00:00It's Benzinga, bringing Wall Street to Main Street.
00:02Wall Street economists raised recession risk estimates as the Iran war,
00:06higher oil prices, and labor market weakness increase uncertainty, according to CNBC.
00:11Moody's analytics raised its 12-month recession outlook to 48.6%.
00:16Goldman Sachs put odds at 30%, Wilmington Trust at 45%, and EY Parthenon at 40%,
00:23with risks rising if conflict worsens.
00:25Economists said higher oil prices could push the economy into contraction if sustained.
00:30The labor market showed weak hiring with limited job gains concentrated in health care.
00:35Payrolls in other sectors declined and unemployment held at 4.4% due to low firing rather than strong hiring.
00:42A NerdWallet survey found 65% of consumers expect a recession within the next year,
00:47up 6 percentage points from the prior month.
00:50Wilmington Trust's Luke Tilley said rising stock market gains have driven 20% to 25%
00:55of spending growth over the past two years, warning that growth could weaken if that support fades.
01:01GDP is tracking at 2% growth in the first quarter after rising 0.7% in the fourth quarter,
01:07with economists seeing only a modest rebound from the prior slowdown.
01:10An end to the war, along with stimulus from the one big beautiful bill,
01:15lower regulations, tax returns, and rising production,
01:18could support growth and help the economy avoid worse outcomes.
01:22For all things money, visit Benzinga.com.
01:25By reading from bijna, visit Benzinga.com
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