00:00O'Neal Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
00:04He had a 3.6 F war in 2024, negative three defensive runs saved.
00:10But last year, the 1.2 war, he hit 200, 298, 378, negative 14 defensive runs saved in center field.
00:22Can he get back to what he was in 2024 and potentially even build on that further?
00:28He was 57th percentile. Now it's above average. He does have a ton of speed.
00:33He does have a ton of range and he is working with Kevin Kiermaier this offseason.
00:37And could there be more buy-in from O'Neal Cruz, which at least visually has looked like a problem
00:43as the Pirates have continued to falter.
00:46But this season, it looks like a much better team. He's got top end bat speed, elite batted ball metrics.
00:52I don't think it's crazy to think that this guy could hit 25 home runs next year, steal 40 bases.
00:58Remember, he was 20 home runs, 38 stolen bases last year. Increased that WRC plus to 120.
01:05Again, he was around 111, probably 24, 86 in 2025.
01:10And all of that, again, if he plays average defense, could result in a four and a half win season.
01:17I think when O'Neal Cruz first came up, we saw big, big potential.
01:23And he's flashed it. He hasn't been consistent enough.
01:29But could it come this year in his age 27 season when the Pirates have the potential to break the
01:37playoff drought that has riddled this team since 2015?
01:41Yeah, this is an overwhelmingly positive episode, and I'm not here to throw cold water on breakout.
01:47So let me let me chip in here on fun with numbers.
01:50Let's combine spring training in the WBC.
01:53O'Neal Cruz in 11 games has only struck out four times.
01:57That is a 15 percent strikeout rate.
01:59I will say, and even fun with small numbers here, like he hasn't struck out in the entire WBC.
02:06Now, is he playing every day? No, but he hasn't struck out.
02:08And he's coming off the bench, you know, getting in these different spots here that that has been encouraging.
02:13He also I don't know if he needed it, but I think it's interesting.
02:16He added more muscle going into this year.
02:19And I think that'll just help him to get through 162 and maybe keep his energy up in the outfield.
02:25But also, how hard is this guy going to hit the ball if he's stronger now?
02:28I don't know. But maybe it widens his margin for error a little bit.
02:33He is kind of a brain breaker in the respect that O'Neal Cruz can continue to struggle with all
02:39of the things that I'm concerned about at a pretty like concerning clip.
02:43Right. But then do all of the things that you're saying you think he can do and be like a
02:49three and a half four one player.
02:50It'll be the weirdest version of that. You know, it'll be like the it's why everyone always brings up Joey
02:55Gallo and we talk about big whiff guys.
02:57But he could be a guy that has one of the highest strikeout rates in the league or is just
03:02one of the more volatile players in the league.
03:04But the highs are so high that he's going to end up being an aggregate, just a really solid player.
03:10So I look at it more as you saying he's going to get his more often.
03:14And if he gets his more often, I like it. A full fledged breakout from him, though, is legitimately, you
03:20know, one of the more dynamic players in Major League Baseball.
03:22I think the full fledged breakout, what I'm talking about is vast improvements on defense, because I think we see
03:28the offensive profile.
03:29We know he's going to strike out, but can he hedge that with a walk rate above 10 percent?
03:34Can he hedge that with a hard hit rate that is approaching 58, 59, 60 percent?
03:39But it's the defense where he's been a net negative over the last two seasons with more buy in.
03:44He also has a cannon of an arm. He has tons of speed.
03:47There's almost no excuse now, now that he's gotten more competitive team.
03:51Exactly. More competitive team, more buy in.
03:53If he can be an above average defender, which he is talented enough to do so.
03:59That's how we get into the five, potentially six F war range, because we all can see the talent on
04:06the field.
04:07It's just about him being consistent.
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