- 2 days ago
According to Mikel Arteta, Gyökeres has made Arsenal "a much better team" this season, but opinion on the striker still seems to be divided. Adam Clery looks at his performance against Atletico Madrid, and the season as a whole, to look at what he's dong for the side.
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00:00Right, hello everybody, welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel. Yes, well guessed, Adam Cleary.
00:05And I've wanted to do a Victor Jokeres video for a little while because it has been brought to my
00:10attention
00:10that as far as Arsenal fans go, the jury on him remains slightly still out.
00:18Now maybe that sounds ridiculous to you because you think he's a brilliant player,
00:22or maybe that sounds ridiculous to you because he plays football the way you imagine Keir Starmer would.
00:28But regardless, opinions on him currently are mixed.
00:32Or rather, they had been until Arsenal smashed Atleti last night and he got not only two goals,
00:38but that nice shiny little silver ball thing they give you for being man of the match.
00:43So let's have a look at what he is doing and also what he's not doing.
00:47And you, my friend, can make up your own mind.
00:53All right, so first things first, £64 million for a forward who had, up until last night,
01:00three goals and zero assists in 11 games, or if you want to include his international form,
01:05which I kind of do, three goals in 15 games, including a nine-match barren run.
01:12That, there is no other way to slice it, is quite bad.
01:16That is not enough. Like, the law of averages sort of says that something should bounce off
01:21your arse and go in at least once across nine games. So to be getting into the end of October,
01:27posting those sorts of numbers, kind of suggests that you're doing something wrong.
01:33So then the question becomes, is he? Is he doing something wrong? And I would say if you watch
01:39him play for Arsenal, then yes, he is doing something wrong. He's not finishing particularly well.
01:45He had two massive chances against West Ham. The first, when he's on the floor and just flicks
01:50a leg out at the ball and like, yeah, okay, right, that's maybe a bit weird. But the second,
01:54he gets a clean head on a floated cross, but does not direct it anywhere near the goal.
02:00Centre forwards, in form, I would say, score both of those. There was also the one against Leeds,
02:06where for some reason he doesn't think he's got the time or the balance to control the ball,
02:10and just swings a leg at it. But when you watch it back, he has definitely got the time and
02:16he is
02:16not as unbalanced as he thinks he is. So he could just trap this ball and finish it,
02:21but instead he snatches at it. And I would say all season, you've been able to see
02:25that over-eagerness, that lack of composure in his finishing.
02:30Composure, lads. Composure.
02:32It's maybe best highlighted with this one chance against Fulham, because his movement is perfect.
02:38You can see he's already gone before Saka even gets the ball under control, because he knows
02:43exactly what to do in these situations, because he's a legit bona fide, born to do it,
02:49centre forward. So he gets in, and it's not an easy chance, like the numbers say you should only
02:53be scoring that like 20, maybe 30% of the time. But you and I both know that centre forwards
03:00with
03:00balls the sizes of peaches, right, they bury this into the far corner.
03:05Jokeres though, again, just sort of snatches at it and it's too close to the goalkeeper.
03:10And the numbers for him this season do back all of that up. If you look at the old XG
03:15versus
03:15actual G stat that clubs use to measure your efficiency in front of goal, he's gone from
03:21being one of Europe's biggest over-performers last season with plus 0.26 per 90, and you basically
03:27just have to like think of that as if you create enough chances for him that that's worth like
03:33three goals, he will actually somehow score you four. That's really, really good. It's pretty
03:38much the same number that Haaland's been posting this season. But now that number has reduced and
03:44he is absolutely bang dead average at minus 0.05, which might as well just be flat zero.
03:52So just to use the analogy from before, if you create those same chances for him this season that
03:57should get him three goals, then instead of scoring four, like he would have last season,
04:02he'll just score you three. Or like 2.99 something, but that's not a real number.
04:08And the thing is, right, while that sounds bad and it looks underwhelming on a graph,
04:12that's actually fine. Like Arsenal have created him 3.4 XG in terms of chances and he scored
04:20three goals, which is like, there's nothing wrong with that.
04:24Like genuinely, having a centre forward who is statistically getting pretty much exactly what
04:29the numbers are saying he should is absolutely fine. And given that he's still new to this team
04:34and to this division, I would say that represents a really good start, provided you're still winning
04:43games. And in all of Arsenal's wins this season, Jokeres has either scored or had decent chances too,
04:50which is good. But the problem, however, comes here, right? This is the combined shot map of
04:56Victor Jokeres in both of the games that Arsenal did not win. It's away to Liverpool and home to
05:03Manchester City. And the thing you will notice immediately, if you really scrutinise this,
05:07the thing all of these shots have in common is that they do not exist. This is not an editing
05:15error.
05:15There is nothing to show you. He played 90 minutes in both of those matches and did not register
05:22one single attempt on goal, either off target or on. And that is not good. This is the reason I
05:30think
05:30why he is dividing opinion. Like, just to be completely clear with you, right, having a statistically
05:36average centre forward who just gets you the goals he's supposed to is a brilliant asset to have,
05:43provided you are A, either creating chances for him or B, still managing to win games when you're not.
05:50Like, you would be surprised how few teams even have that. Like, this 39th percentile number
05:56might underwhelm you, but it is still better than 38% of all the other forwards in the Premier League.
06:04And that's not terrible. But when you do not win a game, and let's not forget here, Arsenal are now
06:10favourites to win the Premier League. That is their one and only aim. There are so few games they can
06:17afford to not win. Then it's your centre forward, who is the one you look to, to just get you
06:24something
06:24out of nothing. Maybe it's some sort of instinctive turn and shot through three players' legs that you
06:30can't believe has found the bottom corner. Or maybe it's the aforementioned something just bouncing
06:34off your arse because you instinctively took up the correct position. Whatever it is, they are the
06:39reason why centre forwards are the most expensive players to buy in football. But the thing is, my
06:46friends, and this is where this video becomes a stinging defence of Victor Jokeres, we are quite
06:51literally not talking about him missing big chances in big games. We are talking about Arsenal not making
07:00a single thing for him in those matches. Take the Liverpool game, right? Early on, Madweke has the
07:06ball here. And I think there absolutely is a cross that takes both defender and goalkeeper out of the
07:13game and maybe gives him a goal. But they do not attempt it. And I know Madweke is on his
07:18wrong foot
07:19there, but you could try. Second half, and this is maybe even harder, but I think rather than rolling
07:24this out to the edge of the box, I think if you fire that in at your centre forward, he
07:30could
07:30potentially just stab it goalward. But again, they don't even consider that. But despite him not
07:36getting a single chance in this match, he was constantly in the right positions, making the
07:40right runs. Arsenal just did not find him. In fact, and this is where it gets interesting, right?
07:45Opta recently published this, and it's every single one of the off-the-ball runs he has made for
07:51Arsenal this season. And coincidentally, it is the most off-the-ball runs anyone has made in the
07:57Premier League this season. Or it was last week when they posted it. And the reason I was so
08:02interested in this, right, is because these are essentially all the runs Arsenal did not make at
08:08all last season. We actually showed this clip in the video about him signing for them, so apologies
08:14for reusing the footage. It's just this little thing called recycling. Sorry for caring about the
08:19planet. And it shows how when Arsenal got the ball in a position to access these channels,
08:24they simply had nobody who ever wanted to get in there, and it made them quite predictable.
08:31Odegaard, Havertz, anyone, this was not an area they were reliably able to access with a pass between
08:37the defenders, even when it was on. And it was on a lot. Now, cast your mind back to that
08:42Fulham
08:43chance we highlighted. That literally is that exact run. And it isn't a goal, sure, but it is also not
08:50even a chance Arsenal would have had last season. Having a player who will not only make this run,
08:56but knows how to time it this well, will absolutely get you something you wouldn't otherwise have got
09:01over the course of a season. He just needs to settle down a bit and stop snatching at it. But
09:07as we've
09:07shown, and yes, that is the graph of nothing, again, it is not just he who must adapt to Arsenal.
09:13Arsenal
09:13need to still do some adapting to him. These runs have occurred in every single game, and they require
09:19brave passes to make. They're low percentage, usually. In both the games, Arsenal didn't win.
09:24There were some suggestions of them being a little bit too conservative, playing with the proverbial
09:29handbrake on. And when you do that, the consequence is they did not really look to feed him in these
09:34channels when he made these runs. Here against Man City, you would argue Zubamendi makes the smarter
09:40call in playing this out wide, but that's your centre forward in a foot race 1v1 with the centre
09:47back. If you're ambitious, if you're taking risks, you put the ball in here and see if he can get
09:52the
09:52shot away for you. That is literally what you pay all that money for, but they don't do it. In
09:58fact, the
09:58one and only time in both of these games where they do find him in the channel, he gets down
10:02the side of
10:03Liverpool and makes a really good chance for Xurian Timber. So again, just like in all the other games
10:08with Victor Jokeres is not scoring for Arsenal, I would still say he's doing everything right. He's
10:14still incredibly disruptive. He's really hard for defenders to live with. He offers things both on
10:19and off the ball. And here is the big point I have been building up to, right? I think he
10:25makes Arsenal
10:26a better goal scoring team purely by being in it. Against West Ham, those two big chances not taken
10:34and that is bad, sure. But have a look at the Declan Rice goal. Arsenal get Eze in down the
10:40channel and I
10:41think last season, if this is Mourinho, he pulls off to the back post or if it's Havertz, he stays
10:46here
10:47because he wants the cutback. But Jokeres, being an actual centre forward with actual centre forward
10:52instincts, gambles and tries to get in behind. Either the shot is wide and he can jump and tap
10:58it in or if it goes across the goal and is saved, he might get a rebound. Those are what
11:03striker's
11:04instincts are. In the end, he's right about the rebound, but there's so much power on the shot,
11:09it flies past him and back out into the box. And just look at the situation. All three of those
11:16defenders have followed Jokeres in. He's directly dragged his marker into the six yard box and these
11:22two naturally have drifted a few yards with him. And that now means the most important part of the
11:29box right now is entirely unmarked. If Mourinho or Havertz are in this team, both of these players
11:35are three to four yards further out and that gap is what makes Declan Rice favourite for the ball
11:41and why he scores. I'm going to be wrong, it's a very small thing and I would not blame you
11:46for
11:46thinking it's a little bit of a reach, right? I'm certainly not saying he does that deliberately to
11:50create the chance for Declan Rice. Absolutely not. He wants to score the goal himself. That's
11:55what he's there for. But having that kind of player with that dogged determination and that desire
12:00to get on the end of everything makes you play differently as a team and that can force the
12:06opposition to leave doors open elsewhere that they might otherwise have not. Like, come on,
12:12even the chance he misses, it only comes about because he comes short, loses it, but will not give
12:17that ball up. He keeps applying himself, he stops the defender clearing it and it breaks to Erdegaard.
12:22So, yeah, like, one, I think Arsenal do need to start trusting him a little bit more in the bigger
12:27games because he's making all the right runs and he's taking up all the right positions and that is
12:31something you have to use if it's there for you. But also, other side of the coin, I think he
12:37needs to
12:38relax a little bit and stop snatching at things and trust that these strikers' instincts will get him
12:44the goals. Instincts like, oh, I don't know, don't snatch at it when it drops in the box, just
12:48concentrate on getting a connection and you never know what'll happen. Or just keep making the right
12:53runs with determination because you never know when it'll break and you can just bundle one in
12:58with your arse, or indeed in this case, your front arse. So, yes, whatever side of the Jokeres
13:05debate you are on, the fact remains that Arsenal are the third highest scorers in the league, which is
13:09good. They've got the best goal difference, which is also good. And he is their top scorer with a
13:16conversion rate that the numbers say is about right and he's still got a little bit of room
13:20to improve. So, overall, I think he's doing fine. Should he score more goals? Yes, I think he should.
13:28But until his teammates start using him as a proper focal point in front of goal, I don't think it's
13:34accurate to say he is in any way underperforming there. And if you just want one final start that
13:39you can wheel out the pub to sound incredibly clever, then I shall give you two, depending on
13:44what your mates are like. If they're nerds like mine, you can tell them that Jokeres has the seventh
13:48highest XG in the Premier League this season and is the ninth highest scorer, which out of 500 players
13:54is absolutely fine. Or if they're normal or you're talking to your dad or something, you can tell them
13:59that Jokeres has the eighth highest number of chances in the Premier League and is the ninth
14:05highest scorer, which again, out of 500 players, seems absolutely fine. Just stop looking at hate
14:12watch compilations on social media. They are turning your soul to sludge. So, yeah, I think
14:19Victor Jokeres is doing fine. And if you thought this video was fine, why not subscribe to us here
14:25at ACFC? Seamless plug. And if you enjoyed it so much, you'd like to tell me what kind of videos
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14:35the description below. I think it's the best value thing in all of football, but I have to say that.
14:39You get me across all the social medias at Adam Cleary, C-L-E-R-Y. I can't remember what
14:43else to
14:43tell you. I have a newsletter. You can subscribe to that. That'll be down there somewhere if you like
14:47reading things. And that's it. That's it. Get them back in your FPL team. Grow up. Goodbye.
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