00:00I'm going to go over to Colorado and predict a breakout because, of course, I hammered the Colorado Rockies over
00:0852.5 wins.
00:09I also bet them 60-plus wins at plus 370, and I bet them 65 wins at plus 950.
00:16How are they going to get there?
00:18Ezekiel Tovar putting up a 5-F4 or higher for the Rockies.
00:24And I don't think that this is out of bounds crazy.
00:27In 2024, posted a 3.7 F4, 96 WRC plus, 45 doubles and 26 home runs with the ability to
00:38be an elite defender.
00:40He was in the 99th percentile in outs above average in 2024.
00:44He's always been able to hit all types of pitches, good numbers against both fastballs, breaking balls, off-speed pitches.
00:52He's only 24 years old. Most hitters like that struggle against spin.
00:59Tovar's been good across the board.
01:01And I also think another level that he can unlock in his profile is increasing the amount of stolen bases.
01:08He's got upper-end speed. In five games in the World Baseball Classic, he's already stolen two bases.
01:14And not to mention, I mean, the World Baseball Classic, he's been phenomenal for Team Venezuela.
01:19Been playing really good defense. He's hitting 435. He's got an OPS at 1190.
01:25But what we do know is that he's an elite defender. He's got 75th percentile speed.
01:31He's got the pop to hit 30 home runs. It's a great park to hit in to spray all of
01:37those doubles.
01:38He puts that all together, makes moderate improvements on offense.
01:43It's a four-to-five win shortstop. And if he takes a big leap, I don't think being a six
01:49-win player is out of the realm of possibility for Ezekiel Tovar in 2026.
01:55Not at all. And I just think also just having a competent team around him helps.
01:59I think having a competent front office, which we presume it will be now, it can't be less competent.
02:06Maybe arming him with a little bit more information and preparation because the biggest Achilles heel in Tovar's game is
02:11just his lack of approach and how aggressive he is.
02:14I mean, and it's not, he whiffs more than anybody in terms of cumulatively because he swings so much.
02:19It's not because he's going to swing and miss a ton. I think the bat's a ball is good enough
02:22there.
02:22He's always been aggressive, dating back to when I've covered him as a prospect.
02:25But I still think that's something that he can rein in. And to your point, there is the blend of
02:30sneaky, legit power and enough feel to hit to get to it if the approach stops undermining it.
02:38So I think with the defense, the speed in that ballpark, with a team that's going to be a little
02:42bit more competitive, with, I think, a little bit more information at their disposal instead of being the cavemen of
02:48MLB in terms of how they're approaching things out there,
02:51I think it's going to go a long way. And I hope it translates because Tovar is a really fun
02:56player to watch and is a player that, you know, reason why they extended him.
03:00Like, this is a guy that can be the usher to this next era for the Rockies to start to
03:06play a little bit more competitive baseball.
03:08To your point about the Rockies leaving the Stone Age, Paul DiBodesta was brought in.
03:13And if you have seen the movie Moneyball, he's based off Jonah Hill's character.
03:18So for the first time in a long time, they're looking at real numbers here.
03:25And I know that sounds crazy, but the Rockies are making transactions.
03:28They weren't even making transactions before.
03:31They didn't have much of an R&D department until a few years ago.
03:35Yeah. I mean, this team has been perpetually behind the eight ball, perpetually behind.
03:41And now they're finally starting to get it. Now, we're not all the way there yet.
03:45Now, again, I think 65 wins would be awesome, but it's all about just getting better and better and better.
03:53And that's what I've seen from Ezekiel Tovar as well in spring in the World Baseball Classic so far.
03:57I think he's a really good player.
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