00:00Here are five predictions pundits have made about how the U.S. and Israel's war with Iran could end.
00:05Scenario 1. U.S. President Donald Trump declares victory.
00:09Trump's war aims have varied from disabling Iran's military capacity
00:13to securing the Islamist regime's unconditional surrender.
00:17Whether or not he achieves those aims, U.S. midterm elections are due this year.
00:21And the longer the war goes on, analysts say, the more domestic pressure Trump will face.
00:26Trump recently said the war was pretty well complete.
00:30I think you'll see it's going to be a short-term excursion.
00:33Prompting many to speculate that he might seek a quick exit, or as his critics put it, chicken out.
00:38The second, though improbable, scenario is the Venezuela option.
00:42After putting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro onto a U.S.-bound plane in January,
00:47Trump made an ally of Delce Rodriguez his deputy.
00:50The Venezuelan regime stayed intact, but with a new woman in charge.
00:54But analysts say this war is nothing like the lightning U.S. operation in Caracas.
00:59It's dragging on, and the Iranians are fighting back.
01:02The slain Ayatollah Khamenei's hardline son Moshtaba is now in charge.
01:07And there's no Iranian Delce in sight.
01:10Scenario 3.
01:11Iran might, in theory, agree to a ceasefire with the U.S.,
01:15but it's showing no signs of looking for one.
01:17Analysts say Trump's war demands cross multiple regime red lines,
01:21so the hardliners might want to hold out.
01:25Scenario 4.
01:26Iran's regime survives.
01:28Weakened, but claiming victory after fighting the world's most powerful military,
01:32but maybe with a less ideological bent than its predecessor.
01:35But there's something missing here,
01:37namely any sign of popular protests like Iran's on January
01:41that might pressure the regime to change.
01:44Finally, scenario 5.
01:46A longer Middle East war, but not in Iran.
01:49This looks possible.
01:51Israeli officials say they may keep fighting the Lebanon-based pro-Iranian group Hezbollah,
01:56even if operations against Iran end.
01:59As for Trump's stated war aims,
02:01they're sweeping, and they keep shifting,
02:04and Iran's leaders remain standing.
02:06So the endgame is a moving target.
02:08There are multiple ways out,
02:10but none of them looks especially easy.
02:20This bright orange water in the middle of the Alaskan wilderness
02:23isn't the result of mining.
02:26It's because of global warming.
02:30This strange phenomenon is affecting local communities and wildlife.
02:35It's also a striking harbinger of intensifying climate change
02:39and a rapidly changing Arctic.
02:42Rising temperatures in the Arctic and in high mountainous areas
02:45are kicking off a chemical reaction
02:47that turns rivers rust-orange or matte white.
02:51The colors are so vivid and in such large quantities,
02:56they're visible from outer space.
03:01We compile locations from researchers
03:04and scientific publications into one global data set.
03:07We also analyzed satellite imagery
03:09to identify new locations in Russia.
03:15Together, we found that the rusting rivers phenomenon,
03:18where metals like iron dissolve into water,
03:20is now present in multiple countries around the world.
03:23the European Alps and the Pyrenees Mountains,
03:27Alaska and northwestern Canada,
03:30Siberia and Svalbard,
03:31Norway's northernmost territory.
03:43These are all places where climate change
03:45has led to permafrost thaw or glacial melt,
03:48exposing potentially reactive minerals to water and oxygen.
03:53In some places, rusting has forced communities
03:56to filter their water.
03:57In Alaska, fish have disappeared.
04:03We found that scientists that we spoke to
04:05were startled at how widespread the phenomenon is
04:08and how quickly permafrost regions are changing.
04:14The Arctic, more than anywhere else on the planet,
04:17is getting hotter.
04:21More permafrost is expected to thaw in the coming decades,
04:25and with it, the release of ancient carbon
04:27previously stored in the frozen Earth.
04:30So while it's still possible to cut emissions
04:32from fossil fuels and limit global warming,
04:36it's very likely that permafrost,
04:38in many parts of the world,
04:41will cease to exist.
04:58Wait for it.
05:14The sea is
05:28It's an old truism of wars that they are easier to launch than to stop.
05:33Think of Russia's war in Ukraine and America's in Afghanistan.
05:37It's not even two weeks since America and Israel launched their assault on Iran.
05:42But now U.S. President Donald Trump is facing that awkward scenario once more.
05:47How to end a war that has not followed the prosecutor's script.
05:52You said it would be over soon. Are you thinking this week it will be over?
05:56No, but soon. I think so.
05:58Okay, and with respect to...
05:59Very soon.
06:00There seems little doubt the turmoil in global markets is weighing on his mind.
06:04The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow conduit for 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies,
06:10threatens a massive shock to the global economy and to Trump standing back home.
06:15It's easy to see how he would dress up a decision to end the war.
06:19He would point to the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader who ruled oppressively for over three decades.
06:25He would also flag the destruction of missile launchers that had long threatened the region.
06:30But battered as the regime is, it's not yet defeated.
06:34Even if Trump decides enough is enough, the Iranian regime has no obvious reason to agree.
06:40Rather, it could opt to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, a nightmare for the global economy.
06:45The generals will be pushing, as generals always do, to intensify the offensive.
06:50And the course of wars can, of course, change overnight.
06:53But the stark question remains, what is the endgame?
07:00Rob, like, seriously, what is going on?
07:05What markets are responding to is not anything about the world outside of Donald Trump's head.
07:12The markets were anticipating, and now they have received confirmation that in the president's eyes,
07:20he wants this thing to be over.
07:22And that's a meaningful fact, even if the facts on the ground war-wise haven't necessarily changed between last week
07:28and this week.
07:29So, you know, you use the phrase taco.
07:32I'm hesitant to use that here, not only because it's kind of a joke and this is a war,
07:37but also using that term creates the impression that Trump can just close the door on this thing.
07:45Yeah, yeah, yeah.
07:46And I don't think this is that kind of a situation.
07:48There are other people involved, to say the least.
07:53So the Iranians might have a couple of words to say about whether this war is over.
07:59So might the Israelis.
08:00So that's something that this is not Liberation Day.
08:04Trump's tariff announcements in April, where when he chickens out, they are over, right?
08:09He is in charge of that in a way he is not in charge of this war.
08:37I can confirm that the U.S. Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time,
08:43though, of course, that's an option the president has said he will absolutely utilize if and when necessary at the
08:49appropriate time.
09:00This is the chart everyone should be watching right now.
09:03It's the oil price, and it's been on a wild ride, breaking through $100 a barrel at times in recent
09:09days,
09:09after the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and Iran's attacks on oil and gas facilities in the Gulf.
09:15Oil markets aren't all-knowing, but they do signal expectations as to whether or not this will be a long
09:21war.
09:22Brent crude leapt from $60 a barrel in early January to nearly double that before falling back down.
09:28Here's how the price jumped when futures markets reopened for the first time after the U.S.-Israeli attacks.
09:33Oil then broke through the $100 mark for the first time in four years on March 9,
09:38after major Gulf producers curtailed production.
09:41But then later, U.S. President Donald Trump declared the war was
09:44very complete, pretty much, sending oil prices crashing.
09:49It isn't clear whether Trump's comments reflected any real change in the war,
09:53but markets apparently did think they signaled he was looking for an exit.
09:57So now look at this chart.
09:59Futures traders have been indicating they're willing to pay significantly more for oil in April than in May,
10:05suggesting a shorter war.
10:07Investors have been buying stocks and bonds, too.
10:10Expecting an end is within sight.
10:12To be sure, Trump isn't the only player here.
10:15Israel and Iran each may have reasons to keep fighting.
10:18Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu said the campaign against Iran was
10:21not done yet.
10:24Even Trump went on to say the war was
10:26one, but not one enough.
10:28Iranian officials, meanwhile, have ruled out any plans for a ceasefire or talks with Israel or the U.S.
10:35But for now, at least, traders are betting the U.S. is seeking a way out.
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