00:00If we indeed do see ground forces at some point in some form, how is that likely to sit with
00:06the American people based on your polling? First and foremost, Americans are not in favor of that
00:10in a general sense, not just specifically with Iran, but in general. They've been against
00:16strong muscular interventions. They have the idea of forever wars in their head,
00:23and so they're not in favor. More specifically, a majority of Americans would be against
00:30interventions of that kind, and only 7% of Americans would be in favor of strong
00:35intervention with lots of troops on the ground. And so there's not a lot of support overall for
00:41such interventions. Really interesting to put numbers on this, Cliff. It's great to have you
00:46back. More than a month into the conflict, you find at Ipsos, more people disapprove than approve.
00:5161% disapprove, 35% approve. But I'm curious about the trajectory that you've seen in the last five
00:58weeks. You point out President Trump's approval rating has declined three points since the strikes
01:03began at 40%. What does that mean? He's bleeding support ever so slowly. Trump and his administration
01:11haven't fallen off a cliff. But overall, Americans are beginning to feel it. I would say it's less to
01:17do with the abstract notion of intervention, and much more specifically about price at the gas pump.
01:24Americans feel that. People feel that in general. And that's what's really eroding support in the
01:30short term. So it's about the economics here at home, essentially, is what you're saying. We've known
01:35for a long time that affordability is the issue that seems to be top of mind for voters. Is it
01:41fair
01:41to say that this war is actually exacerbating the affordability concerns that were pre-existing?
01:46Yes. And typically, foreign interventions don't affect the home front, don't affect domestic issues.
01:52One thing is one thing. Another thing is another, we often say. But in this specific case, obviously,
01:56the price of oil is critical for everyone and for Americans' household budgets. And they're feeling
02:02it right now. And it goes against the primary issue of the midterms, which is affordability.
02:07And indeed, going into this conflict, we were saying that the Republicans are going to have
02:12a challenging year. Trump's party will have a challenging year. I think we could say even more so,
02:18given what we're seeing today. Interesting. There are three numbers that you put on one page that say
02:23everything you need to know, Cliff, based on your findings. Americans unclear on goals,
02:29pessimistic about gas prices and security. The White House has been working overtime to try to
02:34delineate clear objectives here. But people still aren't always feeling it. 65% say gas prices will get
02:42worse. We're at $3.99 today. So welcome to $4 a gallon. 66% say the president has not clearly
02:48explained goals. This number is a problem for the White House. 29% believe U.S. involvement in
02:55Iran will improve U.S. security. How difficult will this be for the president if he can't get that
03:00number higher? That's the trifecta, the trifecta of problems. Indeed, we might be able to swallow high
03:07gas prices if we think this is making us safer. Yeah, but even then, even then true, even then,
03:11the number one issue is affordability. That will always weigh more in people's mind than security.
03:19And so it really comes down, obviously, all three are important. Most importantly is,
03:24how much am I paying at the gas pump? Can I make ends meet? Can I afford things to make
03:29my family go?
03:30Well, so when we consider that those are the domestic concerns, this has been a president that
03:35has been much more internationally focused than you might have thought listening to his campaign
03:38speeches and his messaging initially when he came to office a second time. It's not just Iran. It's
03:42also been Venezuela. He's talked a big game about Greenland, even Cuba. Are any of those initiatives
03:49popular? You were talking about how this isn't just Iran. It's interventionism as a whole that
03:53Americans are disapproving of. Yeah, it's an agenda that's misaligned with what people here in the
03:57United States want. Indeed, I would even double down and say misalign with his base. The MAGA
04:05Republicans, the America first Republicans don't want forever wars. And we're beginning to see on
04:10the margins a winnowing away of that support. Indeed, he still has strong support among Republicans
04:16in general, but there are cracks and fissures in the foundation. Biggest drops are on cost of living
04:23and the economy. It's almost as if we're not talking about a war. But you did ask about moral
04:29leadership in the world. What what did you learn? Well, Americans are highly critical of what we're
04:34doing. Once again, going back to forever wars, there's there's a high level of critique of what
04:39was done. There was a desire to change things in the last few electoral cycles to change America's
04:45position vis-a-vis the rest of the world when it comes to our military might. And today, many Americans,
04:53a majority of Americans believe that we're not the same moral leader that we once were. And Trump is
04:59confronting that today. And we see it in his numbers. Well, and we talk about this as President
05:04Trump confronting this kind of grim reality in terms of public sentiment. But you were speaking
05:09a moment ago, Cliff, about how this was reflective of his party as a whole, and Republicans who were
05:13going to have to stand for reelection in November. Looking at the midterms picture right now,
05:19what how how has this war changed, in your mind, the midterm outcome or potentially exacerbated how
05:27extreme those outcomes could look like when we're talking about seats flipping? Yeah, we already
05:30thought that the Dems were most probably going to take the House. Now the question is by how much.
05:35And if this sort of scenario persists, doesn't have to persist until Election Day, but well into this
05:41year, that difference could be large, the victory gap could be large. Indeed, we are already not just us
05:47at Ipsos, but in general, the market of pundits and and forecasters are already reassessing the
05:53Senate. I think it's in play, where it wasn't maybe a few months ago, maybe 5050. We can debate that
05:59a
05:59bit that the specific proof, specific point estimate. But ultimately, the administration and
06:06the party, the Republican Party are in a bad place for today. You look at history in your research,
06:11White House typically loses seats in the midterms, everyone knows that. And you put a number on it,
06:15the average is a 25 seat swing. We talked to Susan DelBene last week, who chairs the DCCC. They're
06:21going after Trump plus 13 seats around the country. They think that number could be in the 30s or 40s,
06:28Cliff. And obviously, a Democrat is going to speak that way at this stage of the race.
06:32Will the price of gas determine whether that's true? Yeah, the price of gas and the sense of
06:38affordability. So it's not just gas, but that that's a big driver. But how do people feel how
06:42American feel in general? Are they able to make ends meet? And ultimately, I would not be surprised
06:47we would, you know, if we had a 30 or 40 seat swing. I wouldn't. We haven't redone our models
06:54at Ipsos yet. But the indicators, everything, approval ratings, generic ballot, they all are
07:00pointing in that direction. Well, of course, we're talking about an election that is still just over
07:05seven months away. Cliff, you said a moment ago that it's not necessarily about November. But if this
07:09goes on for much further, what is the when's the crunch point where there's not going to be
07:13recovering? If you were someone an incumbent in the Republican Party, he was trying to stay in power
07:18in November. Where does where is there kind of no room for recovery? I think June or July, that's
07:25sort of the point of no return. That said, it's much easier to go down in the polls and come
07:30back up.
07:31That goes to sort of approval ratings as well as a generic ballot. So anything they lose now,
07:37they might recuperate a little bit, but they won't get back to Sasko Ante. So overall,
07:42sort of the conditions are set. It looks like it's going to be a difficult year for Republicans.
07:46You know, the president talks about the golden age and how this is the greatest economy in the world.
07:50It really was before we started striking Iran. You find out 68% of Americans do not believe the
07:59economy is booming. Only 30% believe that. And that that runs against every message that's coming out
08:05of the White House. And that's an earlier poll, by the way. And we specifically put that in there.
08:09Now, things were not good going into Iran. Things were not going into this moment already for
08:14Republicans. Americans do not feel like things are going well. Again, they have they see themselves
08:20as having difficulties making ends meet. It's about affordability. It's not about the inflation rate
08:25inflation rates have come down, but how much they have to spend to make the family go. That has not
08:30improved in their minds. And and obviously, you know, you know, high, high prices at the gas pump
08:37do not help.
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