00:01Oof, okay, big relief. 2024 YR-4 isn't going to hit Earth and wipe out entire cities.
00:09But this huge asteroid could still hit the moon by 2032. The impact could blast a massive cloud
00:16of dust and debris into space, putting satellites and astronauts at risk. So NASA is now considering
00:23a bold Armageddon-style solution to blow it up. This asteroid was first discovered back in 2024,
00:32thanks to the Atlas Survey Telescope in Chile. Now, its official name is 2024 YR-4, but hey,
00:40let's just call it Nugget for short. So Nugget is huge, about 200 feet across,
00:46which is like a 15-story building. If something that big hit Earth, it would be catastrophic.
00:54It could wipe out major cities like London, Paris, or New York. And if it hit the ocean,
01:00it could trigger massive tsunamis. Now imagine the scientists surprised when they ran to numbers
01:07and realized that, wait, there's a real chance it could hit Earth. And at one point, the odds were
01:12about 3%. Now, that doesn't sound like much, but with city-destroying potential, you want that
01:19number at zero, right? That's how this big guy became the first asteroid to trigger a coordinated
01:25international planetary defense response. Thankfully, by March 2025, space agencies had
01:33enough data to rule out an Earth impact. In fact, there's no serious threat from this asteroid for
01:38at least the next 100 years. So that's the good news. But then, a new problem showed up.
01:45It might hit the moon. New projections say there's a 4% chance that it could hit our natural satellite
01:53in
01:53December 2032. The scary part is that the odds might actually be higher, maybe a lot higher. And we
02:00might not know for sure until there's barely any time left to do anything about it. Because right now,
02:07Nugget is simply too far away to study any further. It's hidden from our view, and scientists say we
02:14won't be able to spot it again until June 2028. And only then will space agencies be able to take
02:21new observations and confidently figure out whether the asteroid will or, much more likely, won't hit
02:28the moon. But what if they actually find out that Nugget is actually on a collision course? I mean,
02:34should we intervene? Well, some scientists think we should. After all, it could still be dangerous
02:41for astronauts. And it could even knock out stuff we rely on down here, like the internet, cell service,
02:48and GPS. If this asteroid did collide with the moon, the impact would be so huge that it would likely
02:55be
02:56visible from Earth. But honestly, no one knows what exactly would happen. And there's a reason for
03:02that. When small space objects hit Earth's atmosphere, they usually burn up. But the moon
03:09doesn't have that kind of shield. So it gets smacked all the time by asteroids and meteorites.
03:17Estimates show about 100 space rocks hit it every single day. And most are tiny, basically the size of
03:24ping-pong balls. But an asteroid the size of Nugget is a whole different story. Actually,
03:31it's really rare for something that big to hit the moon. And it only happens about once every 4 to
03:365,000
03:37years. And it's even rarer that we know about it ahead of time. So scientists will probably run a lot
03:44of detailed computer simulations over the next few years to see what might happen. But they're already
03:50pretty sure the impact would leave a brand new crater on the moon, roughly 3,000 feet wide.
03:58And right after Nugget hits, the blast would kick up a massive spray of regolith into space.
04:03By that, I mean the dust and small rocks covering the moon. The problem is, we wouldn't be able to
04:09predict ahead of time exactly how much material would get launched into space. Or whether any of it
04:15would reach Earth. Some say the number of tiny space rocks hitting us could jump to 1,000 times
04:22the usual level. And that could last for a few days. On the bright side, an event like this could
04:28turn
04:28into one of the best meteor showers ever. But here's the problem. It wouldn't just look cool.
04:35It could be really dangerous for astronauts on the ISS and other space stations.
04:41It could mess with satellites and turn into a real headache for all of us down here. And yeah,
04:47we definitely don't want that. So scientists are working on a plan to make sure Nugget doesn't
04:52hit the moon at all. And when it comes to stopping a collision like this, there are really only two
04:59options. Deflect the asteroid or destroy it. Ideally, you just want to deflect it. The idea is to give this
05:08asteroid a little push so it changes its trajectory and doesn't hit the moon. And the earlier you do
05:14it, the smaller that push has to be. But this method comes with a catch. To deflect Nugget accurately,
05:22we first need to know how much it weighs. And that's harder than it sounds, because estimates of
05:27its mass depend on its density, which is tough to figure out from that far away. The asteroid could weigh
05:34anywhere from 51 million to over 711 million kilograms. And depending on where it falls in
05:42that range, the energy needed to nudge it the exact right amount could be completely different.
05:48And the problem is that if a deflection mission is based on the wrong mass estimate, you could
05:54accidentally nudge it the wrong way. That could make the problem worse, including, in the worst-case
05:59scenario, redirecting it toward Earth. So yeah, maybe we should just drop that idea.
06:06And scientists basically agree. Which brings us to option number two, destroy it. Now, there are two
06:13ways to do that. The first is using kinetic energy. Basically, you hit it with something big and heavy
06:19enough to break it into smaller chunks. We've actually seen this kind of idea work. NASA's DART
06:25mission showed that, yes, you can change an asteroid's trajectory by crashing a spacecraft into it.
06:32But crashing into a huge space rock with the real goal of destroying it? Well, that's a whole
06:37different level of difficulty. Maybe we'll have the tech to do that by 2030. Maybe we won't.
06:44The second way to destroy an asteroid is something called a height of burst. So basically, you set off
06:51a nuclear device close to the asteroid, just above the surface. NASA studies say a one megaton nuclear
06:58blast would be enough to destroy Nugget, no matter what size or how heavy it is. We have never actually
07:05tested a nuclear detonation in space specifically to deflect an asteroid before. But the physics says
07:12it can work. So at this point, it's not just a technical call, it's more like a big global decision.
07:19Authorities still need to figure out if it's worth doing all this for this particular threat.
07:24And remember, for now, there's still a 96% chance this asteroid doesn't hit the moon. So we just have
07:32to wait a few years until it comes back into view to update these numbers. All of these plans are
07:37still
07:38just possible scenarios that space agencies are talking through. And any final decision would be
07:44made over the next few years. The timing would be pretty tight, though. If they want to be ready
07:49for 2032, a nuclear mission would have to launch sometime between late 2029 and 2031.
07:57Now, even if Nugget never hits anything, tracking its trajectory and thinking through how we'd stop it
08:04is still a really valuable test run for planetary defense. And keeping an eye on threats like this
08:10is only getting more important, especially as space agencies move closer to building bases on the moon
08:15where astronauts would live and work. The United States plans to start launching regular missions
08:22to the moon before NASA eventually heads to Mars. China has similar plans, too, and has said it wants
08:29to land its astronauts on the moon by 2030. That's why we need sharper tools and better prediction,
08:36so everyone can stay safe up there in the future. Then, hopefully, Nugget, or any asteroid like it,
08:43never becomes a threat to us.
08:48That's it for today. So hey, if you pacified your curiosity, then give the video a like and share it
08:53with your friends.
08:54Or if you want more, just click on these videos and stay on the bright side!
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