00:00essentially end consumers consume less so the demand you know from the for people on an everyday
00:08basis is destroyed or reduced and we have definitely seen that from a government imposed
00:15point of view in several ancient countries and what what we've seen as mechanisms employed is
00:21shorter working weeks work from home mandates a few restrictions on general mobility and travel
00:32all in the guise of essentially making the existing oil and oil product inventories last a bit longer
00:41so that the country can ride the situation out until more you know feedstock or fuel
00:49arrive so that's the sort of government imposed way in which demand destruction is taking place now
00:56in a not the same but slightly akin um to what we had during the covet pandemic as well a
01:03high
01:03percentage of energy imports for many asian countries come from the middle east and come by the trade of
01:11formus and the other point of that you know i guess the other side of that coin is the fact
01:18that
01:19because it's such a reliable transit trade route and it happens very regularly
01:26almost seamlessly asian countries or the ones especially in southeast asia have held quite low
01:34oil and refined product inventories as well you know on site simply because that trade can happen
01:42extremely regularly and there's no need from a capital point of view to store a lot of your imported oil
01:50or imported refined products on site again from an accounting point of view this you know maybe not
01:57optimal to have all of that stored so as a result they haven't had a lot of inventories so that
02:03makes
02:03asia in this situation particularly vulnerable
02:12the whole world the whole world of you know tradable goods being affected uh simply because there are
02:18disruptions rate rates are going up and again the critical fuels that you know power daily life and
02:27trade such as oil and gas are have been disrupted in a really significant way so really in terms of
02:36you know what affects us on a day-to-day basis we are looking at you know the cost of
02:41transport the cost of
02:43heating or cooling our homes um the cost of food in groceries um the cost of you know operation for
02:54any
02:54business power generation costs globally as well going up so that affects you know businesses and
03:01bottom lines it potentially could lead to you know job losses down the line and really
03:07teetering on the edge of an economic recession so from the really macro scale to the micro scale from
03:14you know the delivery at your door to the way in which the entire global economy works
03:19this crisis is is touching every single level naturally because of the supply chain disruptions
03:25there is a lag in terms of how quickly things can really get back into into gear into more of
03:33a normal
03:33setting which is why we believe that the conflict were to end today or tomorrow we would really be
03:39looking at a sort of a two-month window for a gradual improvement of flows um thereby realistically
03:46looking at you know the start of the second half of the year or if you want a more normal
03:51world again
03:52in terms of energy flows
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