- 2 days ago
Viktor Gyökeres is set to join Arsenal from Sporting Lisbon for something in the region of £60m. Yet, despite his incredible goalscoring record in Portugal, there are a host of concerns about his suitability for both his new team and the Premier League itself.Adam Clery looks at his career to date and shows that, even if he doesn't look like a perfect fit, he has all the raw ingredients to revolutionise the way Arsenal score goals.
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00:00Right, hello there everybody, welcome to the Adam Cleary Football Channel.
00:03Yes, well done, Adam Cleary, obviously.
00:05And not to sound like Chancellor Palpatine, but it's Jokerez then.
00:12Sorry, I was watching Revenge of the Sith last night.
00:14Anyway, Arsenal's three-year-long hunt, which I think is a fair comment,
00:17for a centre-forward, appears to be ending with Victor Jokerez.
00:22Now, is that good? Is that bad? I shall answer those questions thusly.
00:25But, let's just say, it's complicated, this one.
00:32Alright, so, headlines. Swedish international, 27 years old.
00:36I'm not doing the bit in this video.
00:38Portuguese league winner, 97 club goals, 97 in the last two seasons.
00:46And yet, despite that, this is still the same Victor Jokerez
00:49that got one goal in 12 games on loan at Swansea
00:52and could not even get a look in when he was at Brighton.
00:56Although, and here's some good trivia for you,
00:58of the paltry number of goals he got in the Premier League 2 for Brighton.
01:02This one's assisted by Ben White.
01:05That's funny, isn't it?
01:07Anyway, though, just to cut all the foreplay in this video,
01:10Arsenal want him because he is the most reliable and prolific goal scorer
01:14realistically available on the market this summer.
01:17And they have a massive problem with scoring goals.
01:22Kai Havertz missed 15 Premier League games last season with injury
01:25and still finished as their top goal scorer with nine.
01:30Trossard and Martinelli both chipped in with eight.
01:32Marino's run up front got him seven.
01:34Saka, six.
01:34Rice, four.
01:35And then everyone else with a handful here and there.
01:38Not one single Arsenal player broke double figures for them
01:42in the league last season.
01:43The first time they've managed that since 1923, by the way.
01:49And you simply cannot win the Premier League with that level of firepower.
01:54And again, just to be incredibly blunt,
01:57Arsenal's sole objective, in my opinion, should be to win the Premier League.
02:01And in fact, if we look at the last two teams to win the Premier League,
02:04they've both got a guaranteed source of 25 to 30 goals.
02:09Then at least two other players who break the 10 goal mark
02:13before you get into all the lesser contributions.
02:17And the reason I think Arsenal's only objective should be to win this league
02:20is because they conceded less goals than Man City in this season
02:25and less goals than Liverpool in this season.
02:29So they're halfway there.
02:31Like I can do all the nuanced content you like
02:34about how Zuba Mendy will help them with ball progression
02:37or they can buy Eze and dominate this channel, etc.
02:41And so on.
02:42But it's all pretty academic
02:44unless they solve the problem of scoring enough goals.
02:47And that is what Jokeres is here to do.
02:50Right, so some absolutely trademark Adam Keery over-analysis
02:54of an otherwise innocuous moment in a game of football.
02:57Arsenal are 3-0 down in the League Cup semi-final here.
03:02So it's fair to say they quite desperately need a goal.
03:05They successfully play through Newcastle's press,
03:08no mean feat, and get into the middle.
03:11Declan Rice turns, is in an impossibly large amount of space
03:16and is greeted with this.
03:20And that, from a chance creation perspective,
03:23is absolutely minging.
03:26Your front three is somehow double-parked over on the right-hand side.
03:30That's Dewey and Timber, by the way,
03:32because they did a clever rotation with Martinelli to get him up the pitch.
03:36But Kai Havertz, who for all his qualities as a centre-forward,
03:39always drifts out to this right-hand side.
03:42Like, here's a graph I used in the Sesko video
03:44showing that that is what he does.
03:47Havertz likes to play in this space more than I like
03:49to do literally nothing on the weekend.
03:53But neither him nor Timber are looking to get in behind
03:57despite this amount of space.
03:58And then on the other side, Raheem Sterling,
04:00who I think's got a really good opportunity
04:02to get into this break in the line between Trippier and Cher,
04:06is actually peeling off wide.
04:08Like, it's bad, because there's all that space in behind.
04:11And Declan Rice is more than good enough to play into it.
04:14But the lack of anyone gambling with a run
04:17into here or into here
04:19means they wind up on the edge of the box,
04:22all the space is gone, and then so is the chance.
04:25But whenever you put Victor Jokeres in those exact same situations,
04:29he isn't looking to drop off or to peel out wide.
04:31He's looking to attack this space in behind.
04:35Like, this is an example from a sporting game, right?
04:37If you're an Arsenal fan, let me know if you agree with me here, right?
04:40But if this is either Marino or Havertz or Jesus
04:44or whoever Arsenal you use,
04:46in this scenario, they'd drop into this space here, wouldn't they?
04:50They'd find this pocket,
04:52then they'd either go out to Sakahir,
04:54try and get him in behind,
04:55or let's presume this is Rice or somebody find him,
04:58and then they would spin.
05:00But Jokeres does not do any of that.
05:03He just goes.
05:05And not only does he go,
05:06but he is found,
05:07and then he scores.
05:09Like, this is a direct attacking threat
05:11through the middle of the pitch,
05:14in behind defences,
05:15and that is what Arsenal almost never,
05:19ever seem to have.
05:20And he also,
05:21and this is a very nice little optograph to illustrate it,
05:24is just incredibly direct,
05:26even without having to give him a chance.
05:28If you give him the ball,
05:30he'll try and do the same thing.
05:32If he does have to drop deep in any of these areas,
05:34he gets on the ball,
05:35and then he will bulldoze his way forward.
05:38And you've kind of got to watch him do these runs
05:40to understand them,
05:41because it's not like he's incredibly technical
05:44or skillful or really quick.
05:45He doesn't burn past defenders.
05:47He's just so strong
05:49and has such good close control
05:51that even when they do catch him,
05:53they can't really knock him off the ball.
05:55And he will quite happily jockey a defender
05:58all the way into a goal-scoring position,
06:00and then still have the balance to shoot.
06:03It's quite a unique skill he's got.
06:04And then if we have a cheeky little peek
06:06down the blouse of his stats, right,
06:07these are from the Portuguese league season exclusively.
06:10So, obviously, they look absolutely incredible.
06:14Shot volume is massive.
06:16Shot accuracy is massive.
06:17And he's creating chances as well
06:19at a phenomenal rate.
06:22But, obviously,
06:23it's the Portuguese league here.
06:25And some people will tell you
06:27that that's not a good enough league
06:29to draw accurate conclusions
06:31about his suitability for
06:33the Prem.
06:35So, let us contextualize this
06:37with his Champions League numbers
06:38from last season as well.
06:40And, obviously,
06:42yep, they take a bit of a hit
06:43because the quality of opposition
06:44is quite radically different
06:47from what he's getting in the league every week.
06:48But not so much
06:50that if I was an Arsenal fan
06:52or staff member
06:53or chief executive
06:54or something like that,
06:55I'd be overly worried.
06:57I still think they're pretty good.
06:58Still nearly a goal a game,
06:59which puts him in the elite bracket.
07:01Their shot volume's still really high.
07:02The conversion's decent enough,
07:04I would say.
07:05But, looking at the XG per shot,
07:07which is like,
07:08if you're hearing me on this,
07:09the alleged quality
07:11of all the chances he's getting,
07:13that takes a pretty massive dip.
07:15Which is what you'd expect, isn't it?
07:16Because they're playing against
07:17much better teams.
07:19Let's just give you an example here.
07:20They went from thrashing
07:21Estrella 5-1 at the weekend
07:23with 64% of the ball
07:24to playing Man City three days later
07:27and seeing 27% of it.
07:29But, the good news there
07:31is that Victor Jokeres
07:32scored seven goals
07:34in those two very different games.
07:38Seven.
07:39And the reason you can do stuff like that
07:41is the one major consistent
07:42between these two sets of numbers.
07:44The goals minus XG,
07:46which, again,
07:47if you will just humor me
07:49and go with me on the XG stuff,
07:51is a pretty important stat
07:53that football clubs do look at.
07:55Supposed to measure
07:56just how dependable you are
07:58as a forward,
07:58at the very least,
08:00can you be expected
08:01to take the amount of chances
08:03that the data says you should
08:05or, even better,
08:06can you take more
08:08than the data says you should?
08:09That's what makes you valuable
08:10as a goal scorer.
08:11And if you look at the numbers
08:12both in the Portuguese League
08:13and the Champions League
08:14last season,
08:15regardless of the quality
08:17of opposition he's facing,
08:18he is over-performing that number
08:21to the tune of, like,
08:22getting you a goal out of nothing
08:24every four or five games.
08:27It is consistent
08:28regardless of the opposition.
08:30And just, hang on,
08:31I can sense some scepticism
08:32from portions of the audience there
08:34because I know people
08:34get a bit weird about XG
08:36because it's clearly,
08:37you know,
08:37for terrible, terrible nerds.
08:39But let me just prove that works,
08:41right?
08:41You look at Kai Havertz's number,
08:42who's obviously an excellent player,
08:44but generally considered
08:45not a ruthless finisher.
08:47It's negative and quite low,
08:49which means he's doing his best,
08:50but he's not pulling up any trees.
08:51And you look at Alexander Isak's number,
08:53who is considered
08:54a ruthless, reliable goal scorer,
08:56and it's a positive number.
08:59So that does,
09:00it does play out
09:01based on what you see as well.
09:03And the reason I am at pains
09:04to have you buy into
09:05this particular statistic,
09:06right,
09:07is because it sort of proves,
09:08or at least suggests,
09:09that Jocarez is as reliable
09:11in the games
09:12where you're going to have space
09:13and be able to counter-attack,
09:15which is what everyone says
09:16he's good at,
09:17but also still reliably finish
09:19for you in games
09:21where you are up against
09:22a determined low block,
09:23which is what everyone says
09:24he's not good at.
09:26And the reason that's important
09:27is because the latter of those two
09:29is specifically
09:30the thing Arsenal seem
09:32to really struggle with
09:32and need their new goal scorer
09:35to be really good at.
09:3714 draws in the league last season,
09:39meaning there were 14 times
09:41where Arsenal
09:41were one clinical moment away
09:45from winning a game of football.
09:47Now these are all the defeats
09:48and their losses
09:49in the league last season.
09:50And if you look at this column
09:51down the right-hand side,
09:53I was going to make
09:54another big fuss
09:55about the goals minus XG thing.
09:58Like, oh my God,
09:59if they'd just taken the chances
10:00they were already making,
10:02then they'd have what?
10:03Drawn with Newcastle
10:04and West Ham?
10:06They'd have beat Everton,
10:07beat Brighton,
10:07beat Forest,
10:08beat Fulham,
10:09maybe even beat Man Utd,
10:10Chelsea and Liverpool
10:11if the finishing
10:12had been really good.
10:13But I'm not going to do that,
10:16even though technically
10:16I already did.
10:17Because I think the more
10:18interesting thing
10:19is not the chances
10:21they're already making,
10:22it's the chances
10:23they will be able
10:25to making.
10:27Make.
10:27This moment, my friends,
10:29comes from the 0-0 draw
10:30with Everton, right?
10:31Havertz has done the Havertz thing
10:32of dropping off
10:33into the right-hand half space.
10:34No shade.
10:35He's very good at that.
10:36And he uses it
10:37to get Saka
10:38into a very good position here.
10:40He skips past the defender,
10:41he gets in behind
10:42and there is just...
10:44There's no pass on.
10:46Nobody is breaking
10:47beyond the defenders.
10:48Three players here
10:49just all behind their markers.
10:51How incredibly frustrating
10:52if only someone
10:53had gambled on that.
10:54A few minutes earlier,
10:55Havertz is actually
10:56in the centre-forward area
10:58this time.
10:58Lucky us.
10:59But look how isolated
11:01Saka now is.
11:02He skips inside
11:04of this challenge,
11:04is crying out
11:06for any sort of run
11:08into this space
11:09for him to slip the ball into.
11:10But we know
11:11Erdegaard doesn't really
11:12make those from deep.
11:13He wants to stay
11:14on the edge of the box.
11:14And Havertz
11:15just doesn't make those at all.
11:17And so, again,
11:19absolutely nothing happens.
11:21How frustrating
11:22if only someone
11:22would make that run.
11:24Now, the thing is,
11:25Viocarez is not supposed
11:26to be particularly
11:27well-suited
11:28to that sort of game.
11:30If you look at his
11:30goals catalogue
11:31for sporting,
11:32it's getting into space here.
11:34It's hitting the opponents
11:35on the counter-attack here.
11:37It's not really
11:38the physical
11:38and disciplined low blocks
11:40that Arsenal see
11:41pretty much
11:42every single week
11:43in the Premier League.
11:44But the thing is,
11:45when you do watch him play,
11:46he is strong
11:47and he is physical
11:48and his movement
11:49is really good
11:50and he can get
11:51snapshots away
11:52with both feet.
11:53So I don't think
11:54he's necessarily
11:55as bad a fit
11:57for this type of
11:58game state
11:59or whatever you call it
12:00as people are making out.
12:02Don't get me wrong,
12:03I think there's quite
12:03a lot of work
12:04for Arteta to do
12:05to get him comfortable
12:06in these games.
12:07But I would argue
12:08he has got
12:09all the raw
12:10physical attributes
12:11needed
12:12to adapt
12:13his game.
12:13And in Arteta,
12:14you've got a coach
12:15who you know
12:16works really hard
12:17on the training ground.
12:19So it's not a home run,
12:21but I think it could
12:22potentially
12:22quite quickly
12:24be a good fit.
12:25Now here's another
12:26point of balance
12:26for you, right?
12:27Jocares is obviously
12:28very quick
12:29and very strong
12:29and very intelligent
12:30in Portugal.
12:32And when he gets
12:33put up against
12:33quicker and stronger
12:35and more intelligent
12:35defenders in the Premier League,
12:37he is going to struggle.
12:38Like, everyone was going
12:39mad about that
12:40hat-trick he scored
12:41against Man City,
12:42but he was up
12:42against Rico Lewis
12:43and Jemai Simpson-Pusey
12:45in that game.
12:46A week later,
12:47he had Arsenal
12:48and it was Gabriel
12:49and Saliba
12:50who had him
12:51alarmingly well-martialed
12:52for the entire
12:5390 minutes.
12:54The thing is,
12:55right,
12:56even in that game,
12:57he kept doing
12:58all the right things,
12:59he kept making
13:00all the right movements,
13:01he kept fighting
13:02for his team,
13:03and in the 85th minute,
13:05at 5-1 down,
13:09he does this.
13:10You would forgive him
13:11for having given up
13:12and yet he fights
13:13off Saliba,
13:14charges a Curior,
13:15takes it all the way
13:16to the box
13:17and hits the post.
13:19And I'll tell you why,
13:20Mr. and or Mrs. Arsenal fan,
13:22I'm showing you that,
13:23right?
13:23Because you go back
13:24to that 0-0 with Everton,
13:26do you remember this?
13:27It's the 87th minute,
13:28so largely the same
13:29period of the match,
13:30but this time,
13:30it's 0-0,
13:32it's still all to play for,
13:33you're not four goals behind.
13:35Arsenal go long,
13:36nothing comes of it,
13:37and Everton shield the ball
13:38to run down the clock.
13:40And it takes Arsenal
13:41nearly 10 seconds
13:43to gently jog someone over
13:46to force Pickford
13:48to pick it up
13:48and resume the game.
13:4910 seconds.
13:51Now from a mentality perspective,
13:53I would find that
13:54quite alarming,
13:54like it's a lack of fire,
13:56it's a lack of determination,
13:57it's a lack of fight
13:58in the final third,
13:59and it's probably caused
14:00by the fact
14:01nobody in there
14:02is a determined goal scorer.
14:04And that is the one guarantee
14:06you do have
14:07with Jocarez.
14:08Like maybe,
14:08okay,
14:09he finds it a lot harder
14:10to score goals
14:11in this division
14:11than he was in Portugal,
14:12but he will keep
14:13working for you
14:15whatever the score
14:16and however
14:17he has been playing.
14:19Like one thing
14:19you absolutely can guarantee
14:21about him
14:21is he does not
14:22give a s***
14:23how the game is going
14:24or how he's playing
14:25or if he's missed
14:26the last two or three chances.
14:28He will still do
14:29all the right things
14:30and work incredibly hard
14:31to be on the end
14:33of the next one.
14:34And honestly,
14:34I know it's impossible
14:35to quantify stuff
14:36like that with data,
14:36but I would argue
14:37going and buying
14:39a player of that
14:39kind of mindset
14:40is probably
14:41equally as important
14:43as getting you
14:44someone who guarantees
14:4525 or 30 goals.
14:47I would rather have
14:48someone who gets
14:4815 goals
14:49and plays like that
14:50than someone who gets
14:5125 and will just
14:53walk around
14:53if you're losing.
14:54So just to conclude
14:55here for you,
14:56right,
14:56I think he will help
14:57Arsenal better take
14:59the chances
14:59that they already
15:01do make.
15:01I think he will help
15:02Arsenal to create
15:03a lot of chances
15:04that they currently don't
15:05and also he should
15:07be a floor raiser
15:08for the team's mentality
15:09when it comes
15:11to goal scoring.
15:12And don't get me wrong,
15:13there is no way
15:14in hell he continues
15:15this 50 goals
15:17a season thing
15:18when he moves
15:19to the Premier League,
15:19but I don't think
15:20he's got to.
15:21Like if he gets you
15:2215, maybe 20
15:23in all competitions,
15:24that could be
15:25absolutely massive
15:26for Arsenal.
15:27That could be the
15:27difference between
15:28second
15:30and yeah.
15:32But of course,
15:33you know how this
15:33works by now.
15:34Arsenal fans,
15:34your opinion is worth
15:35considerably more
15:36than mine is
15:37in this situation.
15:38So let me know
15:38how you feel
15:39about this transfer,
15:40which I'm rolling
15:42the dice here.
15:43I kind of got
15:43reliably informed
15:44this was done,
15:45so I'm recording it
15:46under the assumption
15:46it has happened,
15:47even though right now
15:48at this exact moment
15:49it has not happened
15:50and you know how
15:52things work in football.
15:53So I might look
15:54really silly with this,
15:55but I'm relatively
15:57confident,
15:58let's say.
15:58I'm presuming I
15:59haven't made a
15:59complete tit of myself,
16:00I want to subscribe
16:01to us here at ACFC
16:03so you can see all
16:03the transfer videos
16:04we do this summer.
16:05Arsenal specifically,
16:08Madweke,
16:08Eze,
16:08you're going to have
16:09another big one
16:09before the summer's out
16:10so you might as well
16:11click the button
16:11so you don't miss that one.
16:13Don't know why I pulled a face
16:14and you can follow me
16:15across all the social medias
16:16at Adam Cleary,
16:17C-L-E-R-Y.
16:20That's how you spell it.
16:22Yeah,
16:22yeah,
16:23that's it.
16:24Bye.
16:24I think you'll score goals.
16:25I think you'll score goals.
16:29Goals.
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