- 13 hours ago
In an exclusive interview with India Today's Consulting Editor Rajdeep Sardesai, Colonel Douglas MacGregor, former senior advisor to the Secretary of Defense under President Trump, said that Iran is in driver's seat while Trump faces humiliation in the ongoing West Asia war.
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00:00What will Donald Trump do next? What are Donald Trump's war options now?
00:04When can Donald Trump really claim victory, if at all?
00:07Has Donald Trump lost control of the war and the war narrative?
00:11And what does he do next?
00:13Joining me now is Colonel Douglas MacGregor,
00:16former senior advisor to the Secretary of Defense under President Trump.
00:20And Colonel MacGregor, you were with us a couple of weeks ago.
00:23You really stirred it up, but in a way you've been proved prophetic.
00:26You warned that Donald Trump was getting into a war that he didn't quite have a strategy for.
00:31Two weeks later, can you tell us what you believe happens next?
00:36Because there are all kinds of reports suggesting there could be a ground offensive,
00:40especially on the Karg Island, which I will put on the screen in a moment,
00:43why Karg matters. But do you see that happening now?
00:47Well, let me answer that question.
00:49But before I do, I'd like to clarify something that has been publicized over the last few days.
00:57My words were taken out of context in an interview that was conducted here in the United States,
01:02and I was accused of suggesting that India effectively had joined the war
01:06and had opened its port facilities to the U.S. Navy for warfighting purposes.
01:11That, of course, is a lie.
01:13What I was referring to at the time was this agreement from 2016 called the Lamori Agreement,
01:19which allows U.S. ships from the U.S. Navy to pull into Indian ports to make repairs, to resupply.
01:28You know, people at sea have to eat. People at sea need fuel and so forth.
01:33So we were talking at the time about the very high probability, given all the ports closed to us,
01:40that we would go to Indian ports.
01:43But that had nothing to do with the war, and under no circumstances was I suggesting that India had a
01:49role in this war.
01:50So I just want to make that clear because I admire India's position.
01:55Now, having said all of that, you're asking the right question.
01:58We have this so-called ceasefire, which, of course, is ignored, as you pointed out, by the Israelis completely.
02:04But we have effectively unilaterally said we were going to take a break for five days.
02:09And that's exactly what this has been.
02:11It's been a break for us for the purposes of preparing for future offensive operations.
02:16What we see happening right now is a buildup, massive buildup of air power and weapons for air power and
02:23missiles designed to launch a punishing strike that President Trump and his inner circle hopes will end the war by
02:32effectively causing the disintegration of the Iranian state.
02:36All of this is designed to happen in preparation for the use of the light infantry for the Marines and
02:42the Army to seize islands in the Persian Gulf.
02:46Karg, you mentioned, and, of course, that's a very important oil terminal for Iran.
02:50But the notion that if that is destroyed or it's occupied, that this somehow or another puts Iran out of
02:56the oil business is ridiculous.
02:58They have other ways to move oil.
02:59There are other islands closer to the strait itself they think they could seize that would have some impact on
03:06the strait.
03:06The truth is the straits are closed right now, as you pointed out, not because of anything the Iranians did,
03:13per se,
03:13but because Lloyd's of London refuses to ensure ships moving through the straits.
03:19So a stroke of the pen by Lloyd's of London is really what closed the straits.
03:24But now the Iranians, of course, have the advantage of precision strike and persistent surveillance.
03:29So we can't surprise them in any way, shape or form.
03:32If we try to use ground forces, they will be picked up early and they will be subjected to precision
03:38strike.
03:39So are you saying that taking over Karg Island, which is one of the options on the table, is laden
03:47with huge risks?
03:48There are also reports of smaller islands, which may be then taken as leverage to somehow or the other secure
03:57an entry point into the strait of Hormuz.
03:59Do you believe that that's what Donald Trump now wants?
04:02Is that why he's bought time, in your view, over the last five days?
04:06That's part of it.
04:07It's not the whole thing.
04:08As I said, the larger issue is how much, how many missiles, how many bombs, how many explosives can be
04:15dropped on Iran in the meantime to defeat Iran?
04:19In other words, not only to silence its weapons and defeat its weapons, but also to punish its population and
04:25its cities.
04:25You know, we are carpet bombing cities in Iran right now, something we haven't really done since Vietnam.
04:31And prior to that, we did it during the Second World War.
04:34But the other issue is, of course, the use of these small light infantry forces and seizing an island in
04:41this day and age, given the enormous importance of precision strike and persistent surveillance, is suicidal.
04:47Whatever you put on the island can be destroyed from a distance.
04:50The weapons that can sink ships, destroy islands, and effectively make it impossible to control the straits, can be 150
04:58kilometers away from the location where you're striking.
05:02That's the problem.
05:03So this is World War II thinking at its worst.
05:06And it's not an answer, and it won't work.
05:10The fact, though, is you're saying that if the U.S. troops were to even consider a ground operation, they
05:18would be vulnerable to precision strikes at the moment.
05:22The Iranians, in that sense, have prepared for this moment.
05:26Am I correct?
05:27Absolutely.
05:28They are very well prepared for it.
05:30And I don't see any upside to this operation.
05:35Light infantry is very vulnerable.
05:37It has to be protected.
05:39We can't protect the people that go onto those islands.
05:42We're short on missiles, increasingly, as the Israelis are, to protect ourselves.
05:47The whole thing is ridiculous.
05:49But I think this appeals to President Trump.
05:52And as I said again, it's World War II thinking.
05:55Iran is the 21st century form of warfare.
05:59Missiles, unmanned systems, manned systems, whatever it is, linked to overhead space-based surveillance that is constant and uninterrupted.
06:08That is a very lethal combination.
06:11And the Iranians are proving that they don't need a navy.
06:14They don't need an army.
06:15They don't need an air force.
06:16What they need is what they've got, which is this ISR strike capability that can protect them.
06:22So are you saying that as of today, Iran actually has a slight upper hand?
06:29Yes, strategically, I think Iran is in the driver's seat.
06:32And the only hope left for President Trump, who faces very real probability of humiliation at home and humiliation around
06:41the world,
06:42is that he can throw enough conventional explosives and firepower against the Iranian state and its population to bring it
06:51to its knees.
06:52Now, again, we did that to the Germans.
06:55It did not work.
06:56We did it to the Japanese, and it did not work.
06:58It took the nuclear option to change the condition in Iran, excuse me, in Japan.
07:05So I think this is not going to produce what President Trump wants, which he wants to be able to
07:10stand there and accept the surrender of the Iranian nation to him.
07:15I don't see that happening.
07:17So what are the realistic options?
07:18There's so much of talk of a negotiated settlement, a 15-point plan that effectively disables Iran's nuclear arsenal, which
07:26Iran has rejected.
07:27Do you believe that that plan is on the table, in your view?
07:32Or do you believe the fact that so many Marines are being sent in, the additional troops pouring into West
07:39Asia, suggests that Donald Trump is preparing for some kind of a kinetic strike on Iran and hoping then for
07:46the best?
07:47Well, I think you're right.
07:48He's hoping for the best, but he's not going to get it.
07:52What makes you so sure, if I may stop you, Colonel McGregor, what makes you so sure that with the
07:59entire Iran, with the Israelis on their side, the Americans with all their air power,
08:05the fact that they claim they've decimated 90% of Iranian navy, they cannot now bring the regime to its
08:14knees?
08:15Well, remember, you're listening to claims made for strikes that we can't confirm.
08:21You're hearing people say, well, we've destroyed 90% of this and 80% of that.
08:25We don't have any evidence for those things.
08:28Those are simply claims being made in public.
08:31And the president talks about a navy.
08:33I just told you, what use is a navy today?
08:36Anything that floats on the surface can be targeted and destroyed quickly.
08:41So Iran doesn't need those things.
08:43We're trying to measure our so-called success on the basis of the way we've done business for 50, 60,
08:5070 years.
08:52That's over.
08:52That way of war is at an end.
08:55What's happening now is a very different kind of war.
08:58And again, you're talking about a little state, Israel, the size of Manipur, that is waging war on a country
09:04half the size of India.
09:06They've dragged us into this thing, and we have willingly participated in an effort to destroy Iran,
09:12which presents no imminent threat whatsoever to the United States.
09:16And there's very little support in the United States for this, and President Trump knows it.
09:20So he's got to find a way to bring this to an end that conveys the impression that he's been
09:26successful and victorious.
09:27I don't think he's going to be able to do that.
09:30But the fact is, every day, either a top Iranian commander or someone from their political leadership has been taken
09:38out or killed,
09:39assassinated, use the word you want today, it's a naval rear admiral.
09:44There's a question of morale.
09:45There's a question of leadership.
09:46Do you believe that the U.S. attacks, the Israeli attacks, pinpointed on some of these senior officials have demoralized
09:57in any way?
09:58Have you seen any signs in the last few days of a demoralized Iran?
10:02Well, this is a nation of 93 million people.
10:05They don't seem to have any trouble finding successors for the people who've been killed.
10:09In fact, I would argue that what you've probably done by killing off the top leadership is bring up younger,
10:16more open-minded, innovative military men and women
10:21who can actually do things differently and more innovatively.
10:24We had this experience before World War II.
10:28Stalin destroyed tens of thousands of officers in the Soviet Army.
10:32And the Germans thought that this was debilitating.
10:35They suddenly discovered that they had a new generation of officers in command of Soviet troops that were better than
10:40the ones that had been killed.
10:42So I don't see this as evidence for some sort of failure.
10:46On the contrary, I think it has stiffened people's spines.
10:51They're more determined than ever.
10:52The bad news for the rest of us, as you know, when it comes to fuel, feed, fertilizer, the world's
11:00in big trouble.
11:01Australia's in big trouble.
11:02England has got two weeks of oil supply left.
11:05I think the Iranians know that.
11:07And so the Iranians are saying to themselves, we have to withstand this next assault.
11:11We have to do what we can to defend ourselves.
11:13But ultimately, the global economy is working for us.
11:17So this is, in one way, economic warfare in this 21st century war, as you're calling it,
11:23where drones and missiles, in a way, can cause far more damage than all these sophisticated defense systems that the
11:29United States possesses.
11:31Yes.
11:32And eight out of ten missiles, for instance, that have been launched against Israel are getting through.
11:37Why?
11:38Because they do not have enough missiles to fire back in response to try and knock down the missiles headed
11:44in their direction.
11:44We have a similar problem with the fleet.
11:47And remember, we're sitting out there.
11:50We've got thousands of sailors sitting on board these ships for months at a time.
11:54That's not a pleasant experience.
11:56It's not good duty.
11:58We've got pilots that have been flying and flying and flying.
12:00They're exhausted.
12:01They're tired.
12:02The Iranians are a great continental power, just like India.
12:06Iran can absorb a lot of strikes, and that's what they're doing.
12:09But they can also hit back.
12:11So this is the last gasp, if you will, for President Trump.
12:15He's got to go in there and effectively obliterate as much of Iran as possible and hope that this compels
12:21them to surrender.
12:22So what you're saying is in the next one week, they've got to go in there, in your view, launch
12:29this massive attack.
12:31If Iran withstands it, then the economic pressures will be such that America will find it difficult to sustain that
12:40kind of assault.
12:41And you feel that taking over Karg Island or reopening Strait of Hormuz is not going to be easy for
12:49the Americans at the moment.
12:50Am I correct?
12:51Oh, I think it's enormously difficult.
12:53I don't see the approach that they want to use as being workable.
12:57This is not going to work any more than the 1915 attempt by the British to seize the Dardanelles and
13:04force the Royal Navy through the Dardanelles straight to Constantinople.
13:10It didn't work.
13:12And that involved eventually 500,000 British troops, and the Turks absolutely defeated them and drove them away.
13:19I don't see 10,000 light infantrymen landing on little islands in the Persian Gulf as changing anything strategically.
13:27Just one more point, which I saw you make in one of your interviews, Colonel McGregor, was on Pakistan.
13:33Does that reveal the very fact that Pakistan is being put forward almost as a negotiator?
13:39Does that reveal U.S. desperation in a way?
13:44Perhaps.
13:45You know, Pakistan obviously offered.
13:47You know my view has been from the beginning that Pakistan doesn't have the credibility it needs in the international
13:54system.
13:54The Israelis are not going to take anything that the Pakistanis do or anything that's done in Pakistan as a
14:01serious solution,
14:02which is why I felt strongly that these negotiations, if they happen at all, should happen in New Delhi.
14:08But we have to understand something.
14:10There have been no negotiations going on thus far.
14:13No one has figured out what President Trump is talking about.
14:16So, we think this is all a facade.
14:19We are quite convinced that we are going to see a massive offensive after this five-day ceasefire is over,
14:25which was always fiction to begin with.
14:28So, you are saying a massive offensive likely within the next 48 to 72 hours, almost a final assault?
14:35Well, I wouldn't go that far.
14:36I would simply say that after the ceasefire has ended at some point,
14:40let's say within the next four or five days, this massive air offensive will begin.
14:46And I expect that during this air offensive, there will be an attempt to seize these islands.
14:53Colonel McGregor, as always, you've been very direct, very pointed,
14:58and good to have you on the show and give us a perspective that cuts through some of the noise.
15:03Thank you very much for joining me here at the moment here on the news today.
15:08Appreciate your time.
15:09Thank you very much.
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