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Asteroids are flying past us all the time but sometimes, one gets a little too close for comfort. In 2024, astronomers spotted YR4, a city-killer asteroid big enough to level a major metropolis. Early calculations showed it had a real chance of hitting Earth. Then, the threat shifted. Now, we know it won't hit us but it might be headed for the Moon instead. Animation is created by Bright Side.
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This video is made for entertainment purposes. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, safety and reliability. Any action you take upon the information in this video is strictly at your own risk, and we will not be liable for any damages or losses. It is the viewer's responsibility to use judgement, care and precaution if you plan to replicate.
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00:00That tiny dot in the sky is an asteroid called 2024 YR4, and it gave scientists a serious scare.
00:11Early projections showed a 2.3% chance that it could hit Earth.
00:16That might sound small, but for an object big enough to wipe out a city, it was enough to raise
00:22alarms.
00:23Now, there's good news and bad news.
00:26The good. It's no longer on a collision course with our planet.
00:30The bad. It might be heading for the moon instead.
00:34Astronomers first spotted it in the El Sos Observatory in Chile back in December 2024.
00:41Judging by how bright it appeared, they estimated its size to be somewhere between 130 and 300 feet wide.
00:49That's about the size of a football field.
00:52If something this big hit Earth, it could be truly catastrophic.
00:56I mean, not on the level of the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, but still enough to destroy an
01:02entire city, depending on where it lands.
01:05Drop it over Paris, London, or New York, and you're looking at complete devastation across the city and nearby areas.
01:13That's why it was considered one of the most dangerous space rocks to ever come near us.
01:18It makes total sense that this asteroid became a bit of a celebrity.
01:22From the moment it was discovered up until February 2025, the risk of a collision just kept climbing.
01:28But now, we can breathe a little easier.
01:31New calculations from NASA have completely ruled out any chance of impact.
01:36In fact, there's no serious threat from this asteroid for at least the next 100 years.
01:42Okay, but how did we go from this is a threat to, oops, we were wrong?
01:47That happens quite often, actually.
01:49I mean, an asteroid seems risky at first, then it gets even riskier, and then, out of nowhere, it's suddenly
01:55safe.
01:56Does that mean we can't trust their math?
02:00You see, the first time specialists spot an asteroid, it's really just a tiny dot of light in the sky.
02:07At that point, they have no idea what it is or where it's headed.
02:11Then, they have to observe it again and do some math.
02:15That will help them figure out the path they're moving on.
02:17But even then, it's still a bit uncertain.
02:20They don't really know where the asteroid is going, so the risk corridor is this huge area where it could
02:27fly through.
02:27If any part of that corridor crosses Earth, the asteroid is considered a threat.
02:33Usually, at least three observations are needed to figure out its orbit.
02:38Basically, how fast it's moving and where it's headed.
02:41A lot of times, as they start to get a clearer picture, the risk zone still overlaps with Earth, so
02:47it looks more dangerous at first.
02:49But typically, as they keep tracking it, the risk zone gets smaller and moves away from Earth.
02:54And suddenly, the risk drops.
02:56And they keep narrowing down the uncertainties until they can confidently say,
03:01Relax, y'all. It's not heading for Earth.
03:04And that's exactly what happened to just our famous 2024 YR-4.
03:10So, we can all relax a bit now, right?
03:13Yeah, we know that 2024 YR-4 won't hit us.
03:17But it could end up crashing into the moon instead.
03:21At first, projections said there was a 1.7% chance of that happening in 2032.
03:27But recently, that number has gone up a little to 3.8%.
03:34If it does hit the moon, though, it won't be dangerous for us.
03:37I mean, there won't be any shockwaves felt here on Earth, and the moon isn't going to crack in half.
03:43Experts say nothing really shocking or concerning would happen.
03:47But it would be an awesome opportunity to see a lunar impact.
03:51If we're lucky, we might even catch the exact moment it happens.
03:55And if we miss it, we will still get to observe a brand new crater on our natural satellite.
04:01Such events are pretty common for the moon, since it doesn't have an atmosphere to protect it from incoming debris.
04:08In fact, there are hundreds of detectable impacts each year.
04:12See those bright spots lighting up?
04:15These are real images of asteroids hitting the moon.
04:19But specialists aren't just sitting around and waiting.
04:22They've been keeping an eye on lunar impacts for years.
04:25For example, the European Space Agency has a project called Naliota,
04:30where they use a powerful telescope in Greece to track these impacts.
04:35They've recorded over 100 tiny explosions from space rocks hitting the moon.
04:42They also have the Lumio mission,
04:45which is a small satellite that counts lunar impact flashes on the far side of the moon,
04:50the side we can't see from Earth.
04:52These observations help scientists understand how often the moon gets hit
04:57and how this might affect astronauts and lunar bases.
05:02Now, 2024 YR-4 might be a special case.
05:06That's because most space objects that collide with the moon are really small.
05:12We've never seen a collision with something larger than about 160 feet.
05:17If YR-4 does hit, it could be an amazing sight.
05:21So yeah, scientists are kind of hoping it happens.
05:25But 2024 YR-4 isn't the only asteroid on the radar.
05:29There are actually quite a few others that have been classified as potentially hazardous.
05:35In simple terms, that means this one might cause us some trouble.
05:41You see, there are millions of big space rocks out there in the solar system,
05:45mostly chilling in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
05:49But only a few ever get close to Earth, and even fewer actually pose any real risk.
05:55NASA calls asteroids that orbit within 30 million miles of Earth near Earth objects.
06:00And within that group, there's a smaller bunch of really big ones that orbit super close to us.
06:06If one of those were to hit us, it could be a big deal.
06:11There are about 2,500 of those asteroids at least that we know of.
06:17But here's the good news.
06:19Specialists don't expect any of them to hit Earth anytime soon.
06:23A few might come pretty close though, or already have, like the 2014 TN-17.
06:29An asteroid that's about 540 feet wide.
06:34It got pretty close to us in March 2025, zipping by just 3.2 million miles from Earth.
06:40That's roughly 13 times further than the Moon.
06:43So yeah, not exactly close, right?
06:46But when you think about the vastness of the universe, it's actually kind of near.
06:51In fact, that was the closest this asteroid has come to Earth in nearly 300 years.
06:58Thankfully, nothing happened, and that asteroid has already drifted away from Earth again.
07:03But it's not like you need to lose sleep over asteroids that could hit our planet.
07:07Little asteroids enter Earth's atmosphere every single day.
07:11It's the big ones we worry about, like the ones you see in Hollywood movies, like Armageddon.
07:17But asteroids like that are being constantly monitored.
07:20All the objects we know of today have zero or one chance of impacting Earth.
07:25And if things change, there are a few strategies that could be used to save humanity from an impact.
07:32Take the DART mission, for example, which happened in 2022.
07:37This was NASA's first test of planetary defense.
07:40They successfully managed to deflect an asteroid off its course using a spacecraft.
07:45In this case, the asteroid didn't pose any threat to Earth, but it was the perfect test subject.
07:52There are also more experimental ideas out there.
07:55For example, lasers could vaporize part of an asteroid to create a thrust effect, pushing it off course.
08:02Another idea is the gravity tractor.
08:05A big spacecraft that slowly tugs the asteroid away using its own gravitational pull.
08:11But all of these are still just ideas for now.
08:14If we can't pull any of those off, authorities would probably still have enough time to evacuate the impact zones.
08:21So yeah, I wouldn't stress too much about an asteroid impact.
08:29Ooh, that quick flash.
08:31Did you see it?
08:31That's an object smashing into the moon at unbelievable speed.
08:35And what makes it so special is that we almost never catch lunar impacts in real time.
08:41We still don't know what exactly hit it, but scientists think it might be linked to the Phaethon asteroid,
08:48one of the strangest, most mysterious objects we know of.
08:51This impact happened on December 12, 2025.
08:55Andrew Marshall Lee, a final-year PhD student, was doing a late shift at the Arman Observatory and Planetarium in
09:03Northern Ireland.
09:04He was working with the Arman Robotic Telescope, the newest and most advanced one there.
09:10Everything seemed normal at first.
09:12The moon was just sitting quietly on his screen.
09:15But then, around 3 in the morning, something unexpected happened.
09:20He saw a flash.
09:22That was the impact of a small object hitting the moon.
09:25The team is still trying to pin down its exact size, but they think it was no bigger than 2
09:31inches across,
09:32which is about the size of a golf ball.
09:34And this object was moving insanely fast, at about 22 miles per second.
09:40To give you an idea, it's more than 100 times faster than a commercial jet.
09:45And yeah, I get it.
09:47When you watch the video, it's only a quick blink.
09:49It's not exactly thrilling.
09:51But the fact that Marshall Lee caught the exact moment it happened is actually super rare.
09:57And that's what makes this one such a big deal.
10:00It's the first video recording of a lunar impact flash in Ireland,
10:04and only the second one ever recorded from the United Kingdom.
10:08But just because it's rare to see that kind of event happen,
10:12that doesn't mean impacts on the moon are rare.
10:14It's actually the total opposite.
10:17We have a huge advantage on Earth, our atmosphere.
10:20It works like an invisible shield.
10:22It slows down incoming space debris.
10:25And it can even burn a lot of it up before it reaches the ground.
10:29But the moon doesn't have that kind of protection.
10:31So our poor natural satellite gets hit all the time by asteroids and meteorites.
10:37The good news is, most of what hits it is tiny, no bigger than little specks of dust.
10:43Now, if we talk about slightly bigger ones, we can look at some rough numbers.
10:47Scientists think around 100 space rocks the size of ping-pong balls hit the moon every single day.
10:54That adds up to roughly 36,000 in a year.
10:58So it's kind of strange that we don't capture these impacts more often.
11:02But the explanation is actually pretty simple.
11:05As we mentioned earlier, these space rocks are usually tiny.
11:09And if a ping-pong ball already looks small here on Earth,
11:13imagine something that size flying through the huge emptiness of space.
11:18We can say it's basically invisible.
11:21That's why we usually can't spot them with a telescope.
11:24They're too faint for that.
11:25But the moment one of these little objects hits the moon at a crazy high speed, everything changes.
11:32The energy from the impact turns into heat and light.
11:35It blasts and melts a bit of the surface.
11:38And for a split second, it makes a bright flash that we can see from Earth.
11:43And there's one more problem.
11:45The moon is huge!
11:47Impacts can happen anywhere on its surface.
11:49So it's almost impossible to keep a telescope pointed at the exact spot where the next big hit will happen.
11:56So, most of the time, scientists don't catch lunar impacts with their own eyes.
12:02What usually happens is that they record the moon for hours,
12:06run all that footage through some software,
12:08and the program flags it if a flash shows up.
12:11But in Marshall Lee's case,
12:13he just happened to be looking at the screen at exactly the right moment.
12:17And he saw it happen live.
12:19Now you get how lucky he was, right?
12:22For now, the team has a pretty good idea of the space rock's size and speed.
12:27But it's still hard to say exactly what it was or where it came from.
12:32Their best guess is that it was linked to the Geminid meteor shower,
12:36which happens in December.
12:38And that actually makes sense.
12:40Lunar impacts are more likely to be spotted during big meteor showers,
12:44when the moon passes through streams of leftover space debris.
12:48So, this could be one of those moments where the timing was just perfect.
12:53Now, the Geminid meteor shower is tied to one of the strangest space objects we know of,
12:59called Phaethon.
13:00It's labeled an asteroid, but it certainly doesn't behave like a normal one.
13:05You see, when Phaethon gets close to the sun,
13:07it brightens up and even forms a tail, just like a comet.
13:11But its tail isn't made of dusty material the way comet tails usually are.
13:16According to NASA, its tail is made of sodium gas.
13:20That's why scientists are not totally sure what to call it.
13:24So, for now, Phaethon is officially listed as an asteroid.
13:28But a very weird one.
13:30Anyway, this strange object swings closer to the sun every December.
13:35And when the heat gets intense, Phaethon starts shedding tiny bits of rock.
13:40When those little pieces dive into Earth's atmosphere,
13:43they burn up and make bright streaks across the night sky.
13:47At the peak of the Geminid shower,
13:49people can spot up to 120 meters an hour under perfect conditions.
13:54The Geminids are usually bright and fast,
13:56and they often look a bit yellow.
13:58Of course, not all of those pieces hit Earth.
14:02Some misses completely,
14:03and a few end up hitting the Moon instead.
14:06And that's probably what Marshall Lee saw that night.
14:09Now, even though the impact wasn't huge,
14:12flashes like this are still really useful for science.
14:16Astronomers use them to estimate how often the Moon gets hit by small space rocks.
14:20And once they know that,
14:22they can make better guesses about how many bigger asteroids are out there,
14:26the kind that could make it through Earth's atmosphere and cause real damage.
14:31And sightings like this matter for the future, too, especially for space travel.
14:36Space agencies want to build bases on the Moon,
14:39and the goal is to make it a place where people can stay and work, not just visit.
14:43The Moon is our closest neighbor in space,
14:46so it's a great place to learn new things and try out new tools.
14:50It's also the perfect practice ground for bigger missions later on,
14:54like sending humans to Mars.
14:57NASA, for example, is working on something called Artemis Base Camp.
15:02The plan is a small base near the Moon's south pole,
15:05with places for astronauts to live and work,
15:07plus a rover that can travel farther from where they land.
15:10NASA also has plans for the Lunar Gateway,
15:14a small space station that would orbit the Moon
15:17and help crews and supplies move between Earth and the Moon's surface.
15:21There's also the International Lunar Research Station program.
15:25Its goal is to build a long-term research base on the Moon,
15:29starting with robotic missions that land first
15:32and prepare the area before people arrive.
15:35The program focuses on using local resources,
15:38such as ice in the Moon's soil,
15:41to produce water, oxygen, and other supplies needed for life.
15:45By staying on the Moon for longer periods,
15:48scientists hope to learn how humans can live and work far from Earth
15:51and use this experience to prepare for future missions to Mars and beyond.
15:56So, keeping an eye on these impacts and learning more about them
16:00could actually help us build a safer future beyond Earth.
16:04The more we understand how often these hits happen,
16:07and how strong they are,
16:09the better we can plan and protect future lunar bases.
16:12In a way, that tiny flash on the Moon isn't just a cool moment on a screen.
16:17It's a small warning,
16:19and a useful lesson for what comes next.
16:22That's it for today.
16:23So hey, if you pacified your curiosity,
16:26then give the video a like and share it with your friends.
16:28Or if you want more,
16:29just click on these videos and stay on the bright side!
16:32.
16:32.
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