone through that Strait in the last six weeks. Most of those have actually been Iranian,
04:36carrying Iranian fuel, which has allowed Iran to continue to fund the Iranian Revolution Guard Corps'
04:42force of resistance in this conflict.
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