00:00This idea that the president is in discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end the military operations
00:05in Iran, what do we know about who or whom he is speaking to?
00:10We don't know much at all. In fact, that would appear to be by design, at least to hear the
00:16Trump administration tell it.
00:17You have Secretary Rubio being asked in a television interview today the identity of those interlocutors in the Iranian regime.
00:24Keep in mind that officially, when it comes to the known spokespeople of the regime, what remains of it, and
00:30enough remains to stay in control of the country, they've denied having direct talks and they have openly scorned the
00:36various approaches made by Trump.
00:38So Rubio says that they cannot disclose the identity of those interlocutors for fear that they would face school settling
00:48within Iran.
00:50It's really hard to know what to make of this.
00:52It would appear, if this is true, that the Americans have found someone to talk to, someone to peel away
00:58from the main regime and perhaps create a post-war regime or the makings of a post-war regime, a
01:05renegade within the existing regime.
01:07But then the question would be, can those people deliver if they're renegades, if they can't be publicly acknowledged, and
01:13indeed, if they're being publicly denied by the people we know publicly to be in charge of the country?
01:19So many questions. I want to layer on top of that, Dan, Houthi militants launching ballistic missiles at Israel Saturday
01:27morning.
01:28So marking their entry into the month-long war with Iran that has already caused, as you know, so much
01:34chaos in energy markets and killing thousands, as we mentioned earlier, feels like an escalation to me.
01:39And then you could layer on top of that to U.S. military and the troops that they've been sending
01:44to the region.
01:47It does. The vector is definitely toward escalation.
01:50I would say when it comes to the Houthis of Yemen, with that not surprising entry into this war, they
01:56previously took part in this war.
01:57Indeed, they were firing directly on the U.S. Navy and were fired on in turn only about a year
02:02ago.
02:03However, this was a fairly muted attack with which to open up a new front with Israel.
02:08It was two missiles, one surface-to-surface, one cruise, neither of which hit home.
02:13And indeed, the Israelis seemed to be at pains not to make too much of it, perhaps not wanting to
02:18serve them a propaganda victory in threatening retaliation, threatening escalation.
02:23That attack by the Houthis, to my knowledge, has not recurred since Saturday.
02:28Quite an odd development there.
02:29However, anyone involved in shipping in the Gulf, in the Red Sea, will be very worried about the potential re
02:35-entry of the Houthis.
02:38They've proven very able to disrupt maritime traffic in the past.
02:43Hey, Dan, before we let you go, and we're having, apologies, we're having a little bit of connection issues.
02:46We're going to try to get that worked out.
02:48In Israel, where is the Netanyahu administration in terms of wanting to exit this war or being aligned with what
02:58we're hearing from President Trump?
02:59Is there daylight between them, or do they seem aligned with their messaging?
03:06There is no daylight that can be visible.
03:08I guess that's the point of daylight.
03:09The Israelis, like the Americans, are saying they're in this to get the job done.
03:13However, there is a diminution of expectations when it comes to a toppling of this regime.
03:18It's worth remembering from the outset, both President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu described the potential toppling of the Iranian
03:24regime as an aspired-to downstream effect of the primary objectives of this war.
03:29The primary objectives being defanging Iran in terms of a destruction of its nuclear and advanced military capabilities.
03:36So both sides said at the outset that they would prepare the ground for Iranians internally, organically, to bring down
03:45that regime.
03:46That has not happened.
03:47And it would appear that if there is a reassessment, it would be in the direction of making do with
03:52that destruction of Iranian capabilities and letting time tell in terms of a largely ruined country and disarray in Iran,
04:02whether in the coming months and weeks, perhaps, the Iranian opposition, such as it is, is able to seize the
04:08situation and rise up to topple the regime from within.
04:11If there is a review underway, the review would be on that downstream ambition, the ambition of a regime change
04:18internally.
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