00:00A lot of focus on whether or not ground forces are going to enter Iran.
00:07I mean, obviously Iran's got, I don't know, maybe you've got a better number than me,
00:10but the numbers I'm seeing, somewhere in the region of 600,000 active duty personnel.
00:15And I'm wondering whether with the sorts of numbers that we're reading about
00:18being deployed to the region and possibly entering Iran on the ground,
00:23what sort of a response would they be met with?
00:26And what sort of a chance would they stand of making a meaningful difference?
00:30Well, I think what we have to bear in mind in military terms is the relative power
00:35where the impact is being felt.
00:38So if, for example, the Americans chose to control the Straits of Hormuz,
00:43there's any number of places they could land and could also defend that area.
00:48They can either land on the islands, Abu Musa, and the Greater and Lesser Tomba.
00:53I wouldn't recommend that because you simply become targets with very little strategic impact.
00:58They could land on the northern side of the Straits of Hormuz and control the traffic themselves
01:04because of the Musendam Peninsula in the south, being Omani, of course, and UAE to the south,
01:10that gives you quite a bit of control already.
01:12If they were to hold, for example, a piece of the Iranian mainland opposite there,
01:17it's very difficult to access that part.
01:21If you look at the geography, it's backed by mountains as one real sort of coastal road.
01:27It would be very difficult to deploy 600,000 troops in any sort of order to oppose that.
01:32And, of course, they would have the challenge of facing not only the might of the American Navy,
01:38but also the Air Force as well.
01:40And we saw in Iraq that ground troops unsupported by aviation or, indeed, heavy missile attack,
01:47I'm afraid, are not going to survive.
01:49So I think force ratios are quite important in terms of ground troops,
01:54but I think the amount of available fighting power that can be put into any particular part is really important.
02:01I think if the Americans accompany that sort of ground assault with the idea of liberating Iran from the current
02:10regime,
02:10I think that might pick up speed politically as well.
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