00:02The ceasefire announcement was made yesterday morning Australian time between Iran, the
00:07US and later Israel and we've been looking at the ships in the Strait of Hormuz for the
00:1224 hours or so since. There have been a handful of transits if we look at the map here. Going
00:19in on the left there we have the Persian Gulf. We can see that there are many ships still
00:24anchored inside the Persian Gulf waiting to be able to leave and on the right there's
00:29the Gulf of Oman. Now over the past 24 hours we've seen about or at least seven transits
00:35through the Strait of Hormuz. Six of them were bulk cargo carriers, three of them owned by
00:41China, three of them owned by Greek companies and there was also one Chinese oil tanker that
00:47went through but all of them appeared to transit through the so-called Iranian toll booth route
00:53along the coast of Iran. These figures, about seven ships over 24 hours, it's sort of what we've
01:01seen since the start of the war. It doesn't appear that there has been an uptick of any
01:07kind of ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Which sort of goes back to Iran's
01:13statement that they made when the ceasefire was first announced. Iran said that safe passage
01:20through the Strait would be possible with coordination with Iran's armed forces. Which is
01:26effectively what we've been seeing anyway since the start of the war. It appears they've been
01:30controlling and picking and choosing who gets to go through the Strait of Hormuz.
01:34And the world has been feeling of course the impact of this disruption to oil and gas supplies since
01:39the start of the conflict. What would it take to fix the supply chain? So we've spoken to quite a
01:46few
01:46analysts on this topic, you know, what would it take for ships to run through the Strait of Hormuz and
01:53sail through and start recovering that global supply chain which has really been shocked by this
01:58disruption. And one of the things is of course the confidence to be able to get out of the
02:04Persian Gulf. And if we did see an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, we might see that outflow of
02:10ships. But there's a second factor as well according to some of the analysts we spoke to, which was
02:15will they have the confidence to go back in? And it's only when we see that traffic both ways that
02:22we can really expect to see things getting back to normal. We know that, you know, seven ships in 24
02:29hours, that's about 5% of what we would normally see going through the Strait of Hormuz both ways.
02:36That's been pretty typical of the figures that we've been seeing since the start of the war.
02:44In terms of the countries dealing with the ramifications now, we've seen a lot of
02:49alternate shipments basically. In Australia, for example, we've been getting normally a lot of our
02:55oil from Asian trading partners, countries like Singapore and Malaysia, and we are still getting
03:01those. But we're also looking to alternate shipments such as from the US. Now, this is showing the
03:07ships that are on route from the US now to Australia carrying oil. Some of them are carrying crude oil,
03:14which is not abnormal. We do ship crude oil from the US. What is unique about this is some of
03:20these
03:20ships are actually carrying refined fuel products like diesel, which is unusual. And it's a long
03:27way to go for these shipments. Normally, we try to get them from somewhere closer because it's very
03:32expensive to get from somewhere so far away. But this is sort of the reality that countries are facing
03:38right now as we sort of grapple with this global supply chain shock. Thanks, Kaysen.
Comments