00:00Aram, I'm going to stick in the National League East, but I'm going to go with a pitcher.
00:06And this is a pitcher that you and I both watched at the Futures game, I think four or five
00:13years ago.
00:14And it's not Shane Boz. It is the other guy who I pointed at and asked you,
00:19who is this guy sitting 100 miles an hour with ride?
00:24And why isn't he at the top of a rotation yet?
00:28And you said, well, he's been kind of banged up and he has been kind of banged up, but now
00:33he's healthy.
00:34Cade Cavalli of the Washington Nationals.
00:39Now, I looked into his data and it still looks pretty good.
00:44I know the knuckle curve had a 351 batting average against it, but a 239 expected batting average
00:51and a negative seven degree launch angle against.
00:54Again, these are short samples, but it also comes with a 39% whiff rate.
00:59And when you just turn on the TV and watch Cade Cavalli, it objectively looks like a nasty pitch.
01:05It just got unlucky results last year.
01:08And that's his most used pitch.
01:10Second most used pitch is the heater, which he sits 97.1 miles an hour and opponents only hit 220
01:17against it.
01:18The changeup posted a 40% whiff rate last year and his sinker, which he also sits 97 with negative
01:26one degree launch angle against a lot of negative launch angles.
01:30Yeah.
01:30Does what increase that ground ball rate?
01:3355% ground ball rate last year.
01:36He's a big guy, six, four, 225 pounds full runway this year.
01:41And he's finally healthy.
01:43Like he was once a top pitching prospect in baseball.
01:47The reason he has continued to fall is because he's been perpetually injured, but now he was just named the
01:54opening day starter for the Washington Nationals.
01:56They have no other reason than just to let him run.
01:59He has good stuff, keeps the ball on the ground.
02:04The strikeout rate should continue to climb.
02:06Like, I think this is going to be a guy who, you know, I think the innings might not quite
02:11be there just because first full season, but is 140 innings in his future is an era below four in
02:19his future.
02:20I think that could be the case in 2026.
02:23That's why Cade Cavalli is my second breakout pick.
02:25His spring has been fantastic too.
02:28I mean, he, he has been unbelievable.
02:30I know it's only three short outings, but I mean, he has gone two innings, four innings, and three innings
02:35and combined has only allowed one hit.
02:38So that's nine innings, one hit, no earned runs, one unearned, two walks, nine Ks.
02:44He looks like, he looks like a guy that should be starting on opening day, you know, for a rebuilding
02:49team.
02:49I love it.
02:50And the thing with Cavalli that you mentioned, it's a health, even got a little bit of a late start
02:54last year.
02:55And then, but the biggest positive was that he pitched through the year healthy, which is the first time he's
03:01done that, you know, really in a, in a very, very long time.
03:05All the talent there.
03:06The other little piece I think that you alluded to is, I think there's more whiffs in the tank as
03:11he executes better in general, but the fact that he can get you out in two different ways.
03:15And he can, I like guys like this because he'll have his starts if, if he's on this year and
03:19he has a year that you think he can have where he six innings, 10 Ks.
03:23But if, if the swing and miss stuff isn't there, the knuckle curve isn't there that day, he can still
03:27maneuver his way through six innings, three Ks, but getting a bunch of ground balls and it's two earned runs,
03:33right?
03:33So when you can get the ground ball outs and the strikeouts opens up a lot more doors for you.
03:38And I think that's where Cavalli is heading into his age 27 season.
03:41Now, what I will admit is, is the ERA going to look as good as I want it to probably
03:48not because the nationals defense in the infield is that very good.
03:51So he might put the ball on the ground was generally a good thing, but will they be fielded is
03:57the question.
03:57Like, I think his FIP is going to be awesome.
03:59That's the nerd that I am the ERA.
04:02I hope, I hope, but Mackenzie Gore has tried and it hasn't exactly gone well when he keeps the ball
04:09on the ground.
04:09Like this nationals defense is just not great.
04:13So the overall results might not be as good as I might want them, but from a pure talent perspective,
04:18I think a 3-8-0 FIP could certainly be in his future next year.
04:22Yeah.
04:23And I think they might defend a little bit better here in CJ Abrams is bought in on it.
04:27If Naz Nunez is playing second base every day, that's going to help.
04:31Brady House can pick it a little bit.
04:32So we'll see if it can get a little bit better out there, but the outfield doesn't help either with
04:36Lyle and Wood.
04:37Those two guys should be way better defensively than they are.
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