00:00But Iraq has also been dragged into this widening regional war from the very start, not by choice, but by
00:07geography and politics.
00:08Attacks are launched across its land by the US, Iran and militias, while the state itself isn't in control of
00:15those decisions.
00:16But with the country now effectively a battlefield shaped by others, it's brought the question of Iraq's sovereignty once again
00:22into the spotlight.
00:24Zina Sykes has more.
00:27Caught in the crossfire from both sides, Iraq is treading a particularly fine line amid war in the Middle East.
00:35Hosting US interests and Iran-backed militia groups, it is the only country facing strikes from both Washington and Tehran.
00:43Since the beginning of the war, Iran-backed militia groups and Tehran's Revolutionary Guard Corps have carried out nearly daily
00:50drone and missile attacks against American interests across the country.
00:56including military bases in Baghdad and Erbil airports, as well as diplomatic facilities.
01:02These images show the US embassy being targeted in the Iraqi capital.
01:07The autonomous Kurdistan region, home to American troops and a US consulate, has also been a significant target, as well
01:15as oil fields and energy infrastructure.
01:17The Iran-backed Iraqi militias unite under the loose alliance of the Islamic resistance and have vowed to defend Tehran.
01:26Meanwhile, their bases across the country have been pounded by airstrikes.
01:33Anti-U.S. and Israel charts were heard as hundreds of people mourn the deaths of members of the Popular
01:39Mobilization Forces killed in an airstrike last week.
01:43The US and Israel have not announced launching airstrikes in Iraq, but have been accused of doing so.
01:49Iraq's government has told the US that it should not be used as a launch pad for attacks for the
01:54war in the Middle East.
01:56Iraq, long a proxy battleground between the US and Iran, faces pressure to maintain neutrality, with different political groups supporting
02:04closer ties to both sides.
02:07An internal division that is being exacerbated by the ongoing war in Iran.
02:11If it lasts, Iraq is at risk of political paralysis and economic downfall, which could unravel the country's hard-fought
02:19relative stability.
02:22I'm going to cross live now to the United States and join Syed Al-Ali, who is a visiting fellow
02:28at Princeton University.
02:30Syed, great to talk to you. Thank you for joining us on the programme.
02:33As we saw in that report, Iraq looks increasingly unable to control what happens inside its own borders with strikes
02:41and influence from the US, Iran and those militia groups.
02:45In your opinion, is Iraq truly a sovereign country at this point?
02:51Well, thanks for having me.
02:53Iraq is a sovereign country by almost all measures, but it remains highly vulnerable to external influence.
03:02There are political groups and armed groups in Iraq that have a strong political and historical connection to Iran and
03:11that feel that they should act on Iran's behalf when Iran is attacked or support Iran when Iran is attacked.
03:19And at the same time, the United States has very significant room to manoeuvre in Iraq without necessarily consulting with
03:27the Iraqi state authorities.
03:29I mean, those are two big caveats, obviously.
03:33But at the same time, I think it would be a gross exaggeration to say that Iraq isn't sovereign.
03:39There's a sovereign government, there's a sovereign state, there's a parliament, and it functions just about just like any other
03:45state with those two big caveats granted.
03:48However, it does remain a sovereign state, sure.
03:50Well, how much responsibility do you think the US and Iran truly bear for Iraq's current instability?
03:57And how much is its own system that is at fault?
04:03Well, Iraq's system is suitable for its own internal needs in the sense that it's a parliamentary system, which is
04:11suitable for Iraq because the presidential system would be absolutely disastrous for the country.
04:15But at the same time, because it's parliamentary, what it means is that you have a plethora of small political
04:20groups in the country that are that populate the parliament and they cater to narrow political interests.
04:27And some of those political interests are very loyal to foreign interests, very loyal or connected to foreign interests.
04:33And so what that means is that whenever you have a parliamentary election, you have to form a government.
04:38The government needs confidence, so therefore has to go to parliament.
04:41And what that means is that whoever wants to be prime minister has to try to form an alliance with
04:47a whole variety of political groups.
04:50Almost none of which see eye to eye, particularly on issues relating to foreign policy.
04:54I mean, that's really the main dividing line in Iraq.
04:56We don't really have left wing or right wing groups, but we do have divisions in the country when it
05:00comes to foreign policy.
05:02And so, therefore, what that means is that you typically have governments that don't have clear national policies and that
05:09are really incoherent when it comes to foreign policy.
05:13And the government, therefore, just tries to straddle between US-aligned interests and Iranian-aligned interests.
05:19And for the most part, it's been successful in trying to muddle through that incoherence.
05:25But at times of acute crisis like we have now, it becomes increasingly difficult and creates an internal crisis for
05:32Iraq, which we're currently going through, which may end up intensifying over the coming period.
05:37Well, Saeed, in your opinion, what would it take realistically for the prime minister, Prime Minister al-Sudani, to reassert
05:44control over the country?
05:46Or is that impossible at this point, given those strikes?
05:51I don't know if it's impossible, but it's going to be a huge challenge.
05:55I mean, Prime Minister al-Sudani isn't the prime minister currently.
05:57He's the incumbent caretaker prime minister.
06:00We had an election just a couple of months ago, and he's currently in the process of trying to form
06:05a new government or is trying to remain as prime minister.
06:08And so what that means is that he needs confidence in parliament and there are big political forces in parliament
06:14that won't look kindly upon any effort to crack down on Iranian allies in Iraq.
06:22And he would necessarily lose those votes right away.
06:24So he's going to try to muddle through and straddle that line in order to try to remain as prime
06:30minister.
06:30So I wouldn't look to him currently to confront them that that's not going to happen in the current environment.
06:37And even after, if he manages to stay on as prime minister and manages to gain the confidence of parliament
06:43to form a new government, it'll he'll also very likely just try to continue to muddle through and try to
06:48just wave through this crisis.
06:50Just to survive it, hoping that these things will calm down.
06:54But currently, it seems that even if the Iranian regime survives this current war and if it does so, even
07:02if it's in a weakened state, it's very likely that it's going to put pressure on its internal analyze in
07:08Iraq to bear down on the prime minister.
07:12And at the same time, there's a strong suspicion that the United States won't play the blind eye anymore when
07:18it comes to Iraq.
07:19It's been extremely aggressive when it comes to Iran.
07:21Iraq is a much, much weaker country, and the United States has very significant military assets that it can deploy
07:28right away in Iraq.
07:30Iraq wasn't impacted by the wars or the bombing campaigns that Israel managed, that Israel waged regionally.
07:37But there's a strong suspicion that that's going to end over the coming period.
07:41So one way or the other, Iraq appears, it appears that Iraq will be impacted either because it's going to
07:46have to take a position in one direction or another, or it's going to be the victim of internal conflict
07:53once again, which we really hope won't happen because we've had a period of very strong relative peace over the
08:00past 10 years, which is really great.
08:01And everyone would really like for that to continue. But we're in a state of acute risk currently.
08:07Well, I do want to speak about another vulnerable position that Iraq is in because its economy depends heavily on
08:12oil, making it especially vulnerable.
08:15How is the ongoing conflict and regional tension impacting the country economically now?
08:22The impact is disastrous because Iraq relies almost entirely on revenues generated by the sale of oil and gas internationally.
08:31And currently, Iraq has been exporting around about zero barrels per day.
08:38So it's an absolute disaster for its national budget.
08:43The Iraqi government entered into a partial agreement with the Kurdistan regional government the other day to allow for a
08:49very small amount of oil to be exported through the north.
08:52If that goes through and if Iraq manages to export that oil in the north, it would represent around about
08:587% of its national production.
09:00So that 7% won't make much difference for the national picture.
09:05But even that's not guaranteed because, of course, the Iranians or another interest could bomb that at any second.
09:11The pipeline is extremely vulnerable to attack.
09:13So if this continues for much longer, the Iraqi state won't be able to pay basic salaries and pensions to
09:20its general population, which will inevitably lead to local strife.
09:24I mean, it's going to mean that people won't be able to buy basic necessities like food and medicine for
09:29their children and the elderly and so on and so forth.
09:32So it could not be worse for Iraq.
09:34I mean, Iraq currently is exporting close to nothing, which is a real disaster for the country.
09:40Saeed, it's great to get your insight on this.
09:41Thank you so much for joining us on the programme.
Comments