00:00Israel continues its offensive in Lebanon, with an airstrike targeting Hezbollah's stronghold in southern Beirut early this Friday.
00:07Meanwhile, Israeli ground troops continue to push through southern Lebanon,
00:11where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they are expanding a controlled buffer zone,
00:16stoking fears of a prolonged Israeli occupation.
00:20Lebanon said on Thursday that they plan to file a complaint to the UN Security Council over the offensive,
00:25which has killed over 1,000 and displaced one in five Lebanese people.
00:30Selena Sykes brings us some of the latest.
00:33In this footage released by the Israel Defense Forces,
00:37airstrikes hit an alleged Hezbollah command center and a weapons depot in southern Lebanon.
00:43Since Israel intensified its offensive against the Iran-backed group,
00:47the destruction on the ground has been devastating.
00:50The streets of Nabatea have been reduced to rubble.
00:53The city, usually home to around 40,000 people, is virtually deserted.
00:58Ali is one of only a few residents to have ignored Israel's evacuation orders.
01:05Several generations were born into war, and we will continue in war.
01:09This is our land, and we will remain here.
01:13On top of airstrikes, Israel has moved several thousand soldiers into southern Lebanon in recent weeks,
01:19in what it says is a defensive move to protect its northern border communities.
01:24Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel will expand a buffer zone in the south,
01:30sparking fears that Israel is preparing for a large-scale ground invasion in Lebanon.
01:35The UN has expressed their alarm over the deteriorating humanitarian crisis,
01:40with more than a thousand people killed and more than a million displaced since the war began at the beginning
01:46of March.
01:47Hezbollah must stop launching attacks into Israel,
01:50and Israel must stop its military operations and strikes in Lebanon,
01:55which are hitting civilians the hardest.
01:58On Wednesday, Hezbollah's leader Naim Kassem said any negotiations with Israel,
02:03while under bombardment, would amount to surrender.
02:07Tehran, for its part, reportedly wants Lebanon to be included in any cease-fire deal brokered with the U.S.,
02:13and has demanded that Israel stops its offensive against Hezbollah.
02:18Well, for some analysis, we can bring in Filippo Dionigi,
02:22a senior lecturer of politics and international relations at the University of Bristol.
02:26Good morning, and thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us today.
02:31Morning.
02:32Perhaps you could just start by giving us your reactions to the latest developments in Lebanon,
02:36notably Israel's expansion of that buffer zone in the south.
02:41Yeah, I think what we're witnessing is what we were expecting was going to happen,
02:46that is, Israel basically expanding its occupation of Lebanese ground,
02:52its explanation being that their part of the territory will serve them the possibility
02:58to establish what they call a safe zone,
03:01so a buffering area that should protect, in theory,
03:04the north of Israel from further attack from Hezbollah.
03:07In reality, we know that historically, that process doesn't go exactly that way.
03:14Israel has been trying to establish that buffer zone since 1982, at least,
03:20up until 2000, when it unilaterally withdrew from that part of the territory.
03:24And then now it's trying again to try to obtain the same outcome.
03:30In reality, what happens is that through Israeli attacks over Lebanon,
03:36the role of Hezbollah and its legitimacy needs to be reinforced,
03:40because Israel, you know, it becomes a digressive force that then requires resistance
03:46and therefore justifies the presence of Hezbollah,
03:49at least according to Hezbollah's rhetoric.
03:51So you're saying that in the end, this war is going to reinforce Hezbollah
03:56and make them stronger than they were going into it?
03:59Well, at least rhetorically, at least for what is their narrative
04:03and the sense of legitimacy that they can mobilize among their own people,
04:07especially among the Shia community that they claim to represent,
04:11that could be an argument that can try to make.
04:14Even though at the beginning, their popularity seemed to be in a phase of serious decline
04:20due to the fact that they basically dragged Lebanon into another war
04:23by taking revenge for the killing of Khamenei
04:28and therefore causing the reaction of Israel that we're witnessing nowadays.
04:33Now, at this point, if the war continues
04:36and the Lebanese government faces this dilemma of, on one hand,
04:40trying to disarm Hezbollah,
04:42but on the other hand, also has to deal with the fact
04:44that Israel is fundamentally delegitimizing its existence
04:47and its role in this process.
04:49Therefore, at that point, Hezbollah will have,
04:52will benefit in terms of public legitimacy in front of its own community.
04:57Exactly because if the occupation continues from Israel,
05:02they will be able to claim a role in that process
05:05as defenders of the interest of the Lebanese Shia community,
05:09at least in the south.
05:10And that will be counterproductive.
05:13Let's talk about the Lebanese government's dilemma.
05:15They have been taking steps to distance themselves from Tehran and to reign in Hezbollah.
05:20Most recently, they expelled Iran's ambassador.
05:22They're calling for him to leave the country by Sunday.
05:24But has the Lebanese government really been following through on any of its threats?
05:30Well, this has been a process that has been going on at least since the beginning of the ceasefire of
05:37November 2024,
05:38when the Lebanese governor has been tasked with disarm Hezbollah.
05:42That process was proceeding to some extent.
05:45And within, you know, the capacity that Lebanese armed forces actually had to implement that process.
05:51It's a complex process because, first of all, the capacity of the Lebanese armed forces to proceed in the disarmament
06:02of Hezbollah was limited to,
06:03by its very military capacity to operate against a force that is potentially stronger than the Lebanese armed forces themselves.
06:13And secondly, there is also the risk that this process, by being overly abrupt and overly polarizing for society,
06:22may produce the condition for civil unrest within the country.
06:27They have tried to implement that process further.
06:29And with the resumption of hostilities after the 1st of March in the past few weeks,
06:35the Lebanese government has tried to capitalize on what appeared at least at the beginning as a decline in Hezbollah's
06:42popularity.
06:43And pushed forward towards establishing a channel for negotiations with Israel for a possible normalization of relations,
06:52or at least achieving a ceasefire, an attempt that Israel has anyway refused so far.
06:58And then at the same time, they also have asked Iran to remove its assets from Lebanon.
07:08Apparently, there were IRGC troops dislocated in Lebanon, basically trying to support Hezbollah's operation.
07:17And the latest development, as you were saying, is the declaration of Iran's ambassador, Persona Non Grata, in Lebanon.
07:24We will see whether that is going to be actually implemented.
07:27We know that there is not a full agreement within the government, but also the chair of the parliament, Nabi
07:34Birri,
07:37has announced that he's not in agreement with this decision.
07:40So we will see where this is going exactly.
07:43But the risk is that too much pressure and too much polarization within the domestic ground may actually cause further
07:50disruption.
07:52As you mentioned, the Lebanese government has been trying to engage Israel in direct talks.
07:57Just very briefly, you know, what might those negotiations look like?
08:01What might a deal look like?
08:03And do you think that that could actually happen?
08:06I think the first step is to end the hostilities as soon as possible.
08:13Lebanon and the Lebanese government have been clear that they will be available for direct talks,
08:19the moment in which Israel agrees to end the hostilities and begin to withdraw from Lebanese territory.
08:25That would be the first step.
08:27Then those stops will be a very complicated matter.
08:31Lebanese-Israeli relations have been characterized by constant war since 1948, basically.
08:38And the process will be complex.
08:42There will be a lot on the table to negotiate.
08:44There will be the enormous amount of devastation that Israel has caused to Lebanon.
08:49There will be the presence of a significant Palestinian population within Lebanon
08:55that possibly will become part of negotiations discussing their right to return to Palestine, for example.
09:02There will be, obviously, the disarmament of Hezbollah will be a crucial aspect there, too.
09:06So there will be a lot of different items on the agenda for discussion.
09:10But, again, it's way too early to make any prediction in that respect.
09:15And, first and foremost, also, remember, historically, this is not the first time that Lebanon engages in direct negotiations with
09:23Israel for a peace agreement.
09:26The same happened also during the first occupation of Lebanon in 1982, 1983, and the siege of Beirut in those
09:36years.
09:36And that caused a very sharp division between the Lebanese society and Lebanese political groups,
09:44part of them being against, adamantly against, any normalization with Israel,
09:49and others instead trying to normalize relations with Israel.
09:53And that division eventually has had the effect of further and even further the civil war that was taken place
09:59at that point in the history of Lebanon.
10:02All right, Filippo Dionigi, thank you again so much for bringing us your analysis this morning.
10:06That was Filippo Dionigi, a senior lecturer of politics and international relations at the University of Bristol.
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