- 5 hours ago
Shan and RJ tapped College Basketball Kegger and previewed the upcoming Sweet 16 matchups. They broke down point spreads, potential upsets, standout players, and key betting trends. They also discussed historical stats, bracket updates, and more.
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00:00Today, today's going to be a sport. It's fun, but good sports day. Today's a sports marathon.
00:06Yeah, it's a good sport. It starts at 3 o'clock right here on 105. I think it's 3.15
00:10actually.
00:11But either way, it's going to be a late one. The last game, it's scheduled for 9.05.
00:16If this thing starts before 9.20, I might just, I'm not going to do anything.
00:24I don't know why I would even say I might. It's some kind of veiled threat.
00:27But yeah, I'll be stunned if it starts before 9.20.
00:31But you get going with Texas and Purdue. Purdue is a 7.5 point favorite.
00:36Then you go roll, as it should be, rolling right in to Iowa-Nebraska at 6.30.
00:41So a 20-minute stagger. And then you get the second games of the night, 8.45-ish, Arkansas-Arizona.
00:47That should be fun. That game should have 5 million points.
00:50And then Illinois-Houston to wrap it up, those two games.
00:54The Tex game will be on CBS. It'll be on Channel 11.
00:57So that's going to have a big number.
00:59Give me your 1-4 of interest tonight.
01:03Arkansas-Arizona, I think is number 1.
01:07That's going to be a high-scoring game.
01:08I need Arizona to get taken out.
01:12If you're Houston, if you're Duke winning it all,
01:15the majority of people, the experts, quote-unquote, on ESPN,
01:19I feel like Arizona, West Coast team not winning it since 1997,
01:23is the majority of the selections.
01:24Yeah, they had a lot of them.
01:26They do.
01:27And this should be an interesting game because Arkansas-
01:30I mean, I don't need it because I'm good, as always.
01:33I'm Gucci.
01:34I'm money.
01:35I'm not going to lose the morning show bet,
01:37but it would distance even further because I have Duke winning it.
01:41Yeah, if Arkansas-
01:43So you want Arizona to lose, you said?
01:45Sure.
01:45Yeah.
01:46Right, because I have Arkansas winning as well in the bracket.
01:49I think the other two have Arizona.
01:51So you have Arkansas winning the game.
01:53You have this matchup.
01:54Yeah, I have Arkansas in the Final Four.
01:56Okay.
01:58I don't know how I feel about that now.
02:00And let's see if tonight's a best player I am he moment for Acuff.
02:04That'd be nice.
02:05Number four, number one, I'm the man.
02:09I got the draft stock that is shooting up through the roof.
02:12Ton of discussions here in DFW about him.
02:15Let's see if this is an I am he that we're talking about at this time tomorrow.
02:18Yeah, I hope so.
02:19But then again, if the Mavs don't move up from six and they actually drop,
02:22I hope he sucks tonight and he falls and he just tanks his stock
02:26and then we get to get him.
02:27But we got four games today, four games tomorrow.
02:31First things first.
02:32So Arkansas-Arizona is one for you.
02:34Then what?
02:34Okay, Arkansas-Arizona is number one for me.
02:36And then Illinois-Houston game is going to be really, really good.
02:40That's a 2-3.
02:40Yeah, that's going to be really good.
02:42Then Texas-Purdue.
02:43Yeah.
02:44And then Iowa-Nebraska.
02:45Iowa-Nebraska might actually be the closest.
02:48So I'm just kind of bored with Iowa.
02:50Well, it's got the closest point spread.
02:52Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of Iowa.
02:57They run kind of a boring style and it is what it is,
03:01but that's probably the least intriguing for me.
03:05Jacob Ray in for Pepe.
03:06How is your bracket looking?
03:08Did you have Texas Tech, your Red Raiders, going farther than this
03:11or right about where they went out?
03:13I had them losing to Alabama.
03:15I got enough crap during KNC.
03:18They convinced me to switch my pick from Akron to Texas Tech, and I did.
03:22And I took Tech in the first round.
03:23But look, Alabama is just so good.
03:26You were going to take Akron over them.
03:27I was going to take Akron over them.
03:29Whoa.
03:30I was really good.
03:31And for the entire game, it was played in a five-point window
03:34until Tech pulled away at the end.
03:36So I was like, oh, I might not have been wrong.
03:37I had the zips.
03:38I had the zips, too.
03:39Their offense is really, really good.
03:41I was drinking the Kool-Aid.
03:43I mean, you both lost by you.
03:44Yeah, we did.
03:45It's not in good shape.
03:46I think I'm like top 71%, I want to say.
03:50But I'm just in my own little bracket with my girlfriend.
03:52She's in the top 16%.
03:53She does not know ball.
03:55Of course, ball.
03:56We're good to go.
03:57Top 60, that's good, right?
03:58Or is that bad?
03:59No, she's like, sorry, bottom 16.
04:03Bottom 16.
04:03Bottom 16.
04:04I thought you were like, top 16.
04:05I was like, damn.
04:06That's usually the way it happens.
04:07That's the way it happens.
04:08No, bottom 16.
04:09Bottom 16.
04:10Bottom 16.
04:10Wow, you couldn't even, like, try.
04:13You got steaks?
04:14You got steaks on the line?
04:15Loser asked.
04:15We do.
04:16What is it?
04:16I can't say it over the air.
04:18Oh, there you go.
04:19Just keep it as spicy at 22.
04:20That's that 22-year-old spicy bet.
04:22Love it.
04:23Wow, you get to pick whose keys go in the jar, huh?
04:25Okay.
04:26All right, so.
04:27So, one seed.
04:29So, we got the only one seed tonight is going to be Arizona.
04:33But one seeds win their Sweet 16 matchup about 80% of the time.
04:37I didn't know that.
04:38And two seeds win about 70% of the time.
04:41So, with all four two seeds remaining, history says one two seed, Texas-Purdue, who knows, one two seed is
04:52not going to win today or tomorrow.
04:55Okay.
04:56History says that.
04:57And Texas is an 11 seed.
04:5911 seeds are the most likely double-digit seed to make a deep run.
05:05Okay.
05:0634% of the time, the 11 seeds that make the Sweet 16 win in the Sweet 16.
05:13And the other two seeds, of course, UConn against Michigan State and then Iowa State against your Vols.
05:19And then Illinois and Houston is another two seed against Illinois.
05:23So, one of those four, history says, is going to lose.
05:27It's going to lose this weekend.
05:29By the way, the money is rolling in on Texas.
05:32Really?
05:33Rolling in.
05:34The number, the spread was seven and a half.
05:37It hasn't moved a ton, but the money is rolling in on the Longhorns.
05:43They are top 15 in offense and strength of schedule.
05:47They're a little bit live here.
05:48Also, the Sweet 16, when two teams are five seeds or above in the same game and they play, the
05:55lower-seeded team wins about 60%.
05:57Now, Nebraska is not a five seed.
06:00They're four, but they're the last four seed.
06:02They're the last four seed, so the weakest of the four.
06:06So, double-digit dogs also, this is for Iowa, winning as a double-digit dog the week before,
06:13they have never, never won the next round in the NCAA tournament.
06:19Whoa.
06:19Never.
06:20So, they're one and five against the spread.
06:22So, taking Iowa in this game, probably not the smartest thing that you could do.
06:28So, maybe I should go and get Nebraska with the points?
06:31And with the points?
06:31I think that's a great play.
06:34And that stat is saying it's never happened?
06:36So, in the...
06:37For a team in Iowa's position.
06:39So, the seventh team in the last 20 years to play in the Sweet 16 after being a double-digit
06:44dog in the previous round.
06:46Those teams are 0-6.
06:48Straight up.
06:50You know, and since it's only a one-point spread...
06:52Yeah.
06:53You know, if you think they're going to lose, then they're going to lose.
06:55Underdog has Nebraska with three and a half.
06:57Ooh, wow.
06:58Ooh.
06:59Here's another thing.
07:00Arkansas is a four-point underdog to Arizona.
07:03Coach Cal, 7-1 in the NCAA tournament against the spread as an underdog of four or more.
07:10And Arizona has never won a Sweet 16 game with this coach.
07:14Sean Miller at Texas, 11-4 against the spread as an underdog in the NCAA tournament.
07:20And then double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16 cover 61% of the time.
07:26And that's what Texas is.
07:27Double-digit seed.
07:28They cover 61%.
07:30How about this one?
07:32Last 20 years, from this point of the tournament on, where the total is 160 or above, so 160 points,
07:40both teams, and the over-under,
07:41the under is 5-1.
07:455-1.
07:46Rick Pitino at St. John's.
07:48They have never hit the over in the NCAA tournament together.
07:54So, Pitino at St. John's, that over has never played.
07:59And John Shire, as a tournament coach, 10-3 to the under.
08:0410-3 at Duke.
08:06So, the under is a stat you might want to take there.
08:09You got me fingering over here.
08:12Oh, baby.
08:14Oh, my gosh.
08:15Aiden's already in here.
08:17He's about to save that one.
08:18Setting up the fan camp for Jared Sandler.
08:20You got my thumbs working, baby.
08:22All right.
08:22Okay.
08:22I'm looking at Texas plus 7-1-1.
08:25Nebraska to win.
08:27$40 gets me $125.
08:30Woo-wee.
08:31On underdog.
08:33Woo-wee.
08:33Is there another one of the tips that you just gave?
08:37Because, again, these are the types of things I use to win or not lose our bracket every single year.
08:42Is there another one screaming at you to go ahead and put down all of those?
08:46The Pitino St. John's coupled with Duke is what I love.
08:50How about this?
08:51Rick Barnes.
08:52My guy.
08:53I love Rick.
08:53The Deacon.
08:54I love Rick Barnes.
08:56I like to – maybe this isn't just you.
08:59I like to – if I'm going to place multiple bets, I want it all for that night, that day.
09:04I don't want to wait.
09:05You know?
09:05So, like, I'll do something for tonight and then do whatever you're about to give for tomorrow with St. John's,
09:13Vols, Duke.
09:14I like to not have a carryover.
09:16I need my instant gratification or punishment.
09:19Yeah, I like the Texas to cover because the 61% of the time, those double-digit seeds cover the
09:28line.
09:29I love Arkansas.
09:31I love Arkansas to cover as well.
09:34And then I think the Nebraska one plays as well.
09:38How about this?
09:39Rick Barnes is an underdog in the Sweet 16.
09:410-5 straight up.
09:43They're getting four and a half, so you can play the points there if you wanted to.
09:46That's a small margin.
09:48In the last five years, all 20 Final Four teams have had a minimum adjusted offensive rating of 118
09:57and a turnover and rebound differential of 150 or more for the year.
10:03Every single one of the Final Four teams have had that over the last five years.
10:09The two that do not qualify right now, Nebraska and Alabama.
10:14There's the only two left that don't qualify.
10:17RJ Choppy, if you want to get some updated picks in outside of your bracket on underdog,
10:22use promo code TOLO.
10:23What's going on at UNC?
10:25Okay, so we knew they fired, I should say, Hubert Davis, and they let him go.
10:30And he had been there for a few years.
10:33Did make a Final Four back about four years ago.
10:37One ACC head coach told Jeff Goodman,
10:41I had hoped he was the coach there forever.
10:44No one in the ACC was scared of him.
10:47Dang.
10:47I'm worried they hire someone really good because if you get a big-time guy at UNC,
10:51they could be right there with Duke again.
10:54Now, of course, Carolina fans are like, hang on,
10:55we've got more Final Four appearances than Duke does in the last decade.
11:00But that is a very interesting statement that a head coach, harsh words.
11:06Same thing people are saying about the UNC football coach as well.
11:10Oh, with Bill, yeah.
11:11A lot of people wanting him just to go ahead and stay there.
11:13Yep, they just wanted to stay there because they don't think that he's got what it takes
11:17to cut his teeth down there at the college level.
11:19They were 24-6 before the Caleb Wilson injury, and they basically just never won a game.
11:24Vegas has sent me the update on the UNC favorite from BetOnline.
11:29It is Billy Donovan.
11:31Okay.
11:32And that sent you down a little rabbit hole yesterday.
11:34It did because...
11:36Where is he again?
11:37How old is he again?
11:38He was a two-time national champion coach at Florida.
11:43Yeah.
11:43And then he's like, you know what, I'm just going to try my hand at the NBA.
11:47And, you know, didn't he become the head coach and then take it back and then go back again?
11:51I feel like he did with Orlando.
11:55But, you know, would you rather be like a national championship coach at college or just a completely
12:01anonymous head coach in the NBA?
12:03And he feels like an anonymous head coach.
12:04He is.
12:06Donovan's a favorite.
12:07Then TJ.
12:09Olsenberger at Iowa State.
12:11Olsenberger at 4-1.
12:12Tommy Lloyd.
12:14Nate Oates.
12:14Brad Stevens has already said no.
12:16Dusty May.
12:18Sean May.
12:19Todd Golden.
12:20Mark Fuse.
12:21Scott Drew.
12:21I'll tell you, if I'm...
12:22I'm throwing a bag of money at Dusty May at Michigan.
12:25He's done a great job there.
12:28I mean, you could try your hand at Todd Golden at Florida.
12:33You know, he's a good coach.
12:35Obviously, he won a national championship.
12:37But Dusty May is the first guy that would come to mind for me.
12:40Because, you know, there's not going to be...
12:42There isn't...
12:43You know, when they hired Roy Williams, there was an obvious...
12:46There was an obvious choice.
12:48He was in the family and he was a great coach.
12:50They don't have that right now.
12:50There it is.
12:51Choppy getting you set for the madness with the Sweet 16 tonight.
12:54All right.
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