00:00Burns on the mound versus Leiter over a night, Craig.
00:03Really a de facto pick-em game, but now we see it rising a little bit in the favors here
00:07for the Texas Rangers at about a minus 125 price, and also the total sits at seven and a half.
00:13Texas looking to shake this three-game losing streak coming up against the Reds today.
00:19Yeah, Burns of Cincinnati, one of the really good young pitchers you'll get a chance to see today.
00:24And the Reds, I think, play really good fundamental baseball to start the season
00:29because, Donnie, this is a team that on paper you look at, they got four or five guys
00:33with Suarez, De La Cruz, Stewart, McLean.
00:36You're like, they're going to hit 30, 40 home runs each, right?
00:38Like, they're all going to have huge years.
00:40It really hasn't been the case.
00:42And then you look at Cincinnati and say, man, they got all these guys that are fast
00:45and they're going to be stealing a bunch of bases at the start of the season.
00:48Donnie, they have one stolen base.
00:51One stolen base this season with Ellie De La Cruz and McLean and all these others.
00:55So how are they getting done?
00:56Again, it's been on the strength of their pitching.
00:59They haven't been scoring a lot.
01:00By the way, Donnie, the Rangers haven't been scoring a lot either.
01:03So maybe that is the recipe today.
01:06Another low-scoring game on tap between Cincinnati and Texas.
01:09You wouldn't think so on paper with the lineups that these two teams have.
01:13But the pitching is going to be good.
01:15Burns is going to get a lot of swings and misses.
01:17Pagan leads the majors and saves with three.
01:19Would he be available today?
01:21I think that has to be in question two.
01:22Maybe you look at this game halfway through and wonder if the Reds have a lead.
01:26Maybe Texas comes back at some point.
01:28Probably just a straight-up pass for me.
01:30But I don't think a lot of runs are in store.
01:32At least it hasn't seemed that way to start the season for either team.
01:36Yeah, take a look at Chase Burns.
01:37And you're right about this.
01:38Last year, Craig, 194 batters face a 35% K rate here, which was sensational.
01:4237% going up against right-handed batters.
01:45This year, you see it.
01:4619 batters he's faced, which isn't a lot.
01:48He's at 37% as a K rate here.
01:51By the way, ISO against 0.0.
01:54Weighted on base percentage against 156.
01:56Last year, Craig, as a right-handed pitcher, struggled a little bit with left-handed batters here.
02:01A 230 ISO weighted on base percentage of 357.
02:04Elevated walk rate here, but still that high K rate, which is always going to bail you out.
02:08If we flip it over and look at that Rangers lineup,
02:10the one guy that has done a lot of damage early in the season against right-handed pitching,
02:15it's Corey Seager.
02:16A 600 ISO with a weighted on base percentage of 476.
02:20Another lefty in the lineup today, Evan Carter, center fielder.
02:23A 188 ISO, which is decent, but a 387 weighted on base percentage.
02:27Those are the guys you look to in the lineup as lefties that might be able to do some damage.
02:31But as you pointed out, Craig, the greatest thing a pitcher can do,
02:34hey, I walked the guy, gave up a base hit.
02:36The strikeout is huge.
02:37One-out guy on third.
02:38Get the strikeout.
02:39Can't have that positive out here.
02:40It's going to move a run across the plate.
02:42That's what I'm interested to see here, Craig.
02:43The lefties going up against Chase Burns today.
02:46Yeah, and look, Burns was very, very highly touted over the last couple of years,
02:51so it doesn't surprise me to see him having this kind of success.
02:55But you just generally don't associate the Reds with a 5-3 start,
03:00getting off to it with winning games, not stealing bases,
03:04not having Hunter Green, and still playing this well.
03:06So a lot of credit, by the way, to the manager also.
03:10And Terry Francona, as I talked about, I think that Cincinnati is one of those sneaky teams this season.
03:16I don't know who's going to win this game because, again, I could see a more low-scoring affair here.
03:20But as we look at the board and you look at 15 games or 14 games and you say,
03:25find the best three or four unders, to me, this is another one of those today.
03:28I just don't see a lot of runs coming from either team.
03:32And by the way, you're right about the middle of that lineup.
03:34Like, hey, Seager can have great ISO power numbers.
03:35Same thing with Jake Berger.
03:36Both of those guys have struck out quite a bit against right-handed pitching.
03:39But then you take a look at Peterson, Smith, and Young right behind them.
03:43All 0.0 ISO power numbers against right-handed pitching.
03:47So you get guys on base, got to be able to drive them home.
03:49They haven't been able to do that.
03:50Take a look at Jack Leiter on the mound here for the Texas Rangers.
03:53Been pretty solid on the season.
03:54Only 24 batters that he's faced.
03:57Craig, a 174 ISO, which is about average, but a really good weighted on base percentage of 280.
04:01He's been great against right-handed batters, but not so great against lefties.
04:05You take a look at that lineup for the Cincinnati Reds today.
04:07You're going to have TJ Fridell at the top of that lineup, as well as Ellie Dela Cruz,
04:10who's a switch hitter.
04:11We're batting from the left-hand side today, but not a lot of lefties in that lineup.
04:15And that's where Jack Leiter's been hit up this year so far.
04:17Yeah, and Dela Cruz off to a good start.
04:19But again, this is a guy that can steal 70, 80 bases and not many to start with.
04:25Sal Stewart got off to that real hot start.
04:27They do seem to be making contact and hitting the ball more often, and the Reds' emphasis in the offseason
04:34was to get aggressive on extra base hits and tagging up.
04:39So keep an eye on that today.
04:40That could lead to either some more runs or maybe even, conversely, some more outs.
04:45So fun game for me.
04:46I'll be locked into watching because, Donnie, when I got a four-game series broadcasting coming up, I got to
04:51keep an eye on the opponent.
04:52And the Marlins' opponent is the Reds the next four days.
04:55And by the way, you're going to see Eugenio Suarez love him against right into pitching.
04:59Hasn't forced a walk yet, but has struck out 43% of the time in his plate appearances here.
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