00:00For more analysis, we can bring in our international affairs editor, Philip Terl.
00:04Philip, we seem to be getting a kind of mixed messaging from Trump. On the one hand,
00:08the war's nearly over. On the other, it could start back up again. How do you read that?
00:13Well, when you listen to Donald Trump and you come away from that press conference,
00:17you can either think, OK, things are going in the right direction. This could all be over by
00:21the end of the week. But you could also think, well, we don't really know where this is all going.
00:25And that is the big problem. And he's also fallen out, as we can see from this sentence here from
00:32a few days ago with the United Kingdom over their role in this war as well. So we don't know
00:39exactly
00:39what is happening here and what is motivating these comments. Is it the fear about oil prices
00:45going up, which could then affect the United States as well later on, that Donald Trump is making these
00:50rather positive announcements about, well, the war's going to be over soon and that will calm
00:55down the markets, which is what has happened overnight. Remember yesterday that oil price
00:59per barrel went up to about $120 or just under. It's come down again quite significantly since
01:04Donald Trump held that press conference. But we still don't know what the ultimate victory
01:09actually means. What does Donald Trump want to achieve? Remember at the start of this war,
01:14he was saying the people of Iran will be able to rise up and take back control of their country.
01:19This will be a unique opportunity for them to do that. We will tell them when they will be able
01:23to.
01:23Well, that all seems to have disappeared into the woodwork and we don't hear that anymore from
01:27the American president. What we're hearing is basically he would be happy to call an end to
01:34the war when he feels that the nuclear program of Iran has been totally destroyed, but no more
01:40mention about regime change or even trying to get rid of the newly elected head of the country,
01:48Mojtaba Khamenei, or exactly what Donald Trump intends to do about that. He said he's unhappy,
01:54but how is he going to negotiate with that regime in the future? We don't know. So a lot of
01:59uncertainty,
02:00a lot of questions that are without answers. And just to sum it up, we had Donald Trump saying
02:06in his press conference, well, it's going to be over soon. Just 24 hours ago, we had Pete Eggseth,
02:12the so-called Secretary of State for War in the United States, the Defense Secretary,
02:17saying we're just getting started. So that leaves the door open to all sorts of questions about
02:23exactly what the end of this war looks like and when it's going to happen.
02:26Right. Well, let's take a look at how the war has been handled here in Europe. We've got
02:32French President Emmanuel Macron, who on Monday pledged to dispatch additional warships to the
02:38eastern Mediterranean to strengthen allies' security in the region. Let's take a listen to
02:43Macron, who spoke in Cyprus.
02:48We are not a part of this offensive. Our objective is to protect our nationals,
02:53and we're putting ourselves in a position to defend them for the next few weeks and months,
02:58if necessary. Macron is speaking there before visiting the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier,
03:05which arrived this weekend in the eastern Mediterranean. Philip, what's all this about
03:09them? Well, Emmanuel Macron sees himself as probably one of the most influential European leaders.
03:16Remember, France is a member of the UN Security Council. France is a nuclear power. So he is keen to
03:22show that France is supporting other EU nations when they come under threat, which is the case where
03:26it is involving Cyprus with this attack against military bases there, British military bases.
03:33But there is a special partnership between France and Cyprus. So Emmanuel Macron has gone there to show
03:38that France has a series of objectives. First one, to show support for Cyprus. Second one,
03:45to defend France's interests. Third one, to act as a go-between between the Iranians on one side and
03:51the Americans on the other to try to bring the two sides together to find a way out of the
03:56current
03:56conflict. He also wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the missile attacks that are raining down on
04:04the region right now have come to an end. Remember, 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies go
04:08through
04:08the Strait of Hormuz. That, for Emmanuel Macron, is very important in a way of keeping prices down here in
04:14Europe, which would obviously be unfavourable when it comes to political parties in power and bring
04:20down their opinion poll ratings. And the third one is to defend freedom of navigation, not only in the
04:26Red Sea, but also in the Strait of Hormuz. So that is what Emmanuel Macron is attempting to outline with
04:33this trip there. But there is no way that France is going to get involved in this war and launch
04:39attacks
04:39against Iran. That is something that Emmanuel Macron has made very clear, and for a series of reasons,
04:45because many countries are asking a lot of questions. For example, if we did follow Donald Trump,
04:53would we be breaking international law? Would we risk getting involved in a conflict which doesn't have
04:59an endgame absolutely carved out for us to see where we're going in all of this? And are we able
05:07to
05:07protect our interests if we get involved in this war against Iran? So I think those are the questions
05:11that have been answered. That's why Emmanuel Macron has made this pretty clear. Yes, we are involved.
05:16Yes, we are sending warships to the region, but this is purely for defensive action. We're not taking
05:21part in the offensive against Iran. So is France and the European Union grappling with how to defend
05:27their interests in the region? It's difficult for many of those countries to see eye to eye with what
05:36Donald Trump is doing. And it's quite interesting. You have the case of Spain, for example, where Spain
05:41has fallen out with the United States because Spain refused to let the US use its bases. There was this
05:46very aggressive response from Donald Trump saying, well, in that case, we're going to cut all ties with
05:50Spain economically, diplomatically. That's it. We're not having anything else to do with them.
05:55Then you have the case of the United Kingdom, where there's been this spat between Donald Trump and
06:02the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer over the use of a UK base in the Chagos Islands, which was not
06:10given and then given afterwards. Donald Trump then saying with that quote we saw earlier that it's too
06:15late. We don't want to bring on friends when we've already won the war. That appears now to have calmed
06:20done a little bit since the phone call between Donald Trump and Keir Starmer on Sunday. There are
06:25other countries in the Gulf who have been sending in frigates to the area, four of them France, Germany,
06:34Greece and the United Kingdom, which are all sending frigates there to boost the French effort.
06:42And Greece, Portugal and the UK have also let the US use their bases there. But I think there's a
06:47feeling as I was saying in those questions earlier on that they don't want to get involved in this.
06:51And there is pressure from opposition parties within those countries to join forces with the
06:56United States and trying to finish off the threat which Iran poses in the Gulf. But many countries
07:01say, well, the absolute objective of the United States is still not clear enough. And we don't want
07:07to go in and get involved in another Iraqi type situation that we saw in 2003, where this could lead
07:13to
07:14the collapse of the country and make the situation even worse afterwards. That's why we are only
07:18intending to go down to protect our interests. I think the other thing that many of these countries
07:23would like to do, and particularly France, is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That's why they're
07:27sending down the Charles de Gaulle and all these frigates there in a bid to try to get those oil
07:32supplies through the Strait of Hormuz once the attacks have died down there. All of this in a bid to
07:37keep oil
07:37prices stable and to stop a sudden increase, which could be very detrimental to economies
07:44not only in Europe, but right away around the world.
07:46All right, Philip, thank you very much for your analysis.
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