00:00Goldman Sachs is currently estimating that one month of disruption could send the price of oil
00:06past the all-time record high of 145 US dollars a barrel, but three months could send it up to
00:13sort of the 185 dollars per barrel mark. At those kinds of levels, what would be the
00:20consequences, do you think, for the global economy? I think they would be pretty dramatic.
00:29All over the place, first and foremost for the regions that depend most from Gulf oil, which is Asia, but
00:41also for Europe, who is heavily dependent on oil imports, and also for the US, where, as we have seen
00:51already, the price of gas is rising up.
00:54So, what he tells us, I think, is that this is a matter of time. This is, in a way,
01:03a race against time, with two camps, one that has a military force, and that can stop any day declaring
01:16victory.
01:17Another one who has the capacity to obstruct oil flowing from the Gulf, hence possessing a big leverage on the
01:31global economic situation.
01:33I think this is a matter of time.
01:35I think this is where we are, and I would be surprised, but I may be wrong, but I would
01:41be surprised if this was to drag long enough to reach the sort of oil price which you mentioned.
01:50In turn, I think financial markets would probably fall pretty rapidly, if that was to be the case, and our
02:02experience with Mr. Trump is that the bond vigilantes, the real authority he respects, and especially, as he's heading to
02:13mid-time elections, is financial markets.
02:15I will.
02:16I love you.
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