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00:16Parliament is back for another year and it's high drama in Canberra.
00:20I wouldn't have that much hope.
00:21Hello.
00:23Right-wing politics in Australia is undergoing a radical realignment.
00:28We've got less than an hour to go now.
00:29Decide whether to stick with Susan Lee or turn to Angus Taylor.
00:34We've got some breaking news.
00:35Angus 34, Susan Lee 17.
00:40Angus Taylor now leads a party on the brink.
00:43If an election was held today, our party may not exist by the end of it.
00:48But will a change of leader avoid electoral wipeout?
00:52One Nation has surged ahead in multiple polls, demolishing the coalition's standing.
00:58You see the people on the move.
01:00The polling's correct.
01:01I see it.
01:01I've walked into hotels and even as recently as this weekend, people started clapping.
01:08Parties like One Nation.
01:09They don't get the answers right, but they can tell you the problem.
01:13But there's a much bigger battle still in play.
01:16Angus Taylor may have won the leadership contest, but this is still a party divided, even in its conservative wing.
01:24On one side is a group led by the new leader, who says a traditional approach is the way to
01:30win back government.
01:31We're in this position because we didn't stay true to our core values.
01:36On the other side is a group led by Andrew Hastie, pushing for a more populist, radical change.
01:42What we really need to talk about is immigration.
01:45Helped by a lobby group gathering strength.
01:48We need people committed to the cause who will go all the way to the end to win.
01:53Oh, the Liberal Party needs an enema.
01:56The most successful party in the country's post-war history is at an existential crossroad.
02:03Well, the average Australian is a 37-year-old woman.
02:06The average Liberal Party member is a male in his 70s.
02:11Four Corners takes you inside the revolution on the right of politics.
02:16With the popularity of One Nation surging, there's a battle inside the Liberal and National parties
02:22about whether to emulate the populist strategy of Donald Trump and the UK's Nigel Farage
02:28or stick to the economic tradition of John Howard and Peter Costello.
02:32It's a fight much bigger than the personalities and ambitions of the central characters.
02:37It's a contest between those who changed the entire direction of their party
02:42and those who believe that would mean political death.
03:10Well, first of all, we mourn and pray for those killed, injured and traumatised by this.
03:15It's December 15, the morning after the Bondi terrorism attack,
03:20and Barnaby Joyce is framing the atrocity around multiculturalism and Australian values.
03:26The culture that was represented in those murderers is untenable in Australia.
03:33Just a week earlier, he had defected from the Nationals to join One Nation.
03:38It's about growing the team and bringing on other people to enhance what we have to offer
03:45and people will look at One Nation with a different focus.
03:51I, Madam Deputy Speaker, do not believe in multiculturalism.
03:55I believe in an Australian culture.
03:59We have to, Madam Deputy Speaker, say the things that in the past would be called politically incorrect.
04:04We have to become strong.
04:10Why One Nation?
04:12I feel a very strong philosophical alignment, not on everything,
04:16but with most things with One Nation and discussions over a long period of time.
04:21You said not on everything.
04:23Yep.
04:23What not?
04:24Well, there's certain things that work for Pauline that don't work for me,
04:26and I'll give you a classic one, the burka, right?
04:28That is not something that works for me.
04:30It works for Pauline, but it does not work for me.
04:32You know, I have also, I'm standing for the Senate in New South Wales, not in Queensland.
04:37And I understand, because I've been a senator in Queensland, these are two different states,
04:41and I have to be relevant in Sydney, especially in the western suburbs of Sydney.
04:46The leaders of this nation...
04:47Barnaby Joyce's decision angered his former colleagues, including Senator Matt Canavan.
04:54How worried are you now that One Nation may become more competitive under your best mate, Barnaby Joyce?
05:01Well, One Nation is a serious threat to us, because, as I say, I believe we've failed people in recent
05:06years.
05:07In terms of Barnaby, yeah, look, of course, that is going to hurt us.
05:12He is a political rock star.
05:28It's Sunday afternoon, mid-January, and politicians have been forced to return to Parliament
05:34weeks earlier than planned to consider new laws in the wake of the Bondi attack.
05:42Liberal MPs arrive knowing it's a critical moment for their party.
05:49Different camps are vying for influence over their party room.
05:56And all of them are trying to keep One Nation and their star recruit at bay.
06:04How are you?
06:25Debate on the hate speech bill deepened fractures in the Liberal Party and caused the Nationals
06:31to walk away from the Coalition.
06:34It also made Susan Lee's already fragile leadership more precarious, right when the first news poll
06:43of the year confirmed the Liberals' worst nightmare.
06:47One Nation had just overtaken them.
06:55This is the first poll in Australia's history that another party is polling higher than one
07:02of the major parties.
07:04I am proud to acknowledge One Nation is polling higher than the Liberals.
07:27I want your assessment of what's happening with One Nation.
07:30They are the most formidable they've been in their 30-year history.
07:34There's this enormous economic insecurity which is breeding grievance, which is breeding, you
07:39know, looking for a vehicle to express that frustration, and One Nation is filling that void.
07:46Tony Barry lives and breathes the Liberal Party.
07:50As a former strategist, he's helped shape its direction, and now as a pollster, he's watching
07:56it evaporate.
07:56Well, I think the problem is the Liberal Party has no identity anymore.
08:00It's not defined.
08:01It used to be a party about economic management and economic security for families, for pensioners
08:07and superannuents, for young people to get into the market, property market, and to get
08:11established.
08:12But they gave away the economic narrative for free at the last election.
08:19Last year's election destroyed the Liberal National Coalition's position in Parliament.
08:25A party needs 76 seats to win government.
08:29The Coalition only won 43.
08:32The latest polls suggest they would win even fewer seats than that if an election was held
08:38today.
08:39I think, you know, there's a structural vote problem for the Liberal Party in Australia,
08:43and that is the Millennial and Gen Z voting class, which at the next election is projected
08:48to make up around 47-48% of the electoral roll.
08:51So these are huge voting blocks, and the Coalition's just not competitive at the moment.
08:57With the Gen Z voting class, they're polling at around 18% primary vote.
09:03Now that's catastrophic.
09:04Around one in four Gen X men are currently intending to vote One Nation.
09:09Now it is an alternate political view.
09:12Capitalising on its newfound popularity, One Nation is well on its way to launching local
09:18branches in every federal electorate in the country.
09:22Senator Matt Canavan is opening the door to a run for the lower house to beat them.
09:28Are you going to move to the lower house?
09:30Have you thought about taking them on?
09:31Look, I will see what happens.
09:35I'm open to what might happen in the future for me.
09:39Yeah, you are thinking of it, aren't you?
09:41Well, I might give it a shot.
09:43You think One Nation is capable of being properly competitive with the Coalition?
09:48Yes, I do.
09:49And I think it's really...
09:50I do hear arrogance, oh, you could never be a party of government.
09:52I've heard that, to be quite frank, from, you know, a good friend Tony Abbott.
09:55You can't be a party of government.
09:56Says who?
09:57You know, as the other people endowed from God, is there something constitutional that
10:03says that politics can't change?
10:05It is changing.
10:06It's changing all around the world.
10:08It's changing in England with Farage.
10:10It's changing in France with Le Pen.
10:12It's changing in Italy with Milano.
10:14It's changing in the United States.
10:15We're actually last to the party, not first.
10:20Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Nigel Farage.
10:33In the United Kingdom, Nigel Farage's right-wing Reform UK party is sweeping the polls.
10:40It could defeat both Labor and the once-dominant Conservatives at the next election.
10:46I am now leading Reform UK, and we are now topping every opinion poll in Britain.
10:54More than 20 current and former sitting Tories have defected to the minor party.
11:01Welcome to Reform, Andrew Rosenthal.
11:03Reform UK is populist, opposing elites or the establishment, like the traditional major parties.
11:10It's appealing to frustrated people who believe the system is failing them.
11:15And Farage is watching Pauline Hanson use the same playbook.
11:20Clear consistency from Pauline is one of the reasons she's doing well.
11:25And the likely outcome of this is that she will completely realign the centre-right of Australian politics.
11:32And who knows?
11:33Once that happens, they might even start winning elections.
11:40Whether the more populist approach of Reform UK or MAGA in the US is the path to success here
11:47is dividing the Liberal Party, with one side insisting it should stick to its traditional principles.
11:59Our plan is a supply-side agenda to grow the economy and ensure we beat inflation sustainably.
12:10It's a strong Liberal plan, in the tradition of Peter Costello and John Howard,
12:15grounded in economic responsibility and driven by enterprise.
12:20The basic philosophy of the Menzies brand of Liberalism was to encourage enterprise
12:24by providing a climate favourable to its growth.
12:27I believe in the individual.
12:30I believe in the family as the cornerstone of our happiness and of our nation.
12:35I believe in free enterprise and reward for hard work.
12:42Middle Australia is where the Liberal Party has pitched its message for more than 80 years.
12:52For 80 years, the Liberal Party's strength has come from balancing two great traditions.
12:57Freedom and enterprise on the one hand, family, stability and national pride on the other.
13:02New South Wales MP Angus Taylor was the main threat to Susan Lee's leadership
13:08from the traditional conservative wing of the party.
13:11It's time to revive what makes us Liberal.
13:16He narrowly lost the leadership vote to Susan Lee after last year's election.
13:32Earlier this month, Susan Lee made a deal with Nationals leader David Littleproud
13:37to reunite the coalition.
13:39Anyway, let's keep moving.
13:40We're going back to work for the Australian people.
13:43The compromise which she agreed to divided her party room further.
13:49Hours later, a fresh news poll declared her the most unpopular leader in a quarter century.
13:58And days later, Susan Lee was gone.
14:04Over the last nine months, according to the most recent opinion polls,
14:102.1 million have since deserted the coalition.
14:14If it goes on, there will be nothing left of the Liberal Party by the next election.
14:24The result, as I'm sure many are aware, was 34 to 17.
14:29Thank you very much.
14:40It is important that the new leader gets clear air.
14:45Something that is not always afforded to leaders.
14:48But which, in the present moment, is more important than ever?
14:56Angus Taylor and his new deputy, Victorian moderate Jane Hume,
15:01declared a return to the party's core values.
15:06One of the core things that I believe in strongly is getting access to markets.
15:10I don't like tariffs.
15:12I don't like tariffs being imposed on Australia.
15:15And I'm going to continue to fight for access to markets, for our resources, our miners, our farmers, manufacturers, our
15:23service providers.
15:24There's a push inside your party for a more populist, national approach, which is actually very anti-free markets.
15:32And it really wants to shun that approach.
15:36You're saying that you think free markets are still central and you want to put forward policy in the Howard
15:42Costello tradition.
15:43Well, can I say, the starting point for me on this is that we need to put faith in Australians.
15:49Australians to invest in the future of their businesses.
15:52And in doing that, they invest in their communities and they invest in this country.
15:58And in the process, they employ people, they serve customers, they pay suppliers.
16:02And we are all better off from that.
16:04But that can only come if we give the freedom and confidence to our businesses, small and large in this
16:12country, to get on with the job.
16:14Big government is not the answer here.
16:20You said this is a change or die moment for the Liberal Party.
16:24What needs to change?
16:25It's very clear that a big chunk of people who used to have faith and trust in the Liberal Party
16:30have walked away from us.
16:31The first and most important task in politics is to lock down your base.
16:36Senator James Patterson is the Liberal Party's power broker and kingmaker from the traditional conservative camp.
16:44So you're moving to the right to appeal to the voters who are moving to One Nation.
16:50So it's not really about left or right per se, but it is about demonstrating to our more conservative supporters
16:56that on issues like Australia's culture and national identity, on our symbols, on questions of values,
17:02that we are the traditional centre-right political party that they recognise.
17:06They want to see us stand up for things like the flag and the anthem and the Constitution and Australia
17:12Day
17:12and our Anzac tradition because they see in us, or they hope to see in us, a patriotic Australian party.
17:19But even the conservative wing, there is more of a tension, you'd have to say, around the way forward, right?
17:26Of course. There should be, right?
17:28We've just suffered our worst ever election defeat and then plunged even further in our public support since then
17:33and our traditional supporters are telling us they don't recognise what we stand for
17:37and they think we're divided.
17:38So, of course, you would expect that there'd be a debate.
17:41There has to be a debate.
17:43We are in an era where populists around the world are on the rise
17:47and in Australia, One Nation's polling tells that story.
17:50Sure.
17:51You appear, correct me if I'm wrong, as a very traditional Liberal of the Howard-Costello model.
17:58Is that something you lean into and you're proud of?
18:00Or do you think perhaps you don't fit the times?
18:03Well, I think what fits the times, BK, is an approach from the Liberal Party
18:08where we believe in economic freedom, where we believe that if the private sector
18:13is enabled to make investments, to make choices,
18:16they will make good investments and good choices that benefit all Australians.
18:21And that economic freedom, I think, is enormously important.
18:25Many of the populists around the world are not focused on those things.
18:32One of the MPs seen as populist is Andrew Hastie,
18:36who will now be Taylor's main leadership rival within the party.
18:43We have to take back control.
18:45That means killing net zero.
18:47That means getting power prices down.
18:49That means investing in manufacturing.
18:52And that means, to those on the other side, putting Australians first.
18:55Member for Gordon has the call.
19:00To the west of Brisbane in the Darling Downs region lies Toowoomba.
19:12The large inland city is in the seat of Groom
19:15and has been held by Liberals and Nationals for the past 90 years.
19:28Senator Matt Canavan is in town to talk to voters,
19:31alongside local Liberal member Garth Hamilton.
19:39Are you worried about the fact that people want to vote for One Nation
19:42more than the Liberal Party?
19:44No, I'm not worried about that at all.
19:46Why not?
19:46Because I think that even if the Liberal Party
19:50got into power as a minority government,
19:52I think they're close enough to One Nation
19:55in terms of policies and positions that they could work together.
19:59We've seen Nigel Farage rise in the UK,
20:02obviously Trumpism in the US.
20:04Is that what appeals to you about him?
20:06Yes, I'm probably more right-wing in the views of Trump and Nigel.
20:12I think they've got to have a firm...
20:14something to unite the party, you know,
20:16just...and get everyone on the same page.
20:20Are you worried about climate change?
20:22Not at all.
20:23Why not?
20:24I believe it's just a hoax, the whole thing.
20:28I grew up in the country,
20:30and, you know, I think you...
20:31you know that you have all the seasons, flooding, droughts, you know.
20:40If I go to Metropolitan Australia, Sydney and Melbourne,
20:43and I speak to Liberals, moderates,
20:45they say there is no way a lot of what you're saying will work there.
20:48They cannot win city seats with some of this.
20:51What do you say to that?
20:52I think that's a real challenge for the Liberal Party
20:55is that...or the Conservatives,
20:59the LNP nationals,
21:03they've got all the Bush seats.
21:05They held on to those.
21:08Sydney and Melbourne, they've got to make penetration there.
21:11What do you think the Conservative side of politics
21:15needs to do to kind of make themselves relevant?
21:20I think, um...
21:22..the Conservative Party needs to have
21:25a very definite point of difference.
21:28Um...
21:29They cannot make a statement or have a policy
21:33and then, when it's disagreed, with cringe.
21:36No, they can't do that.
21:41Matt Canavan and Garth Hamilton
21:43are among a vocal group
21:45who believe economic protectionism is the way forward.
21:49They think their parties must shift away
21:51from the Howard Costello era,
21:53which was defined by policies that favoured the free market.
21:59Do I think that the Liberal national parties
22:02can win with an ideological pursuit of free trade
22:06and free markets?
22:08No, I do not.
22:09I do not at all.
22:12Because I'm...
22:13I'm not in politics to deliver free trade.
22:16The loss of energy competitiveness means, means,
22:19that we have to reconsider
22:21how much manufacturing we want in this country
22:24and how we're going to keep it here,
22:25including...including by protecting some of it
22:27from outside competition.
22:28I have to remind myself
22:30that we used to make cars in this country,
22:33but that's all gone.
22:33And both the Liberals and Labor
22:35have let us down in the past
22:37by letting the car industry disappear from our shores.
22:40For months, Western Australian MP Andrew Hastie
22:44was casting himself
22:45as a possible leader of the Liberal Party,
22:48promising generational change
22:50and a more populist approach.
22:52So, yeah, I'm for Australians.
22:54I'm for putting Australians first.
22:57He's a former SAS officer
22:59and has built a sizeable online following.
23:02We've got to focus on building up Australia
23:04and putting Australians first.
23:05We shouldn't be taking orders from the United Nations.
23:07We should be looking after ourselves first and foremost,
23:09getting power bills down
23:11and investing in our country.
23:13Authorised by Andrew Hastie, Liberal Party, Mandurah.
23:16Garth Hamilton is widely acknowledged
23:18to be one of Andrew Hastie's lieutenants in the party.
23:22You think he'd be a good leader, right?
23:24Look, I think he'd be a great leader.
23:26I think he is a good leader.
23:28I think he's provided leadership for the party now.
23:31How do you think the Liberal Party needs to change?
23:35I think there's some big questions
23:37that we should be looking at for how we want to change
23:40that deal with the issues of, you know,
23:42this idea of free markets and globalisation
23:44that we very strongly championed previously.
23:48We made those decisions before, you know,
23:50our biggest friend in the world put tariffs on us,
23:54before we had a trade war with China.
23:56The world's changed.
23:57Context has changed for some of our decision-making.
24:00That would be a radical change for the Liberal Party, though.
24:04There are some things that are, you know,
24:05perfectly reasonable for us to protect.
24:08I don't know why we shouldn't be looking at our manufacturing industry
24:11and seeing that as something that's crucial to our way of life,
24:14let alone, should I say, our capacity to defend ourselves.
24:18I don't think there's anything wrong with talking about, you know,
24:20taking a step into that space and making sure that it's there.
24:24Andrew Hastie was a contender,
24:25and he's actually very much of this school of economic nationalism.
24:29It is very different to the economic rationalism.
24:32I'd love you to reflect on that divergence
24:34we're seeing inside the Liberal Party.
24:36Well, Andrew's one of my closest friends in Parliament,
24:39and I think the extent of his divergence
24:42from mainstream centre-right economics has been overstated.
24:44I think he does believe, and he has said,
24:47he believes in free trade.
24:48He's not arguing for tariffs or protection.
24:49He believes in free enterprise.
24:51But he does see that the world has changed since the 1990s,
24:55and particularly we're in a different geopolitical environment,
24:58and that does warrant different public policy response.
25:01He says he thinks the economic orthodoxy
25:03of the Howard Costello Times is essentially for boomers,
25:06that it's a boomer headspace.
25:09I mean, that's how he sees it,
25:12and your new leader is very much of that boomer headspace, isn't he?
25:16You know, I'm under 40.
25:17Andrew's only a little bit over 40,
25:19and it is our generation and those that are below us
25:22who've got a raw deal when it comes to the housing market in particular.
25:25If you want them to be able to build wealth for themselves
25:27to get into the housing market, what do you need?
25:29More housing supply, lower taxes for them so they can accumulate wealth,
25:33and yes, also lower immigration so they're competing less with others.
25:37Liberal Party rising star Andrew Hastie
25:39has pulled out of a potential leadership spill,
25:41admitting he doesn't have the numbers to win the top job.
25:45Despite his very public campaign for a new kind of Liberal Party,
25:49late last month, Andrew Hastie withdrew from his leadership tilt.
25:54Rumours of a spill have been rife since the coalition split last Thursday.
25:59But by then, he'd already had a significant influence
26:02in the direction of the party.
26:09Since the last election,
26:11his group succeeded in dumping net-zero climate emissions
26:14from the party's policy platform.
26:16His next campaign was immigration,
26:19which he linked to higher house prices.
26:22It soon became one of the party's top priorities.
26:25What we really need to talk about is immigration.
26:29I think we need to narrow very dramatically
26:32those who we let into our country.
26:34I want to see people come to this country who speak English,
26:37who support Australian values.
26:39Numbers are one thing,
26:40but I think who we bring into our country is really important.
26:43They have to sign up to Australian values,
26:45which are fundamentally Judeo-Christian values.
26:49I think it's an important question we should be asking ourselves.
26:52How do we know that the Australia we're building
26:55through our migration program
26:57is the Australia that the Australian people want?
27:01Now, that to me sounds like you're talking about specific groups.
27:04Maybe too many Islamic people, too many Indian people.
27:08Is that what it's about,
27:09that ultimately you're actually talking about
27:11the kind of groups you're bringing in?
27:13I think there is a conversation about making sure
27:15that you have the balance
27:16that is going to reflect a society that we want to see.
27:20I think if we got out of balance,
27:22you would probably find different challenges.
27:27What's out of balance, though?
27:29I think if you look at how Australia's grown,
27:32we've had different community groups
27:33come over a long period of time.
27:35We've had areas of Australia that are like Toowoomba here.
27:38There's enough room, people seem to meld in.
27:41And it becomes a nice city
27:43with a whole range of different stories.
27:46But here's the test for balance.
27:49Out of that diversity,
27:50do you get a unity of purpose and direction?
28:15Even though the debate about immigration
28:17was running wild well before last year's massacre
28:21at Bondi Beach,
28:22the language used by some politicians
28:25in the wake of the attack
28:26has sharpened towards Muslims.
28:36Militant Islam is a cancer
28:38that must be cut from our communities
28:41before it kills more of us.
28:44Radical Islamist extremism caused this.
28:47I think the Australian Muslim community
28:50has to take some responsibility
28:52for the behaviours we've seen exhibited
28:57over the last couple of decades.
29:01South Australian Liberal Senator Andrew McLaughlin
29:04thinks there's a danger in this hardline approach.
29:08I think it's extremely unhelpful
29:10for those of us that have long-standing relationships
29:15with the Muslim community.
29:18We need to give them reassurance
29:20they're not being singled out.
29:23I'm a veteran of Afghanistan.
29:25I have very strong ties to the Afghan community.
29:30They're devastated post-Bondi.
29:33They're Australians.
29:35They've come here to escape radicalisation.
29:42The issue of immigration
29:44is splintering the right side of politics.
29:47I've been leaked one of the proposals
29:49the Liberal Party is actively discussing,
29:52inspired by a recent UK Labor Party policy.
29:56If a country doesn't take back its citizens
29:58who've been rejected by Australia,
30:00then Australia would blacklist that country
30:03or potentially a zone within it
30:06and ban its citizens getting a visa here.
30:09This could include areas like parts of the Philippines
30:12which have, in the past, been hotbeds for terrorism.
30:16Some moderates in the party believe it goes too far,
30:19but we understand the new leader is considering it.
30:24We'll stand for an immigration policy
30:27that puts the interests of Australians first.
30:30And puts Australian values at the centre of that policy.
30:35If someone doesn't subscribe to our core beliefs,
30:40the door must be shut.
30:43If someone was to import the hatred and violence
30:46of another place to Australia,
30:48the door must be shut.
30:51So does that mean...
30:53..in our future...
30:53..you need to be careful about becoming One Nation light?
30:56Well, you know, we are not seeking to be One Nation light.
31:00Absolutely not, PK.
31:02But we respect the fact that those voters
31:05who might be thinking about One Nation
31:07have reasons for wanting to do so,
31:09and we have to restore their confidence in us.
31:16The world is changing, but making that worse is social media,
31:21which is pushing this outrage.
31:24For years, Charlotte Mortlock has led a group
31:27dedicated to getting more Liberal women elected.
31:30She resigned from that group
31:32and relinquished her Liberal Party membership
31:34after Susan Lee was deposed last week.
31:38She believes the populists are trying to appeal to the fringe
31:41and it won't work.
31:44One of the biggest things that I think's a problem
31:46is that we have politicians
31:48who have been completely algorithmed.
31:50We've always had the pub test,
31:52but people are replacing that with their social media feed
31:56and they are thinking that the world is a place that it is not
31:59and they are living in an alternative reality
32:01and the huge concern there
32:03is that they're creating public policy for that virtual reality.
32:07There's people in Australian politics
32:09on both the far left and the far right,
32:11they speak with such a conviction
32:13that they are so certain
32:15that they have the finger on the pulse.
32:17They have their finger on their social media algorithm.
32:30Supercharging the algorithm
32:31is conservative lobby group Advance.
32:34It's flooding social media
32:36with a fierce anti-immigration campaign.
32:42And promoting a nostalgic vision
32:44of a whiter Australia.
32:57Well, I think probably initially when it was set up,
33:01it was like, this is the rights version of GetUp.
33:05And that's awesome.
33:06We needed a vehicle like that.
33:08I just think that they have been very particular
33:12with who they're supporting
33:15and it's certainly not moderate Liberals.
33:19Hi, I'm Andrew Hastie.
33:20There is no doubt Andrew Hastie is their preferred man.
33:24In the cost of living crisis,
33:26the real people who I've heard
33:27live in the outer metro and regional areas.
33:31Advance launched in 2018,
33:34but it's only in the last few years
33:36that its donations have skyrocketed
33:38to more than $13 million last year.
33:42That's more than double the donations
33:44to left-wing activist group GetUp
33:46and on par with the Business Council of Australia.
33:50We're an independent grassroots movement
33:53and we're not affiliated or connected
33:55to any political party.
33:57Media tend to think we're some fringe group
34:00and that suits us just fine.
34:02We are happy to go underestimated.
34:06That's because over the last five years,
34:09we've been able to build a supporter base
34:11with serious back-end infrastructure
34:13to mount significant nation-changing campaigns.
34:17And we're doing it on a national scale,
34:20something that's never before been done in this country.
34:25Four Corners has confirmed
34:27that senior Liberal strategists
34:29are concerned Advance is cannibalising
34:32the donations that would come their way
34:34and that it's being helped by Liberals
34:37like Jacinta Namajibba-Price,
34:39who is a prominent speaker
34:40at Advance's Blockbuster conference this month.
34:43And in Australia,
34:45where we express national crime,
34:48not national guilt,
34:49like so many on the left field today.
34:58There's also internal anger
35:00that Advance has attacked Liberals
35:02it sees as having moderate views,
35:04including Susan Lee,
35:06Andrew Bragg
35:07and Tim Wilson,
35:09particularly given it received
35:11a $500,000 donation
35:13from a Liberal Party-linked fund,
35:16the Cormac Foundation.
35:20I don't think people should give any money
35:22to any organisation
35:23that campaigns against Liberal MPs
35:27unless their objective
35:28is to see Labor,
35:30Teal or Greens MPs elected.
35:32So I would dissuade anybody from doing that.
35:35I don't see that it serves any purpose.
35:40Andrew McLaughlin was targeted by Advance last year
35:44after he criticised the tone of debate
35:46around immigration.
35:51You criticised the term
35:52mass immigration.
35:53They're not the only ones using it, are they?
35:55No, I don't think the term should be used.
35:57The way Advance has been using it
35:59is even more controversial
36:01because it is designed specifically
36:04to create anxiety
36:07and from anxiety, fear,
36:09which is their business model
36:11that is unhealthy
36:12and no Member of Parliament
36:15from a major party
36:17should be sucked in
36:18to using that language
36:19because it's an abandonment
36:21of your position as a leader.
36:23It is just totally wrong,
36:26ethically and morally.
36:32Wow!
36:34What a great entrance.
36:37The latest donations
36:38to political parties
36:40and third parties
36:41were released this month
36:42and revealed
36:43billionaire mining figure
36:45Gina Reinhart
36:46donated $895,000
36:48to Advance last year
36:50through her company
36:51Hancock Prospecting.
36:53I'd also like to be
36:54a big thank you
36:55to Mrs Gina Reinhart.
36:58Reinhart has been a supporter
37:00of Pauline Hanson
37:01and One Nation for years.
37:06Gina Reinhart,
37:08how much is she behind
37:09One Nation?
37:10No, I don't see this
37:11as the other thing.
37:11People always have these ideas.
37:14It's a supporter,
37:15a philosophical journey person.
37:17Yeah, I'd say
37:18that would be a fair comment.
37:20Have you had conversations
37:21with Gina Reinhart
37:23about joining One Nation though?
37:25No, I haven't.
37:26The only...
37:27No, I haven't.
37:28See, there you go.
37:29Absolutely.
37:29See, there you go.
37:30Scoop?
37:30No.
37:32Has she ever asked me?
37:33Scoop?
37:34No.
37:34Have I ever said to her,
37:36I'm thinking about doing that?
37:37Scoop?
37:38No.
37:38Why not?
37:39Because it just hasn't.
37:41She certainly contacted me afterwards
37:43and said,
37:44oh, well, you know,
37:45good on you.
37:46But you know what?
37:47I've got my mailbox
37:49with hundreds and hundreds
37:51of emails
37:52saying good on you.
37:53So Gina did say
37:54good on you though?
37:55After I'd done it,
37:56yeah,
37:56but not before.
37:59Advance declined
38:00to be interviewed
38:01for this program
38:02but said,
38:03in our experience,
38:04people who run down Advance
38:06in the media
38:07always have an agenda
38:08of their own.
38:10Advance does not support
38:11any political party
38:12but will always encourage
38:14politicians
38:14whose values and ideas
38:16align with our supporters
38:17and criticise those
38:19who don't.
38:21There's been an attempt
38:23to silence and censor
38:25the membership of our party,
38:27including those who support Advance,
38:28because of the idea is
38:29that, oh no,
38:30the politicians know better.
38:31You guys are all just
38:33out of touch
38:34and you're extremists
38:36and you don't realise
38:37what it takes to win elections.
38:38You've got to let
38:38the professionals, guys,
38:40run the show.
38:41How's that worked out?
38:43How's that worked out?
38:44Having the professionals,
38:45the pollsters,
38:45in charge of our political strategy.
38:47An absolute disaster.
38:53I can tell you
38:54the small businesses
38:55in this country
38:56know exactly
38:57who is on their side.
38:58They know
38:59that the Liberal Party
39:00has always stood up
39:01proudly,
39:02backed them in
39:03and made sure
39:04the laws of this country
39:05say,
39:06chance your hand,
39:06go for your life,
39:08we back you
39:08because you back yourselves.
39:28in the heart
39:30of his seat
39:31of Goldstein,
39:32Tim Wilson
39:33is listening
39:33to the concerns
39:34of his constituents.
39:35I think one of the
39:36biggest problems
39:37we have,
39:37personally.
39:38He holds the
39:39inner Melbourne seat
39:40by a razor-thin margin
39:42after winning it back
39:44from teal independent
39:45Zoe Daniel
39:45last year.
39:52Hi,
39:52mate.
39:53Happy New Year.
39:54How's business?
39:56Can I grab
39:57a strong
39:59cappuccino,
40:00please?
40:00No, thanks.
40:03Hello,
40:03how are you?
40:04Tim Wilson
40:05is one of a
40:06determined band
40:07of Liberals
40:07who refuse to
40:08surrender the
40:09party's future
40:10to the populist
40:11right.
40:13You're one of the
40:14only urban
40:15Liberals
40:16left.
40:17That's it.
40:18There's not many.
40:22Is the direction
40:23the party
40:24is moving in
40:26palatable
40:27for your
40:29kind of
40:29constituents?
40:31Can you win
40:32without more
40:33of those
40:34urban seats
40:35and do you need
40:36to change
40:36direction?
40:37We can't win
40:39Australia
40:39if we don't
40:41win urban
40:42Australia.
40:42It's not about
40:43my preference,
40:44it's about a
40:45simple reality,
40:46one of the most
40:46urbanised
40:47countries on
40:48earth.
40:48And how do
40:49we do that?
40:49I don't believe
40:50that's by
40:51narrowing our
40:51base,
40:52I think it's
40:52by broadening
40:53it.
40:53The Liberal
40:54Party now
40:55holds just
40:56nine of the
40:57country's
40:5788 urban
40:58seats.
40:59It's lost
41:00six inner
41:01city seats
41:01to Teal
41:02Independents
41:03who campaign
41:04strongly for
41:05action on
41:05climate change.
41:07Now the
41:07coalition has
41:08dumped its
41:09support for
41:09net zero
41:10emissions,
41:10which could
41:11hurt it
41:12further in
41:12these seats.
41:19moderates
41:20are arguing
41:21for the
41:21party to
41:21return to
41:22a stronger
41:22policy on
41:23climate
41:24change.
41:28We'll not
41:29just argue
41:31the case,
41:31fight for the
41:32case,
41:32campaign for
41:33the case,
41:34win the
41:34argument and
41:35build a
41:36better future.
41:36Looks like
41:37you're not
41:37winning at
41:38the moment.
41:38Well I
41:39wouldn't
41:39quite look
41:39at it that
41:40way.
41:40I think
41:41every
41:41conversation
41:42has multiple
41:43steps in
41:44it.
41:44And I
41:45think one
41:45of the
41:46most important
41:46things is
41:47where the
41:48conversation is
41:49going next.
41:50We've had
41:51some debates
41:52and we've
41:53chosen to
41:54pivot on
41:54some
41:55conversations,
41:55but they're
41:56not over
41:56in terms of
41:58what additional
41:58policy may
41:59come next.
42:00Tim Wilson
42:01told me
42:02this isn't
42:03over, this
42:03needs to be
42:04revisited.
42:05Do you
42:05think that
42:05issue needs
42:06to be
42:06revisited?
42:07Yes, and
42:08I'm going to
42:09advocate
42:09continuously
42:10for it to
42:10be revisited.
42:11I'm worried
42:12about our
42:12commitment as
42:14it's perceived
42:14by the
42:14public to
42:15the
42:16environment.
42:16I'm concerned
42:18with the
42:19multicultural
42:20groups or
42:21community
42:21groups that
42:22I am
42:22involved with
42:23perceive a
42:25lack of
42:25compassion for
42:26those that
42:27settle in
42:28Australia.
42:29Well, I
42:29think at the
42:30moment the
42:30Liberal Party
42:30is a man
42:31drowning, not
42:32waving, and
42:33so their
42:34future is
42:34entirely
42:35dependent on
42:37shaping an
42:38economic
42:38narrative that
42:39appeals to
42:40those Liberal
42:40coded voters
42:41out there to
42:42grow their
42:43primary vote.
42:43But the
42:44danger for
42:44the Liberal
42:45Party is if
42:45it moves to
42:46the fringes,
42:47it will start
42:47getting fringe
42:48political results.
42:49There's simply
42:50no pathway back
42:51to government
42:51without winning
42:52some of those
42:52teal seats.
42:58Winning those
42:58inner city seats
43:00will be hard if
43:01the coalition is
43:01dependent on
43:02one nation to
43:03form government.
43:10you would be
43:12interested in being
43:13involved in a
43:14coalition government
43:15with the
43:16nationals and
43:16the Liberals?
43:17Of course.
43:18That's the only
43:19way to move
43:20forward because I'm
43:21not going to be
43:21government and
43:23either is by the
43:24looks of it,
43:25either is the
43:25coalition or the
43:26national party.
43:28Do you think the
43:29coalition could
43:30govern with one
43:31nation?
43:31No, we're not
43:32looking for any
43:33more dance
43:33partners.
43:34As you might
43:34have seen over
43:35the last nine
43:36months, we've
43:36had enough
43:37challenges managing
43:38our existing
43:39dance partner.
43:39I don't think
43:40we need a third
43:40one.
43:54The March for
43:55Australia rallies
43:56on Australia Day
43:57drew together an
43:58emboldened group of
43:59voters and an
44:01open display of
44:02support for a
44:03ruthless line on
44:05immigration.
44:10It's clear that
44:12messaging is working
44:13for One Nation's
44:14polling, but
44:16whether there's a
44:17limit on the
44:17number of votes
44:18issues like this
44:19will attract is the
44:20existential question
44:22facing the Liberal
44:23Party.
44:29I think the real
44:30debate is between
44:31those who think
44:32that we're just a
44:33little bit off and
44:34those who think
44:34we're a long way
44:35off.
44:35I think we've been
44:37a long way off for
44:38a little while now.
44:39And I think that's
44:39the real source of
44:40tension here.
44:41Do we just keep
44:41kind of just refining
44:43where we've been and
44:44making small changes?
44:46or are there some
44:47significant departures
44:49to how we've been
44:50working that we need
44:51to do?
44:52We've come to the
44:55long term under!
44:57Woo!
45:00So what is the future
45:02for the Liberal
45:02Party then?
45:02Is it going to live or
45:03die?
45:04The Liberal Party
45:05needs an NMR.
45:07But I think, you
45:08know, its future can
45:10be secured, but only
45:12if it pivots to that
45:13economic narrative
45:14and differentiates from
45:15Labor with some bold
45:17policies.
45:18The pathway back to
45:20the Liberal Party is
45:21not to keep on
45:21shadowing one nation
45:22with those policy
45:23agenda settings, but
45:25to offer some
45:26economic hope.
45:27And that might be in
45:29the form of income
45:30tax cuts, addressing
45:33some of the structural
45:34problems in the
45:34economy, to show
45:36that, you know, there
45:37is hope for the future
45:38because at the moment,
45:40you know, they're just
45:41creating and chasing
45:42noise.
46:15If you want to
46:15The Bay Area
46:16The Bay Area
46:17is a very important
46:17way toielen
46:17You are
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