Giants vs. Phillies Showdown: Robbie Ray vs. Aaron Nola Analysis

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00:00We've got Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phils against Robbie Ray and SF, minus 146 in favor of Philadelphia.

00:07Total stands at 7.5. What's the play in Philly?

00:11Yeah, trusting Aaron Nola in this spot tonight might be a little bit of a danger zone.

00:15Why? You take a look at him on the season through his 16 and two-thirds innings pitch,

00:18about a 550 ERA, not very good, but his XFIP is much lower at 3.63.

00:25You take a look at that San Francisco lineup today, as it looks,

00:28Willie Adamas and Patrick Bailey, only ones that are underperforming against right-handed pitching.

00:33Everybody else has really good numbers, and that should help.

00:36Now, the old wild card of this one is going to be Robbie Ray,

00:39because you look at his statistics, he's 15 and a third innings pitched.

00:42He's got a low ERA at 2.93, but an XFIP of 5.44. Why? Because he's pretty wild.

00:47He walks a lot of batters. He does have some strikeout numbers against left-handed batters,

00:51but against righties, hasn't done all that well.

00:53However, you take a look at Schwarber with great numbers against lefties, that neutralizes.

00:57Because Castellanos, the only positive batter against left-handed pitching for the Philadelphia Phillies

01:01in that lineup today, hate to do it.

01:04Like, the game went over yesterday, and San Francisco's got a pretty good lineup looking today.

01:07I think the Phillies do win, because I don't think Robbie Ray is really up to the competition

01:11as he was just a few years back.

01:13But at the same time, probably looking for an under again in Philadelphia

01:15with that low total of seven and a half.