00:11There seems to be little progress this Thursday towards a ceasefire between Iran, the United
00:17States and Israel. Mixed messages from Washington with Donald Trump calling on Tehran to act
00:23before it's too late. At the same time, the United States is sending thousands of troops
00:28to the Middle East. Now, Iran has put forward its own ceasefire proposal while continuing
00:34to fire missiles towards the Gulf and towards Israel. Israel, meanwhile, has carried out
00:41a wave of attacks this morning targeting Iranian infrastructure. Heavy strikes were reported
00:47in particular around the city of Isfahan. And Israel's defence minister today says the head
00:53of the Iranian Navy has been killed.
00:58The IDF eliminated overnight in a precise and lethal operation the commander of the IRGC
01:05Navy Tangsiri alongside with seniors from the Navy command. The person directly responsible
01:11for the terror operation of mining and blocking the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic was
01:16bombed and eliminated. This is a clear message for all seniors of the IRGC terrorist organisation,
01:23which controls Iran today. The IDF will hunt you down and eliminate you one by one.
01:29And it is worth saying, for the moment, Iran has not commented on that Israeli claim that
01:34the head of the Navy has been killed. Now, in our next report, my colleague Delano D'Souza
01:40takes a look for us at the latest attacks in the region and the diplomatic efforts as well,
01:45which are being led by Pakistan.
01:50A statement from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing the launch of over 80 missile
01:55and drone strikes towards Israel and US allies in the region. The Islamic Republic's retaliation
02:02continues as Donald Trump insists authorities in the country are desperate for a deal.
02:07And they are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a deal so badly, but they're afraid
02:11to say it. The US president, confident of an agreement after Washington outlined a 15-point
02:18ceasefire proposal, which includes Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, among other hardline positions
02:24authorities are unlikely to accept. Tehran fired back with a five-point counterproposal of its own.
02:31They include an end to the ongoing campaign, war reparations, and mechanisms to ensure the
02:37conflict can't reignite again. For now, Iran continues to deny negotiations with the US,
02:43but admits back channels are working. Messages being conveyed through friendly countries and
02:50us responding by stating our positions or issuing the necessary warnings is not called negotiation or
02:56dialogue. It is simply an exchange of messages through our friends. On Monday, Donald Trump
03:02appeared to backtrack when he announced a five-day pause to his threat to target Iran's power
03:07infrastructure over Tehran's refusal to loosen its grip over the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic
03:12Republic had vowed it wouldn't sit idly by if that were to happen. Trump's latest pause is due to expire
03:19Friday, when thousands of US Marines are expected in the region.
03:23President Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before. President
03:29Trump does not bluff, and he is prepared to unleash hell. Iran should not miscalculate again.
03:35As Donald Trump oscillates between an off-ramp and an escalation in the conflict,
03:39the US president is reportedly mulling an American takeover of Iran's Karg Island,
03:45a move Tehran says won't just paralyze shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, but throughout the Gulf.
03:55Well, as I mentioned earlier on, heavy strikes on the Iranian city of Isfahan have been reported
04:01today. In Israel, sirens sounded early this morning in parts of Tel Aviv, and explosions later
04:07on were heard in Jerusalem.
04:13Well, I'm pleased now to welcome to the program, Danny Citronowitz. He's a senior researcher at
04:19Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, and he joins us from Tel Aviv. Hello to you,
04:25and thank you for speaking to France 24. Thank you for inviting me.
04:30Look, it seems that the US president is now looking for some kind of off-ramp to get out
04:37of this war, pushing Iran to negotiate. I presume Israel is not looking for that right now.
04:47Well, we are getting close to a decision point in this war, and I think President Trump will have
04:52to decide whether to try to reach an agreement with the Iranian regime. It's not going to be easy
04:59because they are radicalized, because there is a decentralized regime right now. It's very hard
05:04to come to one unified voice. On the other hand, it can choose to expand the war, whether to use
05:12infantry, the Marines, and conquer Haag Island, or the islands in the entrance of the Hormuz Straits,
05:18or to attack the civilian infrastructure in Iran. So he has to make a decision. He can, of course,
05:24postpone the ultimatum, but I think the chances now for which an agreement are quite slim.
05:29Regarding Israel, I don't think in Israel people think that the gaps right now are allowing an
05:34agreement, but I think Israel is afraid that President Trump is trying to look for an off-ramp,
05:39even offering some sort of compromises to the regime, to the Islamic regime, in order to stop
05:44the war. So I think Israel is trying to do as much as it can to express to President Trump
05:49this is the
05:50time to expand the war and to hit hard on the regime, other than just stopping now in the middle
05:56of the war. Okay, so Israel, in your analysis, would like this to continue in some form, but I want
06:02to
06:03ask you about some reporting today from Reuters, from the news agency, which says,
06:09according to its sources, that Israel has now removed the Iranian foreign minister,
06:14Abbas Arachi, as well as the speaker of the Iranian parliament, from its kill list. This,
06:19according to the reporting, is at the request of the United States and of Pakistan. Do you think
06:25that that's true, first of all, that Israel is taking people off its list of those it's trying to kill?
06:34Well, I don't know if that's true, but definitely, if President Trump wants to reach an agreement,
06:39Israel cannot be seen as someone that's eventually trying to prevent that from happening.
06:45So I think that, again, I don't know if it's true or not, but generally, we have to assume that.
06:50The thing is, regarding where we stand right now, that everybody is waiting for President Trump's
06:55decision, because at the end of the day, if President Trump will decide to stop, Israel will
07:00stop. If we decide to continue, Israel will continue. So I think it's all depending on what
07:05will happen in Washington. As mentioned before, I think that Israel is hoping to continue the attack,
07:10making sure that you can actually degrade the Iranian capabilities militarily,
07:14but also from a civilian side, hence preventing Iran from being a threat to the state of Israel.
07:19But again, it's all depending on President Trump. We don't know what he's trying to do.
07:23Definitely trying to look for the option of reaching a diplomatical solution.
07:28But at the end of the day, as mentioned, it will be very hard to reach an agreement right now,
07:33because of the fact that, because of the radicalized regime in Iran, and even more than
07:37that, the sense in Tehran that actually they're winning and not losing. So reaching an agreement
07:42with them based on those 15 points that the regime, the administration actually sent to the
07:46regime, it will be very hard to do so. And tell me a bit more about that, why it is
07:50that you
07:50think that Iran has a sense, at this moment, that it has the upper hand in the war, even
07:56though, of course, Israel and the United States are far greater military powers.
08:04Paradoxically, in Tehran, I think they assume that the worst is behind them.
08:09The U.S. and Israel killed Khamenei, the key Syria leaders in the regime itself, and the
08:15regime actually was able to overcome them. Even more than that, they're utilizing their
08:19asymmetric capabilities, meaning that they're using the missiles, the drones, to increase
08:25the attacks on the Gulf states, on Israel, and thus creating some sort of deterrence balance
08:30between us and them. Even more than that, of course, they have now discovered the issue
08:37regarding Homo Straits. So for them, they're actually controlling the bottleneck of the
08:43international economy. So all of that makes Iran understand that despite the aggressive
08:48attacks by the U.S. and Israel, that definitely, it's overwhelming in terms of the sheer power
08:53that Israel and the U.S. have, at the end of the day, the regime is able to overcome it.
08:58It's not under threat right now from people going to the streets, trying to destabilize
09:04the situation. So for them, they're actually feeling that Trump wants to stop the war and
09:09wants to come back to them. This is why they have, it's not that they're going to accept
09:15the Trump offer. They actually have their own demands. First and foremost, getting guarantees
09:20to the fact that nobody will attack them in the future and having compensation for the
09:24loss that they have during the war on top of their controlling Homo Straits. So the gaps
09:29between not only the position, but also the expectation gap from negotiation between the
09:34U.S. and Iran are so big that, again, it will be very hard to reach an agreement, definitely
09:38with the next 24 hours until the President Trump ultimatum actually will expire.
09:43Look, and when that ultimatum expires, assuming that no deal is reached, as you say, it seems
09:49rather unlikely at the moment. What do you think happens next? We've been reporting this
09:54American buildup of troops in the Middle East. Are they going to act militarily on Iran, do
10:01you think?
10:03Definitely it's an option. I think that if President Trump thinks that the Iranians will capitulate,
10:08I think he has it all wrong. If you think that Iran is Venezuela and Mohammed Bakker Walibaf,
10:13the Speaker of the Majesty, is like the Delcio Rodrigo of Venezuela, he's wrong. At the end
10:17of the day, as I mentioned, the Iranians will come very hard on negotiation. So I don't think
10:22there will be an agreement. So President Trump will have to decide whether you want to postpone
10:25the ultimatum, because now the Iranians send the response, so maybe you can have negotiation on that,
10:31or you can decide to accelerate and expand the war, or by attacking civilian infrastructure,
10:36or actually by using its own forces. And it can do, like I mentioned,
10:40Harg Island or the islands in the normal straits. Definitely it is something that is on the table
10:46right now regarding to the U.S. administration. But one thing we have to say, there is no silver
10:52bullet solution for the Iranian problem. Even if the American forces, together with maybe other
10:58forces, will take Harg Island or will take the three islands, it's not going to end the war. It's going
11:04to prolong the war, Iran is going to retaliate, and it's not going to capitulate. So at the end of
11:09the
11:09day, maybe in the U.S. they think it will increase the pressure, and it definitely will increase the
11:14pressure on the regime, but the regime is not going to capitulate as long as staying in power,
11:19and this is unfortunately the fact now.
11:21And just a final question for you. Should that scenario unfold? American troops take Harg Island,
11:29as you suggest, this Iranian island that houses a lot of Iranian oil? I mean, that's fantastic news,
11:35isn't it, for Bibi Netanyahu? Well, in the end of the day, I think that Israel is hoping to degrade
11:44the civilian infrastructure of Iran. But even if the U.S. will take Harg Island, it's not a solution. First,
11:50Iran is not going to open the Hormuz Straits because U.S. has taken Harg Island. It was very
11:54hard to do so because the Iranians are getting ready for that, planting mines in the surrounding
11:59of the island itself. Third, you have to remember that the Iranians have had their options to take
12:03out the oil. And lastly, they will attack the energy facilities in the region. So definitely the problem
12:09that, you know, everything related to the country that is hoping that this regime will be toppled,
12:14the problem is that the way to topple this regime goes by extreme escalation,
12:19that will eventually lead to the Iranians attacking the oil facilities, the energy
12:23facilities in the Gulf. I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm saying that you have to bear
12:28in mind that things can get very ugly in terms of if Israel and the U.S. will decide to
12:34expand.
12:35They definitely can do that. But the solution or the bottom line of things, that the regime
12:39won't collapse. It will retaliate. It will be probably very weak. By the end of the day, I don't
12:44think it will collapse. And even more than that, it will have the ability to inflict a lot of damage
12:50to the energy facilities in the region. Thus, we won't know what will happen to the price of oil
12:56barrel if that will happen in the near future. All right, Danny Citrinowicz talking to us there
13:02from Israel's Institute for National Security Studies. Good to get your thoughts. Thank you.
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