Trump Tariffs Shock Markets, JPMorgan Raises Global Recession Risk To 60%, Slashes U.S. GDP Forecast

JPMorgan now sees a 60% chance of global recession and projects that the U.S. GDP will shrink by thirty basis points in the fourth quarter, revising its prior forecast of more than 1% growth. Trump’s announcement of the highest U.S. tariffs in over a century triggered a stock market crash. The selloff erased over $6 trillion in market value in just two days. The Fed is unlikely to cut rates amid rising inflation and increasing fears of stagflation. Economists warn that the policy shock could stall household spending and investment, with uncertainty already rattling businesses. Economists say the burden now falls on consumer resilience to avoid a downturn, as support from Congress and the Fed remains uncertain.