00:00Well, input costs are probably going up for people who use petroleum, so I want to start there with, obviously,
00:06the Iran war just started.
00:08But what's your gut feel about how that's going to impact prices and the economy?
00:15I don't have any sense on how long it's going to take or what the implications are going to be.
00:19Obviously, you watch oil prices.
00:21While the U.S. is no longer a net importer, it's still the case that the price at the pump
00:26matters a lot
00:27in terms of sentiment, in terms of crowding out other spending.
00:30And so I'm just watching prices at the pump.
00:33They've jumped up over the last week.
00:35You can see that when you drive around.
00:37But, of course, no one knows whether this is going to be short-term or long-term, and so we'll
00:41just see where it goes.
00:42Well, back in the 1970s, we had the oil price shock, and we had gas lines, and people were miserable
00:47and having to pay all this money.
00:48And so the Fed eased into that.
00:50That turned out to be a mistake.
00:52Does this put on hold ideas for the time being of continuing to cut rates?
00:57Well, I think we'll go meeting by meeting, and we'll see what we see when we get there.
01:02You know, gas prices, obviously, if they're up, that is inflationary.
01:07Textbook monetary policy would be you look through a short-term shock, but you don't look through a long-term
01:11shock.
01:12And I think that's a lot of the assessment people are going to have to make.
01:15podcasts.
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