00:00Garrett Crochet, Tarek Skubal. This is power on power in terms of the American League Cy Young Award right now.
00:07What's the pricing out at this very moment? Because you got Crochet and Skubal going back and forth, back and forth right now.
00:15Mike Tyson is a minus 120 favorite, a.k.a. Tarek Skubal, and Evander Holyfield is minus 110, a.k.a. Garrett Crochet.
00:23Again, if you're wondering why both are over 50 percent, got to account for the hold of the sportsbook. The profit margin is built into those odds.
00:33It's real close. And I want to actually hear your top line prediction, because I went through the six starts that both of them have remaining.
00:44And I think when you look at those six starts, a name starts to rise to the top.
00:49Really? OK. I know the Yankees have a bit of a cakewalk the rest of the way. I don't know what the Red Sox schedule looks like.
00:57Remember, it's not just it's not just the Red Sox schedule. It's like Garrett Crochet's specific starts that he's going to go up against and Tarek Skubal's specific starts that he's going to go up against.
01:08OK, so Skubal, just giving you the rundown right now, 25 starts. He's 11 and 3 with a 2-3-2 ERA, 159 in the third innings.
01:16He's punched out 200 and walked 25. Garrett Crochet, meanwhile, he's 14 and 5 through 26 starts with a 2-3-8 ERA and 166 in the third.
01:28He's punched out 207 and walked 42.
01:31So Crochet has the edge in innings and strikeouts just by a little bit. Skubal has the slight edge in ERA as it stands right now.
01:41I don't think there's any underlying voter bias about not wanting to vote for a guy in back-to-back years.
01:46I think if Skubal was the best pitcher in the American League, he would win back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards.
01:51But there's something about the way Crochet is pitching as of late that just feels overwhelmingly dominant.
01:57And I know that Skubal has been that guy all year long, but it almost feels like Crochet has leveled up to a certain extent.
02:04And Crochet, his last time out, seven innings of one-run ball, he punched out 11.
02:09Before that, seven innings of one-run ball, he punched out eights.
02:12He had that blip in Houston, but before that, seven innings of two-run ball, he paid eights.
02:18And before that, six innings of two-run ball, he paid 10.
02:21It's clockwork every single time.
02:24So I feel like when I look down the line, and I feel like we have this conversation in three months,
02:30I think we're talking about a Garrett Crochet Cy Young Award, to be totally honest with you.
02:34It's really going to be difficult to deny Crochet the American League Cy Young if he wins the Triple Crown.
02:41And what I mean by that is ERA, innings, and strikeouts.
02:46Because like I said, both have six starts remaining.
02:50Crochet has about a seven-inning lead and a seven-strikeout lead.
02:55Common mistake, you see.
03:00It's not innings.
03:01It's part of the pitching Triple Crown.
03:02You know what it is?
03:04What is it?
03:04It's wins.
03:07But you know what?
03:08Who's got the lead to wins?
03:09Crochet is leading the American League in wins.
03:11Okay, so he might just win the Triple Crown anyway.
03:15But yes, however you want to phrase it, what I think is most important, and what I even think the voters are coming to now, is innings, ERA, and strikeouts.
03:24But let's go through their six remaining starts, and you start to see a path of how Tarek Skubal can lower that ERA enough to give him the win here.
03:34Crochet is going to go up against the Orioles in his next start.
03:37The Guardians, the A's, the Yankees, the Rays, and then the Tigers.
03:42There are some tough starts in there.
03:45There are some easy ones.
03:46I would say that's an average schedule moving forward.
03:49Yeah.
03:50Tarek Skubal, as we're recording this, he's going up against the A's, then the Royals, then the White Sox, then the Marlins, and then the Guardians twice.
04:03And you might say, Guardians are a divisional matchup.
04:07Not too bad of an offense.
04:09They've seen Skubal plenty of times.
04:10Can they get to him?
04:12Well, Skubal has a nine-inning shutout against them, complete game, and a seven-inning shutout against them.
04:18So do the real quick math in your head.
04:20That's zero earned runs.
04:2223 strikeouts.
04:24He owns the Guardians, and he gets them twice.
04:28Now, can the Guardians make an adjustment?
04:30Sure.
04:30But when I look at the remaining schedule, you see a path to Skubal having a decently-sized lead in ERA.
04:42But with the way Crochet is pitching right now, does it matter the competition?
04:47The Yankees have the best WRC Plus in baseball.
04:51He has 21 innings against them with 27 strikeouts and a 2-9-5 ERA.
