00:00Tonight, it might be 90-10 Venezuelan fans, and the noise is probably going to be 100-0.
00:08And that's one of the reasons why I think Venezuela can upset the United States.
00:14Right now, Venezuela is a big underdog on bad MGM, about plus 220, plus 235, anywhere in that range.
00:22Makes sense.
00:23The United States is better on paper.
00:24They have last ABs, and they also have a more rested bullpen.
00:28And it just came out that Garrett Whitlock will be available tonight.
00:31David Bednar, likely not.
00:33Mason Miller, still TBD.
00:36So, on paper, United States is the better team.
00:39We know this.
00:40But Arm, I looked up what the projected lineup has done against Eduardo Rodriguez in the past.
00:46Oh, gosh.
00:47Would you be surprised to know that over 137 plate appearances, the U.S. is slashing 239, 343, 395 against
00:57him.
00:58That's a 738 OPS and a 24.1% strikeout rate.
01:05And then you look at what both teams have done in this tournament so far.
01:10Both have posted a 3.00 ERA in 54 innings, both pitching staffs.
01:15And both offenses are hitting 272 and 271, both having OPSs over 800.
01:23All I'm saying is, I think the line is a little bit inflated.
01:28I'm picking Venezuela to upset the United States.
01:31I'm sure people are going to be thrilled with that.
01:33It is what it is.
01:34It is what it is.
01:34I follow my model projection, and my model projection is about plus 184.
01:39At plus 235, I'm in.
01:40Well, I think any time you have, and we've talked about this, like Venezuela doesn't have maybe the superstar power,
01:47and they've got some stars, but superstar power top to bottom that U.S. or D.R. has.
01:52But when you have a team full of above-average big leaguers, any given night, anything can happen.
01:58I even think that was a little bit of the difference between Italy is, like, they have a team full
02:01of guys that I think will eventually get to the big leagues or are getting their footing in the big
02:04leagues compared to a team full of above-average big leaguers.
02:08And a team full of above-average big leaguers can beat anyone on any given night, just like how the
02:12– even lesser, this isn't a team full of above-average big leaguers, but the Rockies can beat the Yankees
02:18or Dodgers in any given night as well.
02:20It's not going to happen as often, but if it's a one-game playoff, anything can happen.
02:23I don't think the gap is that big either.
02:25I think it's smaller than that, even with comparing this Team USA to Venezuela, especially, you know, with Ronald Acuna
02:31at the top and some of the guys swinging it the way that they're swinging it.
02:34I think the really interesting part is that you don't really have this huge starting pitcher advantage.
02:40I think long-term, yeah.
02:42I think Nolan McClain is going to be a far better pitcher, but we'll see, you know, how he bounces
02:46back after the last start.
02:47I think he'll throw pretty well, but at the same time, it's probably going to be a shorter leash, and
02:52I think we're going to see both bullpens get involved relatively early,
02:55at which point it should be advantage USA, but look at the way this Venezuelan bullpen is throwing.
03:00So, to your point, like, of course, I'm going to pick USA to win if it was outright who is
03:05winning, but from the value proposition, I agree.
03:09I don't think it should be that lopsided in the favor of Team USA from, you know, just the betting
03:14angle of what the implied probability is, what, 60, 70% for them to win?
03:18Exactly.
03:19It's just too much.
03:20Yeah.
03:20It's just too much to me.
03:21And I think...
03:21In one game?
03:22If it was a three-game set, another story.
03:25Yeah, exactly.
03:25Like, if you told me that it was Paul Skeens on the mound versus Eduardo Rodriguez, I might feel a
03:30different way, or Tarek Skubal, or even potentially Logan Webb.
03:34And it's not like Eduardo Rodriguez pitched beautifully against the Dominican Republic, went two and two-thirds, gave up three
03:42earned on two home runs, but he did strike out five, and he's pitched in a lot of big games
03:47before.
03:48Like, this is a big game for Nolan McClain.
03:51Let's not underrate that.
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