00:00What factors, what sort of information flow is influencing a sudden fluctuation in the oil prices?
00:08Is it a headline? Is it a message by President Trump on X? What is it?
00:13First of all, thank you for having me. It's a combination of many different factors.
00:17I think what we are seeing now in terms of the oil prices, you know, first and foremost,
00:21a disconnect between, you know, the futures price, the price we see sort of widely quoted,
00:26that we typically think about when we're talking about the oil price and the actual spot, physical prices,
00:32those are dramatically higher than what we're seeing on the futures curve,
00:35which implies that, you know, the futures are baking in some degree of optimism,
00:39but also on top of that, driven by various headlines, various tweets.
00:45And then, you know, the other layer which exacerbates the volatility is how traders positioning
00:50has had to be curtailed due to volatility and the nature of sort of algorithmic
00:55or systematic trading signals that parse headlines and trade off the back of that.
01:00So that's really amplifying the volatility in the futures market,
01:04making it increasingly difficult to trade, while there's also a disconnect with the physical reality,
01:09the physical spot prices pricing a lot higher than what we're seeing on the futures so far.
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