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As the US-Israel war on Iran continues to send shockwaves across the world, middle power countries like Türkiye redefine what it means to exercise strategic autonomy while balancing regional responsibility. From the first Kuala Lumpur-Ankara Dialogue, Nailah Huda speaks with Dr Mustafa Caner from SETA and Dr Kadir Temiz from ORSAM, unpacking how Türkiye is navigating rising tensions and recalibrating its strategic posture.
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00:07This is Awani Global with me, Nailah Huda, and this week we are at the Kuala Lumpur-Ankara Dialogue,
00:13the very first edition hosted by the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, ISIS Malaysia,
00:18and co-hosted, of course, with the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, SETA, from Turkey.
00:25And this dialogue brings together key policy thinkers and decision makers who have closely followed
00:30and also helped shape the six-decade partnership between Ankara and Putrajaya,
00:36exploring how their shared interests continue to influence regional geopolitics.
00:42The timing of this dialogue is, of course, particularly apt as the whole world looks to middle powers
00:48in how they navigate a global crisis, especially the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.
00:56All eyes are, of course, on this crisis.
00:58And for that, in this hour, we want to unpack some of the geopolitical shifts,
01:03key questions faced by the region.
01:05I'm joined by Dr. Mustafa Janir, foreign policy researcher at the Foundation for Political and Economic Social Research,
01:14SETA, Turkey, and also assistant professor at the Zakaria University.
01:18I want to dive straight into the meat of the issue.
01:21Of course, the whole world is looking to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.
01:26Your perspective coming from the Western Asian region, do you think this is a turning point for the region
01:32or is this part of a much longer pattern that we're going to see unfold?
01:37It is definitely one of the decisive moments in the history of the region.
01:43And I believe that the region will not be the same after this war because Iran is not like Syria
01:53or Iraq
01:53or other, you know, relatively, you know, weak powers, weak states, or in the literature we call them failed states
02:05or like Lebanon.
02:06So, Iran is a functioning state and Iran is a strong state with 90-plus million people living in the
02:16country.
02:17It has institutional resilience, has strong institutions, strong army, and the geographical advantage also, demographic advantage.
02:31So, it tells us that with superpower and Israel engaging in war with Iran, the region is being faced and
02:47will be faced major transformations.
02:52For example, Iran wants to formalize its de facto controlling position over the Strait of Hormuz.
03:02So, Iran is not, you know, settling less than, you know, formalizing its regulatory position.
03:16It claims that with Oman, they are going to control the Strait and under international law, actually, it's a debated
03:27position
03:27because other Gulf states also wants partly control the Strait.
03:38So, it's a debated position, but since Iran has been forced to engage in this war, I'm saying that this
03:50is an, you know, unprovoked war against Iran.
03:54So, unjustified under international law.
03:57So, but they want to turn this position, a strategic position, translate it into a strategic victory.
04:09So, I think Iran will not settle for less than controlling Strait of Hormuz.
04:17They want war reparations, they want war reparations, they want guarantees that Iran is not going to be attacked again
04:28by the U.S. and Israel.
04:29So, these all, actually, conditions and demands are going to change the whole regional structure.
04:40I mean, if they are going to be met, of course, and if they are not going to be met
04:47by the United States, it means that Iran will lose this war.
04:53So, then the United States will dictate other essential conditions on the region.
05:02So, one way or another, we will not see the region as the same like before this war.
05:13I think this perspective that you mentioned, I think, is also shared by Malaysia, based on what we've heard from
05:18the Prime Minister, Dr. Sriana Ibrahim.
05:20He shared the same viewpoint as well.
05:22But, how do you see Turkey specifically navigating this situation, how they have navigated this, and what sort of role
05:31can they play?
05:32As you know, Turkey had tried so hard to prevent this war from happening.
05:39So, Turkey had, you know, activated diplomatic mechanisms prior to this war.
05:46Turkey had talked with Iran, with the United States, with other regional actors like Saudi Arabia, Qatar.
05:56They wanted to prevent this war.
06:00However, the war erupted.
06:03So, Turkey's priority now is to contain this war.
06:08You know, in a way or another, you know, in a way or another, stopping this war, spread to another
06:15areas, contain it, and if it's possible, stop the war, end it now.
06:24Forcing actors, parties, to sit down, talk, and engage in, you know, diplomatic process and find a solution, a political
06:34solution, not a military solution.
06:36Because, Turkey doesn't believe that military solutions are, you know, the best solutions or, you know, better solutions compared to
06:46other solutions.
06:47Only the political solutions, inclusive, all-encompassing, addressing all parties' concerns could be, you know, like the ultimate, productful solution.
07:06So, that's why Turkey is pushing, and Turkey has a unique position with regard to, you know, these parties engaging
07:15in war, because Turkey is able to talk simultaneously with Iran and the United States.
07:22So, that's why Turkey has a unique position.
07:25Turkey has functioning lines, diplomatic lines with all actors, regional actors also, and they also initiated, you know, Turkey with
07:38Egypt, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, initiated a new process to end this war.
07:45So, I would say Turkey's priority is diplomacy, ending this war, and, you know, boosting stability and security in the
07:54region.
07:54What about the role specifically played by President Recep Erdogan?
08:00What are your thoughts on how the President has, so far, positioned the country diplomatically and strategically, particularly in resetting
08:08relations with some of the countries in the region that we've seen over the past few years?
08:12Yeah, sure.
08:13Turkey has lately normalized and developed its relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
08:22You know, you know, Qatar has always been in a, you know, an exceptional position with regard to relations with
08:36Turkey.
08:37Turkey.
08:38We have a military base in Qatar.
08:41We had great, you know, put great efforts in 2017, in an effort to protect Qatar from, you know, this
08:54blockade in that time.
08:56So, we have friendly relations with Qatar.
09:01We have friendly relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states as well.
09:06So, President Erdogan has a unique leadership style.
09:11And his priorities are stability, peace, and regional responsibility.
09:20That means that anything happens in the region concerns Turkey.
09:25Because Turkey shares a long border with Iran, Syria, Iraq.
09:31So, Turkey is the central player in the region.
09:35That's why regional responsibility is the key concept here, which is, you know, followed by President Erdogan.
09:44And he also emphasized stability, peace, boosting economic relations.
09:51You know, developing political and economic relations at the same time and also societal relations.
09:57So, that's why Israel's actions, which, you know, are threatening the regional stability, is unacceptable for President Erdogan and for
10:09Turkey as well.
10:10So, I think President Erdogan contributes to the regional stability and peace in that sense.
10:20And that's why Israel is constantly targeting President Erdogan personally.
10:29Yes.
10:30That is looking outward, looking externally.
10:34But if we were to look inward, look internally in Turkey, of course, I think for a lot of the
10:39Malaysian audience,
10:39the primary concern, I guess, by default of distance geographically, our major concern is the sort of economic impact that
10:48we're already feeling in the region.
10:50How exposed is Turkey's economy to developments in this conflict?
10:55And what sort of measures have been put in place to mitigate potential fallout from the conflict?
11:00Turkey, like with other regional players, and also not only regional actors, but the whole world is being affected by
11:11this war, economically, directly or indirectly.
11:15So, Turkey is also being affected by this war, economically, first and foremost, and also security-wise, because Turkey is
11:28sharing a long border with Iran.
11:30So, but concerning your question about the economic aspect, as you know, Turkey is dependent on, you know, energy sources.
11:41Turkey is exporting oil and natural gas, LNG and other forms.
11:48And, increasement in this, you know, the prices of these energy sources directly affecting Turkish economy, it's a fact.
11:58But, we want to contain that negative effects.
12:03So, that's why the government and economic players in Turkey, they are searching for alternatives, they are searching for ways
12:15to contain these economic fallouts.
12:17And, they have been successful so far, to make the Turkish public being less affected by these wars, economic effects,
12:31economic fallouts.
12:32But, if this war drags on, I mean, if it becomes a protracted, prolonged war, if it becomes a war
12:43of attrition like, you know, Ukraine-Russia example.
12:47So, unfortunately, we will feel the economic fallout directly.
12:55So, that's why Turkey is trying to prevent that from happening.
13:00That's why Turkey tries to, you know, activate all these diplomatic channels, diplomatic mechanisms to end this war permanently.
13:12And, you know, it's the only way to protect Turkish economy, and also, you know, global economy as well.
13:20Definitely, tough times ahead.
13:21Thank you so much for your insights, Dr. Mustafa.
13:25That is all the analysis in this first half of the segment.
13:29Plenty more analysis and insights will bring you from the Kuala Lumpur, Ankara dialogue.
13:34Don't go anywhere. We'll be back after the short break.
13:51You are back, tuning in to Awani Global, and we are still at the Kuala Lumpur, Ankara dialogue in Kuala
13:56Lumpur.
13:57And joining me right now, we have Dr. Khadir Temiz, President of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies, or ORSAM,
14:03from Ankara.
14:04Thank you so much, Dr. Khadir, for joining us today.
14:07Of course, we want to dive straight into the meat of the issue.
14:11All eyes are, of course, on the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.
14:15And I believe that's, you know, a major topic that the elephant in the room that you can't avoid, really,
14:20in this dialogue itself.
14:21But just talking about the crisis that we have in our hands right now, do you see this as a
14:27major turning point for the region?
14:29Or perhaps do you see this as a part of a much longer pattern that we're going to see unfold
14:34over time?
14:35Actually, both. On the one hand, it's a big rupture, it seems to me.
14:42And on the other hand, in a longer pattern, we have seen in our region for several years of conflicts,
14:49you know, the economic development problems or radicalization, and especially external intervention to our region by some countries, as you
15:00know.
15:01And then, but today, what's happening is, in my opinion, is very critical and a very important turning point in
15:11terms of nature of the conflict.
15:13Until now, for example, if you look at the Second World, post-Second World War process, and we have seen
15:20several conflicts,
15:21and Palestinian-Israeli, but they controlled unlimited conflicts.
15:25Yes, we have also seen wars.
15:27For example, Arab countries come together against Israel.
15:30Sometimes some specific countries were against Israel, and we have seen this kind of conflict, like the Iraq War.
15:39But for the first time in our regional history, it's becoming more regional.
15:45Unfortunately, this war, I mean, the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is becoming more regional.
15:53I mean, the spillover effect, we will see if it continues like that.
15:58I mean, the escalation process in the conflict is rising up.
16:04And more than one month now, we are talking, and probably you are also observing the developments.
16:11And the latest one, Trump administration or Netanyahu, is making speech about the escalation, and they are threatening.
16:20And so this nature of conflict, and the first time we have seen in our region, we don't know what
16:27will be happening in the next step.
16:29And maybe for the first time in GCC or in Egypt, in Turkey's perspective, it's unclear to see the future.
16:38Okay, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and even Pakistan is pushing forward the negotiation process, pushing all actors to talk about
16:48the peace and regional order.
16:51But at the end of the day, unfortunately, we couldn't reach this point.
16:57So tomorrow what will happen, it just depends on now the secret negotiation, I think the backdoor diplomacy.
17:07Yes, we know it, and there are a lot of talks, you know, between several actors.
17:14But unfortunately, even yesterday night, Iran rejected the U.S. proposal.
17:21And in addition to this one, Iran proposed the 10 points, including a lot of, you know, proposals.
17:33And okay, we will see, wait and see, and hopefully we will reach at least a ceasefire now, and then
17:41turn back to negotiation.
17:43So in terms of these, actually we are witnessing a turning point in our region.
17:49I mean, you mentioned backdoor diplomacy, and we know Turkey has been actively playing this role in trying to avoid
17:58this conflict from happening in the first place throughout the years.
18:01But now that as we see it developing, we see it escalating, probably beyond what the U.S. and Israel
18:09ever envisioned, what kind of role do you see Turkey playing in navigating this?
18:13Yes. Yes. And from the beginning of war until today, Turkey tried to push conflict to a more peaceful sense.
18:28I mean, the, the containment of, let me say like that. First of all, Turkey's strategy was to contain it.
18:35Contain it where, at least contain to Iran, Hormuz, etc. And then, I mean, the Turkish position to put around
18:45is more regional one.
18:46I mean, the attacking the GCC, attacking to Turkey and other neighboring countries, not illegitimate.
18:52Of course, the war against Iran was not legitimate.
18:55Yeah. Yeah. But in terms of containment, at least, very important agenda for Turkey, for, for one month.
19:03Turkey is still trying to push this containment strategy, at least for the conflict.
19:09Another one, active diplomacy we have seen from Turkey's side.
19:13The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, visited several, you know, regional countries, including Islamabad in recent weeks,
19:21and just talked to counterparts about the possible negotiation.
19:26And Turkey has advantage of it, because Turkey can talk both sides.
19:30Turkey is NATO member, have, in several years, good relation with Trump administration, and now very good relation with Iran,
19:40because Turkey is against this kind of disruptions and chaotic atmosphere in our region.
19:48So, we have a lot of common interests with Iran.
19:53So, Hakan Fidan also talked directly to Iranian counterparts.
19:58So, this active diplomacy is going on.
20:01But, in addition to this one, Turkey is also focusing on its internal resilience.
20:07Because, you know, the energy crisis, all neighboring countries is becoming, again, more unstable.
20:13Now, Turkey is, you know, witnessing this for several decades.
20:18From the 1990s until today, there is not any, unfortunately, the regional order in our close borders.
20:25You see the Syrian civil war, how it affected Turkey, and from migration to conflict.
20:32And then, so, Turkey has this experience to manage these conflicts.
20:37So, internal resilience, I mean, from economic shocks and energy prices goes up.
20:45And then, of course, the security threat and new security threats, we are expecting from these new instabilities in our
20:54region.
20:55So, Turkey is taking necessary, you know, measurement necessary, you know, steps to prevent all of this.
21:04Turkey is navigating well, and if you look at it, Turkey's position now is more active and more resilient than
21:13any other countries in the region.
21:15You mentioned some really important points there about this internal resilience, but also how Turkey is actively trying to contain
21:24this.
21:25I think containment is key here.
21:27But unfortunately, as we've seen from the get-go, from the first week of the war, this has, unfortunately, spilled
21:34over into most of the region, if we can say.
21:37How would you describe the broader implications for stability in the region?
21:42I mean, if we were to look at President Erdogan's efforts over the past few years to try and strategically
21:49position the country in terms of its diplomatic relations,
21:54particularly in resetting relations with some of the countries in the region,
21:57how do you think this would mean for the overall stability for the region for West Asia?
22:06Yes, actually, first of all, Turkey's positioning in that kind of conflict is very clear.
22:13And Turkey is against every kind of territorial, you know, problems and territorial violation of any country, neighboring country in
22:24our region.
22:25The second one, Turkey supports the central governments.
22:29I mean, not non-state actors in our region.
22:34Because according to Turkey's narrative, economic stability or economic development depends on the security.
22:41I know these security issues can be handled only by the central strong states.
22:50But unfortunately, if you look at the history of the Middle East, you will easily see that there is a
22:56fragile state in our region.
22:58And state structure is very weak.
23:00Therefore, Turkey, for several years, trying to push the strengthening the central governments and state structures in our region.
23:09See the Syria now. We are in the rebuilding process in Syria.
23:13And even in Iraq, Turkey has signed a kind of, you know, development road project between Iraq and Turkey.
23:21And now, Turkey, on the one hand, is pushing the security orientation in our close regions.
23:28But at the same time, an economic development and positive agendas, I mean.
23:33So this is Turkey's positioning.
23:35Now, what the President Erdoğan's made during this process is to make a kind of normalization in our regions.
23:43You see, in the past couple of years, there was relations heavily impacted by the past developments between Egypt and
23:54Turkey.
23:54The United Arab Emirates and Turkey, Saudi and Turkey.
23:58And if you look at the past three years, you will see that President Erdoğan's normalized relations with these countries.
24:06Now, we can openly, you know, talk to Egypt, Saudi, UAE now.
24:11So it's a big opportunity for Turkey to push this peace agenda in our region.
24:16Because all of the countries, we can talk, all of the countries are our brothers.
24:22Now, it is time to push this peace agenda in the region.
24:28Hopefully, Turkey will do it.
24:29But navigating its policies towards this peace, but normal, you know, stability in our region.
24:36But unfortunately, on the other hand, the escalation is going up.
24:40And then if it turns out to a big conflict, I mean, widening the conflict, probably will create a new
24:50momentum.
24:50I mean, the new, you know, era in our region.
24:54So we will describe it and we will probably, Turkey will find a solution to this new regional order and
25:03new alignments, new kind of perspective we will see.
25:07So, Turkey just pushing the cycle of stability.
25:12I mean, pushing Iran, even Israel to this stability in our region.
25:19And against every kind of destabilizer in our region.
25:23Of course, Turkey has advantage of it because of credibility science.
25:28For example, Turkey is not pushing any kind of conflict in our region.
25:32You know, you should see Syria, Yemen and Palestinian issue.
25:38Turkey is part of the international, you know, agenda, international agenda of peace, international agenda of economic stability in our
25:49region.
25:50And Turkey is still trying to talk to both sides in that conflict.
25:56Hopefully, we will reach a solution on this perspective.
25:59Just lastly, and if you can comment slightly briefly, in your view, what do you think are the possible paths
26:07this conflict could take from here?
26:09We're seeing escalation from particularly President Trump.
26:13Israel shows no sign of de-escalation as well.
26:17What do you make of this?
26:18Okay.
26:18Actually, if you look at the conflicts in the beginning, it was targeting the Iranian nuclear missiles.
26:28If you look at the Israeli or U.S. narrative of war, the objective of war was to annihilate Iran's
26:37nuclear missiles, target the proxies, and target at least some international ballistic missiles production.
26:49And I mean the Iranian military industry.
26:52So what happened then, we haven't seen any kind of success on this story.
26:59Iran resisted very well against this.
27:01Has been resilient, yeah.
27:03And then we started to discuss a new momentum in that war.
27:10Unfortunately, now U.S. and Israel is targeting civilian areas, some energy centrals, and some, unfortunately, schools, and some humanitarian
27:21crises becoming very harsh.
27:24So what I see, when you look at the conflict, is going at more escalation point.
27:31And in that, for its widening, and probably Iran's response will be very harsh, and harsher than today.
27:38And unfortunately, there is a risk to spillover, not only GCC, but also Yemen.
27:46And if you look at the proxies in Lebanon, and still there is a big fight between IDF forces and
27:54Hezbollah's militants.
27:56And probably we will see this kind of proxy wars, unfortunately, in our region.
28:01Hopefully we will not, if we reach a kind of negotiation or ceasefire.
28:08But what I see, the prospect of this war is going forward, and probably we will see more escalation.
28:15But controlled mechanisms should be created by the regional actors and external ones as well.
28:22Thank you so much for your insight, Dr. Khadir.
28:25Okay, you're all welcome.
28:25There are plenty more we would like to discuss, but that is all the time that we have today, here
28:29at the Kuala Lumpur, Ankara Dialogue with ISIS Malaysia.
28:32That is all on Awani Global this week with me, and I will catch you next time.
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