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00:00Into the final eight, where they'll face Arizona tomorrow night.
00:05Welcome back.
00:05Mike Schoep and the Bulldog here.
00:07Big names lined up for tonight's tournament slate.
00:13And I'm sure a man who is ready for all of it is Sam Paniatovich,
00:20decorated sports betting analyst, Illinois man, Sammy P with us on the
00:25West Her Hotline.
00:27Sam, how's life?
00:28How is this tournament treating you?
00:30So far, so good.
00:31I have an exact, or I guess it'd be a superfecta.
00:35Now I'm going to jinx it.
00:37But I have my final four all making it at 30 to one.
00:41So I'm almost there with Illinois.
00:44And then Duke, Arizona, and Michigan.
00:47Shocker, the one seeds.
00:49But if that's the actual final four, 1-1-1-3, I'll hit 30 to one.
00:54So I'm sweating that big.
00:55I missed the part where you said, and you have the Bills to win the AFC East
00:59as a part of that.
01:00I missed that.
01:01You were breaking up when you were saying that.
01:04Uh-huh.
01:04I know.
01:05By the way, before I forget, I was at Naked City in Vegas last Saturday,
01:09and they wanted to give the boys some love.
01:12They love show up in the Bulldog out there.
01:14Yes, Chris.
01:15That is nice to hear.
01:16I told you this because I saw pictures from you.
01:18I was out there.
01:19The first year I went to Las Vegas to broadcast the night of the opener,
01:23the Thursday night, and to do fantasy drafts, we were set up at Naked City.
01:28And my friend Louie saved us because I could not figure out how to get myself
01:33out of the air.
01:33Yeah, there was an equipment problem.
01:35And literally, like, the open was playing when I think Mike said,
01:39I'm here, I'm here.
01:40I got it.
01:40Yeah, it was really close.
01:41It was really tight.
01:41I'm like, okay, I guess I'm flying solo here.
01:44I picked Illinois in my bracket because of you.
01:47I know there was that one week where you talked about Illinois versus Michigan,
01:51and we lost on that.
01:53But I figured you were still pretty high on them.
01:55So I have Illinois, Iowa State.
01:57Not for big money.
01:59Oh, and the final Iowa State.
02:01I thought you meant you had Illinois, Iowa in that bottom left.
02:03I was like, holy cow, that would have paid a nice penny.
02:07Okay, so Iowa State goes tonight.
02:09I can tell you, I just talked to my buddy in Vegas, John Murray,
02:12who runs the Westgate, one of the big books out there,
02:14and he said the two vets they need to lose tonight, need to lose outright,
02:18are St. John's and Iowa State.
02:22Big public sides today.
02:24I mean, everybody's betting St. John's, which makes sense.
02:27I mean, they've won six in a row.
02:28They've covered all those games, too.
02:30And now you're getting a big number.
02:32I'm using air quotes because you can't see me.
02:34I'm on the radio.
02:35So, wow, that's a lot of points.
02:37But if you followed college basketball the last five years or so,
02:43when you get to the Sweet 16 Elite Eight,
02:46this is where the gap really widens.
02:49Like Arizona last night.
02:51I had a bunch of texts from my buddies.
02:52Wow, that's a lot of points to give Arkansas.
02:55And then Arizona scored 110 points and won by almost 20.
03:00So, I warn people, when you see a big number, psychologically, for some reason,
03:06everybody loves favorites in every sport.
03:08But then in college basketball, Sweet 16 Elite Eight, the public sort of flips and takes points,
03:15especially six, seven, eight, nine points.
03:18And I warn people, these teams that are laying seven, eight, nine points are damn good.
03:23And I think you're going to find that out with Duke and also another one tonight.
03:28I mean, it's not a public side like Iowa State and St. John's,
03:32but there will be a lot of people that will look to take nine and a half, ten with Alabama.
03:37And if they don't make their threes, guys, they're getting blown out by Michigan.
03:41That is interesting.
03:42And isn't it your overall point there about how, for some reason,
03:47this sport or this tournament is where the public turns to the underdogs?
03:51Is that maybe just the way it's marketed that we think about?
03:56And it's for a reason, but we think about upsets when we think about this tournament.
04:01Even, you know, classics in the finals, whether that's Villanova-Georgetown or something more recent.
04:06I wonder if that's really it, that when we think of the tournament and, you know,
04:10when you say public, you're talking about, you know, casuals often.
04:15Maybe we just sort of go right to the dogs.
04:19Well, I mean, yeah, this is a longer-form conversation.
04:23I'll try and keep it as short and sweet as I can.
04:25The dogs are not as big as they used to be in terms of the number.
04:30I remember, you know, going back a decade, a 13 seed would be getting, like, you know, 22 points.
04:37And now the trendy 13 seed is getting, like, 13.
04:40And everybody likes them.
04:42Like Troy, for example, this year.
04:43I mean, everybody bet Troy.
04:45And Troy got dog-walked.
04:47Hawaii was another one.
04:49Oh, watch out for Hawaii.
04:50I mean, Hawaii went down 11-1.
04:52And the game was never close.
04:54I think we only had four double-digit seeds win in the first round.
04:58And then for the first time ever in NCAA tournament history, there was a stretch where the betting favorite won
05:06the game 22 straight times.
05:09I think it was from Thursday night through Friday, the first Friday, where the favorites won every game, all 16.
05:16I mean, imagine being a dog player, especially a dog money line player, and the favorites win 22 straight in
05:22a row.
05:23There were not a lot of upsets this year.
05:25And then, you know, I was doing radio in Chicago, and the host says, well, Texas is a Cinderella.
05:30I'm like, Texas spent the fourth most money in NIL this year.
05:33That is not a Cinderella.
05:35They were just an 11 seed.
05:36That's all.
05:37They just weren't as good as the money should have made them, maybe, right, to some extent or another.
05:42Is this overall, I mean, I know, you know, you're happy, your Final Four is alive.
05:47Is it good for the tournament?
05:49Does it even matter anymore because the gambling is so, you know, you can do it from your phone now.
05:54Like, the tournament probably gets as much action, if not more action, than it's ever gotten, even if it's not
06:00as interesting to the casuals because the, you know, 22 favorites in a row won.
06:06It's interesting.
06:07I mean, you're going to get the best matchups.
06:10I mean, these games tonight are crazy good.
06:12St. John's, Duke, Michigan State, UConn, Alabama, Michigan, Tennessee, Iowa State.
06:17I mean, those are four really, really good games with eight really, really good programs.
06:22And, you know, I see a lot of this, you know, in the streets, on the Internet, like, especially last
06:27weekend.
06:27Oh, college basketball is dead.
06:29I'm like, not really.
06:32You got the best team standing.
06:35So, I've always wanted the best teams.
06:36I mean, it's a fun story when Loyola goes to the Final Four or when George Mason breaks it through.
06:42But, in the modern day, you just, you don't expect that anymore.
06:47I mean, last year we had four number one seeds in the Final Four.
06:50And the Final Four was awesome.
06:52I mean, it was one of the best I remember.
06:55Usually, when that Cinderella makes it to the Elite Eight or Final Four, they get cracked over the head with
06:59a crowbar.
07:00So, do you want to watch two games that are close?
07:05Or do you want to watch one game that's close and another team lose by 30?
07:08I'm in the first camp always.
07:10With Sam Peniotovic, Chicken Dinner.
07:13Mike Schopen, the Bulldog here, WGR.
07:15Do you have an ear open with all this tournament noise to the Jack Adams Award race?
07:21Lindy Ruff, minus 300, Mike.
07:25That's maybe the best it's been.
07:28Uh-huh.
07:29You know, we hear or hear about different hockey analysts talking about this, Ruff and John Cooper.
07:37And a couple of nights ago, it was a TNT broadcast.
07:39Yeah, Wednesday night.
07:40Yeah, the TNT, like, intermission, you know, post-game panel there.
07:44Um, everyone said John Cooper and their reasoning.
07:48There's four different, or three analysts all said John Cooper.
07:52And their reasoning was, I just can't believe he hasn't won it yet.
07:56Which, you know, I think is fine if Lindy Ruff and the Sabres aren't having the year that they're having.
08:01But, it's one of the best stories in hockey this season, if not the best story in hockey this season,
08:07that the Sabres have gotten this hot and climbed this far.
08:10They're not just fighting to get in the playoffs.
08:12They're fighting for, like, the top seed in the conference.
08:14It's crazy.
08:16And I just think, you know, if that coach exists out there,
08:21then the career achievement guy, you know, should not get the benefit of the doubt in a year like that,
08:29I don't think.
08:29And maybe he won't, but broadcasters vote on that award, Sam, and those guys are broadcasters.
08:36That's fair.
08:37I also, not to cross sports here, but when I hear that everybody on TV likes Sean Cooper,
08:43I think about myself sitting down on Sunday night when I watch the pregame on NBC
08:48and the Ravens are playing the Steelers and all nine people pick the Ravens.
08:52And I'm like, oh, I like the Steelers.
08:53You know, like, I feel the same way.
08:57Like, okay, because the betting market disagrees.
08:59The betting market has gotten more expensive on Lindy Ruff,
09:03who I believe a week ago was even money or plus 110, and now he's minus 300.
09:10So you've got to lay three to win one.
09:11I guess let me ask you two a question.
09:13Since we have the Lindy bet, the three of us together,
09:16should we bet a little John Cooper plus 240?
09:19That's really the question, yes or no?
09:21I mean, if my heart weren't where it was, I would do it, probably hedge a little bit,
09:27but it's also not that big a bet that I'm really worried about it.
09:31You know, I'm not a hedger usually.
09:32I don't, I like to just ride or die with what I decided to do,
09:36which I know, you know, it can cost me money, but I still, whatever.
09:40I like to just stay the course.
09:41I like your Ravens comparison.
09:43It would be perfect if those nine NBC panelists voted at the end of the game
09:48who would win instead of there being a scoreboard.
09:53But, you know, point taken on that, and I'm very much the same way.
09:58Sabres for Cup, anybody?
10:01That's more than a thousand, right?
10:02Just keep asking.
10:03I think I said last Friday, this is the last time to get in.
10:06So, no, I don't want you to bet.
10:08I mean, if you're a Buffalonian and you're still naked on Buffalo,
10:12if you want to bet a little bit, fine.
10:14But, again, you're, the train is leaving,
10:17and you are trying to jump on and grab the railing from a price standpoint.
10:21I mean, you know, this is a team that two months ago was 50-1, 40-1.
10:27So, if you want to bet 16 or 14 or 12, fine.
10:32But you're getting pennies on the dollar in that sense.
10:35I did, you know, as I always do, I listened to the first segment.
10:39Thank you for the White Sox crack, number one.
10:41Sure.
10:42Number two, number two.
10:44Well, they went up 1-0, and then they were down 14-1.
10:46I'm like, oh, boy, here we go.
10:48Everybody makes a run, Sam.
10:50I did hear that we might like the draw tonight between the Sabres and the Wings, huh?
10:56Well, just to get a point, because we sort of like, we're playing chess here, not checkers.
11:02I think we agree that we'd like Detroit in the playoff pool.
11:05I think they're the weakest of the contending teams for, you know, playoff spots.
11:11So, I'd rather have them in than, say, Ottawa or Columbus or the Islanders even.
11:16So, let them get a point, and I'll maybe take my chances in overtime.
11:21I perked up, and then, naturally, I went price shopping.
11:24So, this is a conversation that everybody needs to have, especially during baseball season, like the importance of price.
11:30I have three sports books up right here.
11:32FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM.
11:34If you want to bet the regulations high, FanDuel gives you plus 290, DraftKings gives you plus 320, BetMGM gives
11:43you plus 333.
11:44You can get 43 extra cents just by betting on the right book.
11:50And, you know, a lot of people only have one book.
11:51Well, one book has 290, the other one has 333, or 333, as my friend Eddie Olchek always says.
11:58There's got to be a promo code out there.
12:01We can glom onto this.
12:02Right.
12:04I have a White Sox playoff bet.
12:08Uh-huh.
12:10I mean, I know their total was down around 70, right?
12:1370 and a half, something like that, maybe lower.
12:16But, I don't know.
12:18Give me to 85 and see what happens.
12:21I don't know that they're going to make the playoffs.
12:24You know, I think they can get to 70 wins.
12:26The one team that a lot of wise guys like, and, of course, you know, it's not 1995 anymore.
12:31You can bet on playoff markets throughout the season.
12:34Like, you used to be able to just bet it before opening day, and then they shut the blinds.
12:38The one team I'm hearing a lot about from Vegas is the Miami Marlins.
12:43They took some bets at 7-1 and plus 650 to make the postseason.
12:48Very young team, but their manager, McCulloch, he took them from 62 wins two years ago to 79 last year,
12:56and they got better in the offseason.
12:58So, if you're looking for some pizza money, if you want to bet a little to win a lot, I'm
13:02hearing the Miami Marlins are getting a lot of playoff bets in Vegas.
13:06I heard Texas.
13:07Did you hear Texas, too?
13:10Yeah, Texas, that kind of happens every year with them, at least since they've started spending all that money, since
13:16they won the World Series.
13:17Yeah, I mean, Texas is, they're like, the win total is like 82 and a half, so you're not going
13:22to get as big of a payout on them to make it.
13:26But I've heard some people that like big picture, like Texas to make the World Series.
13:30So, to your point, that's another very popular one in the market, for sure.
13:34Thank you, Sam.
13:35Good luck tonight and this weekend.
13:37Anything with the podcast you want to mention?
13:41No, the podcast will be back next week.
13:43I'm betting Michigan tonight, and I will be thinking of you guys when the sabers and wings are tied 2
13:50-2 after 3.
13:51All right, we'll take it.
13:52Good deal, Sam.
13:53Right back at you.
13:54Thanks, Sam.
13:55Bye-bye.
13:56Sam Paniotovic, Chicken Dinner.
13:58Find that on YouTube.
14:00And wherever you get your podcasts.
14:03I wanted to say that.
14:04That's how they say it.
14:05Everybody says that.
14:05I never say that.
14:06Yeah.
14:06Yeah.
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