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00:00Luke Morrow is in. Hey, Tyler, he's over here working on that, getting to that Final Four.
00:04He's working on that bracket now.
00:06That's a tease right there.
00:07Yeah, for those of y'all that just tuned in, Tyler and I gave our Final Four predictions,
00:11and we were the same other than I've got UConn, he's got Duke.
00:16The others were Michigan, Arkansas, and who?
00:20Those Cougs.
00:21There you go. That's what I'm talking about. Yes, sir.
00:24But Luke Morrow, he's got some kind of formula. He's over here.
00:28He's seriously working through it, man. Notes all over the back of it.
00:32Oh, I see that. What are you doing, algebra or something?
00:34No wonder I never win bracket challenges, Tyler.
00:37Hell, I ain't putting that kind of work into it. There is no doubt about that.
00:40Hey, make sure that you're listening during the 5 o'clock hour today, not just today,
00:46but all week long on the drive for a chance to win a four-pack of tickets
00:50to this year's Texas Children's Houston Open.
00:54It's going to be a big-time, big-time event.
00:56Tyler has been, I think, multiple times.
00:58What is this, year three or four for you and your brother or something?
01:01I think this is the third year in a row we're going out there, man.
01:03I'm excited. I can taste the transfusions already.
01:07Oh, there you go. Yeah.
01:08I mean, the weather ought to be nice.
01:10Oh, yeah.
01:10The weather ought to be nice.
01:12A couple of superstars on the PGA Tour are going to be out there,
01:16so you'll have plenty to follow and always.
01:17I mean, anybody that's swinging the sticks on that day is fun to watch.
01:21All right, there's two overall stats, boys,
01:25that I see coming out of spring training with our Astros
01:28that one of them's got me good and turned on,
01:30one of them's got me a tad bit worried.
01:32I'll be completely transparent this time of year.
01:34I don't watch spring training baseball.
01:37I rely heavily on the reports coming out of camp, the stats.
01:42Not typically a big stat guy,
01:43but when stats that are troublesome come out,
01:48then this time of year I've got to put a little stock in them.
01:53And there's two stats out there right now
01:55that I need my boy Luke Morrow to clear up for me.
01:59Should I worry? Should I not?
02:00Should I get excited? Should I not?
02:02And I'm going to start with the positive, right?
02:04I feel really good about the rotation right now, boys.
02:07We talked about this, I think, Monday on the show.
02:11Beyond Hunter Brown, about a month ago, beyond Hunter Brown,
02:15I was concerned that this was going to be another one of those years
02:18where, boy, we can have a pretty good rotation
02:20if Christian Javier bounces back from surgery
02:25and, you know, is more consistent.
02:29We have a really good start in rotation
02:31if Lance McCullers somehow finds the Lance McCullers
02:34from three, four years ago.
02:36Well, we can have a really good rotation
02:37if Spencer Arigeti takes that next step and is something else.
02:44Even, hell, there's three or four other guys that are down there
02:46that, boy, if this so-and-so, if Joe Blow can come back from injury
02:49and be what we expected him to be two years ago.
02:52A lot of ifs, ands, or buts.
02:55So, when I look up in a good bit into spring training,
03:00I see reports and stat lines like this right here.
03:04Hunter Brown, Mike Burrows, and Tatsuya M.
03:10Combined, those three starters, combined.
03:140.38 ERA, 23.1 innings, seven hits, one run, one earned, 31 Ks.
03:23When I start seeing something like that,
03:25the Astro fan in me gets real excited, Luke.
03:29The fact that our two and three starter are better than what ifs,
03:34can they stay healthy, can they be consistent?
03:38You know what I'm talking about, Javier, Eric Getty, McCullers.
03:40The fact that we're sitting in a spot right now,
03:42and it appears to me that Burrows and Emi are two,
03:48they're off to pretty damn good starts in spring training for the Astros
03:51and look to be pretty promising to be at the top of that rotation.
03:56As a fan, that gets me good and excited.
04:00I'm with you.
04:01I think you can buy into that.
04:02Well, just on the surface, even stats alone from spring training,
04:06I think your point is a good one in that, yeah,
04:08there's fewer question marks.
04:10And you can feel a little more comfortable.
04:12I think Burrows was a really good pickup.
04:13He's now another year removed from the arm surgery that kind of halted his whole career
04:18and slowed things down and made his numbers look a little worse.
04:21I think he's going to have a good year.
04:22So now you pair him and Hunter Brown at the top, as you said.
04:25And then I still have questions about Emi.
04:28I have questions how you pronounce his name, quite frankly.
04:30I still am not good at that.
04:32You're on the right show, brother.
04:33Yeah, you'll fit in here.
04:35Don't worry about it, man.
04:35But with that said, I have questions how he'll translate because that can always be a little iffy.
04:41It's just such a different game over here than it is in Japan.
04:44They throw far less over there.
04:46They don't throw in between starts.
04:47So it's just kind of getting situated.
04:48So I think from a numbers perspective to see, he's doing so well already.
04:52He's acclimating so well.
04:54I think it's promising as he adjusts to the Astros style and the American style of how they treat their
04:59pitchers.
05:00But the biggest thing statistically for these guys this time of year that you always want to look for is
05:04the strikeout and the walk ratio.
05:06That typically has the best correlation to regular season success as well.
05:12And for all these guys, I mean, they have almost three times as many strikeouts as walks.
05:17They have more strikeouts than innings pitched.
05:19So they're missing bats right now, which shows, you know, they're pretty sharp already this early on, which is good.
05:25The pitchers are always ahead of the hitters.
05:26But still, nonetheless, the metrics look pretty good on these guys on paper.
05:30And then also just, like I said, stepping away statistically, you should just take a little more solace in this
05:36rotation than, like you said, last year.
05:38All these question marks and hoping guys come back from injuries and what is McCullers going to have left?
05:42It's nice to not have to rely on, try to rely on Lance McCullers this year.
05:46They got a pretty good one, two, three punch at the top of the rotation right now.
05:51Well, it's a little easier to stomach the Javier, Ergetti, McCullers, you know, if, ands, or buts.
05:57It's easier to stomach those if you've got some pretty promising guys that look like they can feel the top
06:03of that rotation behind Hunter Brown.
06:05And it looks like, for what it's worth, that those guys are going to be okay in those particular roles.
06:11What's your thoughts while we're on it?
06:13What's your thoughts on Lance McCullers and kind of the change?
06:18I mean, I hated the one piece, bit of audio that came out that he was basically saying, oh, hey,
06:23if it don't work out, man, I'm good.
06:25I'm ready to go home and be with my kids kind of deal.
06:26I hate that.
06:27But just, it seems like there's been a shift in him mentally after his last outing.
06:32I mean, I think he's, he's, I mean, hell, he's not afraid to say it.
06:35I think he's saying, you know, I used to, used to, I would have pressed or used to, I would
06:39have done this.
06:40And he's doing something different.
06:41So what do you think about the Lance McCullers shift, at least from a mental perspective so far?
06:46Yeah, I remember being on the air on one of the shows when that audio came out.
06:50And so, you know, I thought that for him, it was kind of, obviously, last year, the last couple years
06:55have been really frustrating.
06:56And I think he's finally just kind of accepted that, you know, he's not where he once was.
06:59And he knows, I'll be honest, I think the only reason why he's still getting opportunities to begin with is
07:04just because of this contract that he has with the Astros.
07:06So I think he's realizing that, like, once this is, once this contract runs out, I don't think another team's
07:12going to take a shot on me.
07:13So this is kind of the last hurrah, the last ride, whether it works out or not.
07:17You certainly hope he can contribute to the team and have a good year.
07:20But if not, you know, then you play out the string of this deal.
07:23And so I think he's been able to wrap his mind around that this offseason, I would assume, in that,
07:29look, last year was not great for him once again.
07:30He had more injuries than victories.
07:33The numbers weren't all that spectacular.
07:35And so now going through this again, it's like, all right, here's the last chance.
07:39And then, you know, contract expires.
07:41I probably won't have any other opportunities.
07:42And I go home.
07:43So let's give it one last run.
07:44Hopefully he can stay healthy, have some success this year.
07:47But I think he sees the light at the end of the tunnel.
07:50How do you feel this rotation kind of rounds itself out beyond Hunter Brown, Mike Burroughs, and Tatsuya Imai?
07:57Yeah, so then you have Spencer Arrighetti, who should be in there.
08:01And he actually just returned here to Houston.
08:03His wife's going to have twins.
08:05She's doing it, twins.
08:06So he's going to be out now for a little while.
08:08But I would imagine still good to go for the start of the season, I would hope.
08:12And then, you know, then you have Javier, who has been questionable in spring training and this offseason.
08:18But if he's your five starter, that's not terrible.
08:22And then since they want to go with this six-man rotation, I mean, if McCullers is healthy, I guess
08:26you throw him out there.
08:27He's not going to pitch in the bullpen for whatever reason.
08:30So what else do you do with him?
08:31I guess he's your six starter.
08:33I've complained for multiple years now that I hate the six-starting rotation.
08:37I would want Hunter Brown out there as often as I can get him instead of carving out a spot
08:41for Lance McCullers at this point.
08:43But that ship has sailed.
08:45So I think currently I guess I would slot him as the six starter because if he's not, again, what
08:51else do you do with him?
08:51You're not going to send him down to the minors.
08:53He doesn't want to be in the bullpen.
08:54So you kind of just have to make a spot for him in the rotation.
08:57Any thoughts on the Ryan Weiss kid that's apparently rolling in – or God, I don't know if he's a
09:02kid or not,
09:03but that's apparently rolling in spring training as well.
09:05Yeah, he's pitching really well.
09:06I would start the year, have him be my long man in the bullpen and keep him stretched out,
09:10and then as soon as there is an issue in the rotation, slot him in.
09:14But, again, I think it's just that numbers thing of – me personally, I'd probably rather give him a starting
09:18spot in the rotation over McCullers.
09:20But it's just kind of that numbers game of like, well, what else do we do at Lance?
09:23And it's just by default we kind of have to make him a starter.
09:25And so then, you know, Weiss is on call.
09:28He's on deck that obviously you can't get through a full baseball season without some pitcher going down.
09:34And when that ultimately happens, he would be the one I'd slot in.
09:37But I would start him in the bullpen and keep him stretched out, pitching multiple innings at a time,
09:41so that whenever they do need a spot starter, he'd be that first call.
09:44Well, that's the stat and the convo that I feel really good about.
09:47I want to shift gears here a little bit.
09:49And the part that I'm concerned about is the bats, right?
09:54And not because the lineup itself, but to me it's more about the change from the hitting staff, if you
10:00will,
10:02and more specifically the approach.
10:04There's a stat out there, and I don't know if this is holding up, but I know it's a couple
10:07of days old.
10:08The Astros are the worst hitting team from an average perspective this spring at 192.
10:15And I've got to believe, I can't help but think, that that has a lot to do with being patient
10:20at the plate
10:22and working through some things.
10:24It's that patient at the plate.
10:25We heard it last year.
10:27We watched it not unfold other than Isak Paredes during the regular season.
10:32We heard it this offseason about, look, that's going to have to sink into this lineup's head or else.
10:39And now it seems like the numbers, I think walks are up.
10:43But the average seems to be struggling a bit there.
10:46Any concern that that change of approach, the change of coach at the top, any concern that that rolls over
10:54and affects this team's ability to swing the bat?
10:57A little bit.
10:57I did like the hire when they brought in the new hitting coach.
11:02And I do think, obviously, it's so early.
11:06I think it will work out.
11:08You never want to read too much into the spring training stuff on either side.
11:12And as I said earlier, pitchers are always ahead of the hitters, even at the start of the season.
11:15And so I think this will probably bleed into the regular season, the start of the season,
11:20to begin in April.
11:21But long-term, I'm not worried just yet because I do think it is so early.
11:26But I will say a couple things stand out statistically.
11:29Number one, as you said, being more patient, changing that approach.
11:32The Astros do actually have four guys in the top, like, 30 for most walks drawn in spring training.
11:38So I think that speaks to this, that this changing approach is showing up, good and bad, in the numbers.
11:44And maybe that is what is impacting the batting average.
11:47But just like I said earlier for pitchers, the best correlation from spring training to regular season success
11:52for pitchers is that strikeout and walk ratio.
11:55It's actually the same thing for hitters.
11:57This gets real nerdy, but if you look at the numbers, even, like, barrel rate does not transfer over
12:02as well as strikeouts and walks.
12:04Batting average does not transfer over.
12:05Strikeouts to walks is the one stat that remains most consistent from spring training
12:10to regular season statistically.
12:12And that's where I do have some concern for this Astros lineup.
12:14Because when you look at some of these hitters,
12:16Paredes has struck out in half of his at-bats so far.
12:19Altuve has struck out in more than a third.
12:21Pena has struck out in a third.
12:23Jordan has struck out in a third of his at-bats.
12:25League average is about 22%.
12:27So these guys are all above league average, and they're all above their career averages.
12:32And so that's where I get a little worried where, yes, it's only spring training.
12:35It is so early, and the pitchers are ahead of the hitters.
12:39But right now, these guys are striking out more than they ever have in their career.
12:42And that is the one indicator, like I said, the stat that correlates the best from spring
12:46training to regular season is your strikeout rate and your walk rate.
12:49And if they're striking out a lot now, they might strike out more than they typically do
12:53in the regular season, too.
12:54So that's where it is so early in this whole thing.
12:57But that is the one thing that does stand out that I am a little worried about the Astros lineup
13:02and how bad it's looked so far.
13:03I think the two biggest guys, when you talk about a different mindset at the plate,
13:07I think one, and far and away, I think it's blatantly obvious, is that's going to be a
13:12major shift for Altuve.
13:13I mean, Altuve is a come out of my cleats on the first pitch, no matter what it is,
13:18a good chunk of the time.
13:19Like, he's going to have to adjust that.
13:21I mean, if they want to implement it in an aggressive manner, which it sounds like they do.
13:28And then the other one for me, and I'd like to get your take on how you think that impacts
13:34these two big hitters for the Strohs.
13:36Altuve won.
13:37Jordan Alvarez is such a great hitter.
13:39Like, I don't know that I want anybody toying with anything Jordan does at the plate.
13:42Mentally, the approach.
13:43Yeah, it's true.
13:45I know.
13:45When you talk about these big-time hitters, Altuve as well, yeah.
13:48Like, what do you need to change?
13:49They've been so successful already.
13:51Like, who's coming in?
13:52You might make some finer touches.
13:54But how much are you really changing with these guys?
13:56And on a bigger scale, honestly, it's one of the things that I would complain about in
14:00baseball these days.
14:01The Minnesota Twins released their new coaching staff, the graphic on social media.
14:05This was going back before spring training, you know, a month or two ago.
14:08And now all these teams have these, like, three hitting coaches and two bench coaches
14:12and whatever, you know, two bullpen coaches.
14:16So many coaches now that even I worry about all just the different opinions and the different
14:20voices.
14:20This is, you're almost getting over-coached with all these guys.
14:23Back in the day, obviously, you had one hitting coach, one bench coach, one pitching coach.
14:26And you handled the whole team.
14:28And teams won World Series that way.
14:29It's hard to fathom.
14:30So I worry now with just all the different people coming in and pulling a guy different
14:34ways and trying these different approaches in today's analytical world.
14:38But to your overall question or point, yeah, I don't know how much you really want to
14:42change at this point in their careers when you're talking about guys like Altuve and
14:45Jordan.
14:45Just let them be.
14:46Yeah, I mean, there's a couple of them that I would rather just be left completely alone, which,
14:50look, I don't, maybe I'm, maybe I'm crazy to think they would ever even ask him to change.
14:53Now, look, I don't need, what, what was old buddy's name?
14:55No free swinging right fielder that they had that, that they brought in last year, last
14:59year.
14:59They just traded.
14:59Jesus Sanchez.
15:00Jesus Sanchez.
15:01I'm thinking when, when they traded for him, Luke, I remember seeing his first at bat
15:05and I was like, hell, so, I mean, I mean, so much for seeing pitches, quality pitches
15:08at the plate.
15:09I mean, hell, he's taking, he takes Altuve.
15:11I mean, I mean, he takes Altuve coming out of his shoes to a whole other level.
15:15He's a big guy doing it.
15:16So, um, I, I thought, I thought that was interesting.
15:19Now, another topic on the Astros is, is the, the obviously additional infielders, additional
15:24bats that they have.
15:25And I think it's put the Astros in a position where, um, last year it was Altuve learning
15:30how to play left field.
15:30This year it's, it's Jordan Alvarez is going to play left field more than, more than what
15:35they probably expected.
15:36Are you comfortable with Jordan Alvarez playing more left field?
15:38You like that?
15:39No.
15:39What do you think?
15:40Yes.
15:41My only concern is for the health, but statistically he's always played better when he's played the
15:45field.
15:45A lot of guys are like that, where they can stay in the game and stay loose instead of
15:49just waiting for your bat every three innings.
15:51So I think he's a better player when he plays the field, even though he's not a great outfielder.
15:54Health is the biggest concern, but I've said it before to me, like defense in baseball,
15:58to me, I know this will tick a lot of people off.
16:01Defense is overrated to me.
16:02Come on, preach.
16:02Put Altuve in left field.
16:03Hang on, piss this guy off.
16:04I'm in with you, brother.
16:05I'm right there with you.
16:06Yeah.
16:06Put Altuve in left field.
16:07Put Jordan out there, whatever, just to get the bats in the lineup.
16:10The Astros last year were the 10th worst defensive team in the league.
16:13They almost made the playoffs.
16:14The Red Sox led the league in errors last year and nearly won a playoff series.
16:17You know, they still made it.
16:18The Yankees were one of the best teams in the AL last year.
16:21They were bottom five in defense.
16:23Defense to me in baseball, if you can slug, you'll make up for that defense.
16:26So, the only concern for me is just the health of having Jordan out there, the same guy who
16:31got injured, trotting home.
16:34So, that's the biggest concern.
16:36But in terms of, like, your defense or how it impacts your starting nine, all that sort
16:41of stuff, I actually think it's better for the Astros just as long as he can stay healthy.
16:44We're on that front again with Jordan in left field.
16:47Like, I'm of the impression, because, I mean, our outfield has been such a turnstile over
16:51the years, is that, I mean, I've always thought that he's got a better arm than most of the
16:56guys that they're throwing out there.
16:57And he's good enough with the glove to be one of the better outfielders on this particular
17:01team.
17:02Yeah.
17:02That they're rotating through that.
17:04I mean, is he, I mean, from a, I know you don't, I'm with you.
17:07I'm 100% with you.
17:08I don't give a rip about defense either.
17:10Now, I don't want Altuve in left field.
17:11But I don't necessarily give a rip.
17:13What I like about Jordan in left field is it's twofold.
17:16I do think he's one of your better three or four outfielders defensively, especially he's
17:20got an arm to where he can at least threaten to throw somebody out.
17:23Right?
17:23And then, number two, it solves your problem of being able to get Paredes bat in the lineup
17:29or get that, get that full fifth infielder bat in the lineup when everybody's healthy.
17:35So, that's, that's really where I'm at.
17:37Like, if you had the luxury, which, by the way, I think the Astros need to get out of the
17:41luxury business, you ain't that team anymore.
17:44But if you had the luxury to just say, hey, man, we got everything figured out and the
17:49D8 slot is Jordan's and he's not going to play outfield, then I'd be all about, hey,
17:53man, get the big fella off his feet.
17:54But the reality of it is, is that one move, I think, solves two of your bigger problems.
18:01It frees up D8 so you can get your best lineup on the field night in, night out.
18:05And it's one of your better left fielders on the team, at least, from a defensive perspective.
18:11And so, you're not throwing, again, Altuve out there, who I think I'd tag up from third
18:15on his ass right now at 48.
18:17I think I could tag up at third.
18:18Tyler, you think you could tag up on a, let's say, an average fly ball to left field, Altuve.
18:24Can you tag up from third and make it?
18:25Oh, with these badass knees I got, I got to say no, unfortunately.
18:29Do you think it'd be close?
18:30Yes.
18:31Remember, they can't block the plate anymore, so you can just all out Pete Rose slide that.
18:34If it's just one time, I'm giving it my all, I'm putting my athleticism on display, yes,
18:39it'd be close.
18:40But this right knee, man.
18:42Yeah, I think Jordan gives us a shot in left field to throw at least Tyler out at home plate.
18:46So, uh.
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