00:00Is the market behaving the way it should given the severity of this or is it still underpricing
00:04certain risks? I mean if we keep the Straits of Hormuz closed or shut for a couple of weeks
00:10I don't think we're priced yet either in terms of commodity prices or in terms of the implication
00:15of higher commodity price across bonds and equity markets on this front basically. But I mean the
00:21Straits of Hormuz and again there's almost a self-imposed moratorium is that a lot of ships
00:24just won't go that way. Yeah I mean at the end of the day that's that and but there is
00:31a sense that
00:31there's risk going through that so and it is also not an endless conflict in that sense so there's
00:37pressure from the Chinese for that passage to become safe again so it's not an endless that's
00:42probably why the market is not going all the way as far as the price three or four weeks of
00:47a blocked
00:48passage from there but if that risk materialized without price fully for that. And Temos I mean
00:53because there's no warrants you know no end in sight of this war you really see expectations
00:58of inflation going up. Is that again through the right lens because you know a war could I don't
01:03know whether we're talking about a couple of months a couple of years or how you view that
01:07and the impact it has on inflation and therefore you know what central bank reaction function. I think
01:13the markets are particularly the bond markets are focused on inflation here now. I'm not sure that
01:17this is the most pressing angle. We have been through bigger terms of trade bigger price shocks. We've had
01:22tariff shocks. We have had natural gas prices go to 300. There has been you know the economies have seen
01:29through these shocks in a bigger way. But there are two main angles here that I think the market is
01:35trying to
01:35also oscillate around. The first one is don't forget we entered this situation the market selling U.S. assets and
01:42buying European assets diversifying away. Now it is reminded of the big vulnerabilities that the European continent has in terms
01:51of
01:51reliance to energy to from the most dangerous locations on the planet. The other angle here is that
01:59obviously when that resolves when the situation resolves we could be also in a better place. So the market is
02:05trying to
02:05oscillate between what they want to buy for resolution and where they want to get insurance for an energy shock
02:11hitting the hardest.
02:12.
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