- 14 hours ago
After playing two of the group's toughest games, Scotland sit joint top of their World Cup Qualifying Group and look well placed to make it to America next summer.But after a disappointing Euros, are they any better prepared for The World Cup? Adam Clery looks at the differences between their Denmark and Belarus games, and shows why this might be the best we've ever seen Steve Clarke's side.
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00:00Good morning everybody, or afternoon, or just whenever, welcome to ACFC, and Scotland currently
00:06sit joint top of their World Cup qualification group, having played on paper the toughest game
00:13and the biggest banana skin. And that is, also on paper, quite unlike them. A really hard-fought
00:210-0 in Copenhagen was followed up by a dominant 2-0 win in just what is quite literally the
00:27setting of all my recurring COVID nightmares, and this puts them in a really strong position
00:32to grab that playoff spot, or potentially even automatic qualification, if they fancy having
00:39a go at Denmark in the return leg at Hamden. But why am I here, you understandably ask? Well,
00:44I have thought for a very long time that this Scotland team is so close, so, so close to being
00:50a genuine force internationally, and across those two games, I think there were signs that
00:56they've arrived at a position where they won't just qualify for an international tournament,
01:01but they could potentially, properly, compete at one as well. So, I want to tell you why.
01:10Now there is one other reason why we're here today, and that's because I intend to improve
01:15your life immeasurably by introducing you, if you're not already familiar, with Nutmeg. If you
01:20follow me on any of the, like, 200 social medias, you'll know I've been doing stuff with them
01:25for a little while, but this video here, since it is about Scottish football, and they make
01:30the best thing about Scottish football, it's just a little partnership for you. Amongst other
01:34things, they produce this absolutely stunning quarterly magazine, and it's just full, look,
01:40of just these brilliant footballing stories, all made in Scotland, like me. There is a link
01:46in the description, how very original of us, and if you go to that, you will get 20% off,
01:52I'll keep this brief, a Nutmeg season ticket, which is four issues, an entire year's worth
01:57of the magazine, and a 12-month subscription to everything on the website, which occasionally
02:02includes me. And if you want an endorsement, I will simply say, I'm doing a lot of fun stuff
02:07right now, but this is one of the funnest. I love this. Anyway though, right, Scotland,
02:13why do I find myself biting my bottom lip in excitement every single time I watch them
02:17at the minute? Because it's certainly not because they've become this free-flowing
02:21goal-scoring machine, is it? Like over the last 12 months, that Croatia result was really
02:25impressive, but largely down to the first half sending off, and that 1-0 against Greece
02:30did feel promising, yes, but of course they then absolutely chucked it in the return leg
02:35and got beat 3-0. They then put in the single worst Iceland performance I've seen since that
02:40Kerry Katona advert, and beating Liechtenstein does not really count, because out of 210 recognised
02:46FIFA nations, they are 204th, which purely in terms of population is the equivalent of
02:54playing Glenroth. You know, the third biggest town in Fyfe, but the thing is, right, and
03:00very conveniently for me who was making this video, when you are a nation of Scotland stature,
03:05being good and competitive at international football is not actually about scoring loads
03:10of goals. What it's about is being really, really solid and compact when you have to be,
03:16but also having something that is both unpredictable and undefendable at the top end of the pitch,
03:22and I think if you watched both those Scotland qualifiers, I know they didn't exactly set your
03:27pulse racing, but I would say for the first time, they tick all three of those boxes. Now this was
03:34the
03:3411 in that game, and I do think average positions are sort of an imperfect data thing, because if you
03:38move any player around positionally during the match, it makes it all completely useless, but this
03:44was back in a 4-2-3-1, which was in reality just basically a 4-4-2, and if
03:51we look at those average
03:52positions, you can see exactly why that was. The way the data is collected here, it's always going to come
03:57out as more of a 2-4-4, but you can see the lines being pretty straight. You can see
04:02those are
04:03consistent banks across the pitch. And of course, if you watch the game, you will have seen they were
04:07just in this proper neeps and tatties low block. They barely saw the ball. They had like 27%
04:14possession. Denmark dominated the play and yet came out with a comparable number of attempts on goal.
04:22They had three quarters of the ball, and the chances were 50-50-ish. In fact, I'd say this
04:28was the best chance of the game, and it comes after Scotland soak up pressure and then release
04:33quickly up the field. Like three passes, and they've gone from here to here. And were Linden Dykes
04:39not wearing a pair of Dr Martens, seemingly, I think they smash and grab this 1-0. So this is
04:46just what
04:46Scotland can look like when they are up against it. Tricky away tie against a better team,
04:51were better players. A hostile crowd, barely seeing the ball. They just had a little bit
04:57more, a little bit extra, a little jeu de vie, a little... What is that in Scottish?
05:03Dirty. I've not been up there in a while. They could have got more than just a point.
05:08I'll just show you what I mean, right? So Scotland defend this situation, I think, really,
05:12really well because they're incredibly deep. Like this is the back four here, and you're going
05:17to see the midfield all understand what their jobs are. They're not just there. First off,
05:23Robertson gets dragged out to make room for this, I think, is Dahlberg. But Ferguson's job
05:29is to make this a back five when required. So he tracks him to plug this gap. You can see
05:35Christie's also got dragged along to prevent a one versus one. So Robertson can take a position
05:40that stops the winger going down the byline. Basically, between them, they're going to force
05:45Denmark to play it backwards. And what Denmark do here is really, really good because they set up
05:50a rotation between these players that opens up the space down the right. The run from the winger is
05:57inside, which pulls Robertson and Christie with him, allowing the fullback to then push up into this
06:02space. And this is the sort of stuff that good teams spend hours working on, on a training ground.
06:09This is them trying to break down a low block. But now, do you remember Ferguson and Dahlberg?
06:14Yeah, well, having dragged him into the back line and with this cross about to come in,
06:19Ferguson has to sort of hold his position there because 90% of crosses in that situation you would
06:26expect come down this line. And because he can't know what's around him, he has to be in that
06:31position to potentially head it away. And he certainly can't see that Dahlberg, after having
06:36done that run in, has now done the run back out completely on his blind side. He's dropped back
06:42into this exact space his movement has made. Ferguson can't watch him and the ball at the
06:47same time. And when the cross is a cutback, he then reacts. But it's all beautifully worked.
06:53It's dummied. He steps over it. And this should open Scotland wide up for Dahlberg to get a really
07:01good effort of goal. Like, they might have done everything right in this situation. They've set a
07:06rotation out wide. They've moved players into positions they don't want to be in. They found space both out
07:11wide and in the centre and then connected both of those with a quality delivery. Scotland should be
07:18f***ed here. But look at the number of bodies. Look at the reaction. Look at Scott McTominay being
07:22alive to the danger and getting the block in. Now, am I overanalyzing one tiny part of the game? Yes!
07:30Of course I am. Have we met? But this is really good, dynamic, clever play from Denmark that Scotland
07:37individually and collectively managed to defend really well. And that's the sort of defending
07:43that will translate against even better sides. There's just a great understanding of collective
07:50principles, of individual responsibility. It's a really good sign for me, who's mad.
07:56But I know what you're all going to say, right? Because it's the exact same thing I'm thinking.
08:00Scotland's problem consistently over the years has never really been giving the big teams a game.
08:07They always tend to sort of hold their own against sides that are allegedly superior.
08:12It's how they then take those fundamentals of defending well and sort of working really hard
08:17and then scale that up into games where they should dominate the opposition, where they do get a lot
08:22of the ball, where they should be on top, and then being ruthless, putting teams away. That always tends
08:29to be the problem, doesn't it? Now, I am going to yap here for a second, right? So just bear
08:34with me,
08:34regardless of what formation you are starting with, if you want to really be on top in a game of
08:39football,
08:40what you're looking to do these days is find a way to get five players consistently and comfortably
08:48into the same attacking line, right? Without any of them being wildly out of position or doing things
08:53they're not comfortable doing, and without completely destabilising the players behind them
08:59at the same time. And Steve's Clark Scotland, Steve's Clark Scotland, have never really been able to do this.
09:05Like, even when they had the back three with the two wing backs, whenever one of them pushed on, remember,
09:10the other one used to tuck across and become a full back, and they would have a back four.
09:14They've never had the ability to overload the top end like this...
09:20Until now. Granted, it's only Belarus, but it's always only somebody, and I've still never seen
09:27them do this as well or as consistently as in the last two games, right? From the very first minute,
09:32Scotland had that front line of five, Doak out on the left, Max Johnston on the right, Adams tying up
09:38both central defenders in the middle, and McTominay and McGinn able to concentrate their play
09:43into these channels here, where they do their best work. And Scotland, in the first goal in that game,
09:50due to Belarus, what Denmark tried and failed to do to them. So look, there you go, there is that
09:57front
09:57five. They have Belarus stretched so far out, and just like Robertson, in this scenario, their full back
10:04now has to go out. And again, just like Dahlberg did here, Lewis Ferguson has joined in, he's pulled a
10:10defender in with him to plug this gap, and is now jogging back out to see if he'll go with
10:16him to
10:17open up that space. And that's why in the Denmark example, I said Ferguson probably did the right thing
10:22standing there and waiting for the cross, because you can see whoever this is just starts following
10:26him around like a lost dog, and already this is beginning to open up. But the difference here is that
10:33rather than work a rotation and go for a cutback, Scotland's best weapon would undoubtedly be
10:38Scott McTominay in the air. So they use that. The second this ball is in flight, just look at the
10:45scenario we've got here. The whip has done this, and the movement has done this. Any header back across,
10:53and it's a goal, which it is, and it is. So this system, this return to a 4-2-3
11:00-1, I think finally
11:01gives Scotland the adaptability they've been lacking. Because as I've seen, you can just do it as a 4-4
11:06-2,
11:06it can drop, it can be compact, it can be hard to break down. But if you have Ben Doak
11:11in it,
11:11it's also very attacking. Let me get in the McTominay, they can move up and play around Adams,
11:16which gives you that nice narrow three in the middle. And whether it's Hickey or it's Johnston,
11:20you get all your width down that side from a really energetic, aggressive fullback. And then
11:25you can simply shuffle these lot into a 3 and a 2. Andy Robertson gives you the ability to be
11:31a left-sided
11:31centre-back. But also, he's so bloody good and experienced, if you're feeling absolutely mad,
11:37he can also give you a 2-3 as well. Which again, adaptability. And you can see that clear as
11:44chips
11:44on the position graph for this game. Like, you've got your attacking front five there,
11:49your right-back even more aggressive than your right-sided attacker. And you can see,
11:55illustrated nicely by Andy Robertson being perfectly in the middle,
11:57that sometimes there's a 2 and a 3, and sometimes there's a 3 and a 2. They've finally
12:02found a way to do this. And the beauty of it is, you can get even more aggressive with it
12:07if you
12:07want to. Like, Doak wants to come infield here, which if you've got Robertson, Loitering in this
12:11area, allows him to get round on the overlap like he really wants to do, but probably can't
12:16for 90 minutes. That gives you a sixth player in there if you want it. Also,
12:21Bergeson's an absolute machine. He'll run up and down all day. So if you can manage to
12:25create a bit of space for him, he gets into those areas as well. And given that this system
12:30is so vulnerable to getting counter-attacked against, you've seen what happens to all the
12:35really top teams, Billy Gilmore, security on the ball. He will not give that away. If you lose it,
12:41chances are most of your team are going to be behind it. They don't get robbed when they're
12:47vulnerable. So my point here is not that I think Scotland are going to go and win the World Cup,
12:51but that's never been the objective, has it? Like, first it was to start qualifying for
12:55these tournaments more regularly. And now it is to be better at them. It is to be more competitive.
13:00And I think the way they look at the minute, I would say they are. Like, the system they're using
13:05makes them so hard to break down against teams that are better than them. They're going to come
13:10up against a lot of, but also without making major changes, using the same approach, it adapts into
13:16something that's going to serve them a lot better when they do start seeing the ball. And they started
13:21both these games in a 4-2-3-1. And then they had like 27% of the ball against
13:26Denmark. And then
13:28Belarus had 27% of the ball against them. That might not be completely accurate. I forgot to
13:32check, but it's about that, isn't it? So the same approach with largely a lot of the same players
13:37saw them absolutely fine for being solid, for being insecure, but also being fun and being attacking.
13:45And they got the point they wanted in Copenhagen and the three points they wanted in whatever
13:50nightmare realm this was. So yes, there you go. The future's bright, the future's orange,
13:55as they say. But just in the sense that I think we're quite likely to be seeing those funny hats
14:00with the ginger wigs under them in America this summer. But never mind, that's a bad joke. Let
14:05me know what you made of all of this in the comments below. Of course, don't forget to like the
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